ITRPV Ninth Edition 2018

International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaic (ITRPV) 2017 Results Ninth Edition, March 2018 In Cooperation withInternational Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaic (ITRPV) Results 2017 Ninth Edition, March 2018 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Content 1. Executive summary 3 2. Approach 4 2.1. Materials 4 2.2. Processes 4 2.3. Products 4 3. PV learning curve 4 4. Cost consideration 5 5. Results of 2017 7 5.1. Materials 7 5.1.1. Materials — crystallization and wafering 7 5.1.2. Materials — cell processing 10 5.1.3. Materials — modules 12 5.2. Processes 19 5.2.1. Processes — manufacturing 19 5.2.2. Processes — technology 24 5.3. Products 34 6. PV systems 44 7. Outlook 49 7.1. PV learning curve 49 7.2. PV market development considerations 51 7.3. Accuracy of roadmap projections 57 7.4. Projection accuracy and deviations (by P. Baliozian Fraunhofer ISE) 60 7.5. Final remarks 61 8. References 63 9. Acknowledgement 65 9.1. Contributors and authors 65 9.2. Image Source 66 10. Note 66 11. Supporters 67 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 1. Executive summary The photovoltaic (PV) industry needs to provide power generation products that can compete with both conventional energy sources and other renewable sources of energy. An international technolo- gy roadmap can help to identify trends and to define requirements for any necessary improvements. The aim of the International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaic (ITRPV) is to inform suppliers and customers about anticipated technology trends in the field of crystalline silicon (c-Si) photovoltaics and to stimulate discussion on required improvements and standards. The objective of the roadmap is not to recommend detailed technical solutions for identified areas in need of improvement, but in- stead to emphasize to the PV community the need for improvement and to encourage the develop- ment of comprehensive solutions. The present, ninth edition of the ITRPV was jointly prepared by 55 leading international poly-Si producers, wafer suppliers, c-Si solar cell manufacturers, module manu- facturers, PV equipment suppliers, and production material providers, as well as PV research institutes and consultants. The present publication covers the entire c-Si PV value chain from crystallization, wa- fering, and cell manufacturing to module manufacturing and PV systems. Significant parameters set out in earlier editions are reviewed along with several new ones, and discussions about emerging trends in the PV industry are reported. The global PV module production capacity at the end of 2017 is assumed to be 130 GWp based on the 2016 data and a utilization of 80% [1, 2]; the market share of above 90% for the c-Si market and below 10% for thin-film technologies is unchanged [1]. This roadmap describes developments and trends for the c-Si based photovoltaic technology. The PV module market increased significantly in 2017 while in parallel the module price reduction continued, but much slower than during 2016. The implementation of advanced cell technologies and the use of improved materials resulted in higher average module power. The PV manufacturers increased their production capacities and con- tinued cost reduction and the implementation of measures to increase cell efficiency. The price expe- rience curve continued with its historic learning with a slight increase to about 22.8%. The PV industry could keep this learning rate up over the next few years by linking cost reduction measures with the implementation of enhanced cell concepts with improved Si-wafers, improved cell front and rear sides, refined layouts, and improved module technologies. This aspect is again discussed in this revi- sion of the ITRPV. Improvements in these areas will result in 60 cell modules with an average output power of about 325 Wp for mc-Si and about 345 Wp p-type mono-Si respectively by 2028. 72 cell modules are expected to reach 390 Wp with mc-Si and 415 Wp for p-type mono Si respectively at that time. The combination of reduced manufacturing costs and increased cell and module performance will support the reduction of PV system costs and thus ensure the long-term competitiveness of PV power generation. Roadmap activity continues in cooperation with VDMA, and updated information will be published annually to ensure comprehensive communication between manufacturers and suppliers throughout the value chain. More information is available at www.itrpv.net. 4 APPROACH 2. Approach All topics throughout the value chain are divided into three areas: materials, processes, and products. Data was collected from the participating companies and processed anonymously by VDMA. The par- ticipating companies jointly agreed, that the results are reported in this roadmap publication. All plot- ted data points of the parameters reported are median values generated from the input data. As stated above, the topics are split into three areas: materials, processes, and products. Here, we ad- dress issues linked to crystallization, wafers, cells, modules, and PV systems for each of these areas respectively. 2.1. Materials The requirements and trends concerning raw materials and consumables used within the value chain are described in this section. Reducing the consumption or replacing of some materials will be neces- sary in order to ensure availability, avoid environmental risks, reduce costs, and increase efficiency. Price development plays a major role in making PV-generated electricity competitive with other re- newable and fossil sources of energy. 2.2. Processes New technologies and materials, and highly productive manufacturing equipment, are required to reduce production costs. By providing information on key production figures, as well as details about processes designed to increase cell efficiency and module power output, this roadmap constitutes a guide to new developments and aims to support their progress. The section on processes identifies manufacturing and technology issues for each segment of the value chain. Manufacturing topics cen- ter on raising productivity, while technological developments aim to ensure higher cell and module efficiencies. 2.3. Products Each part of the value chain has a final product. The product section therefore discusses the antici- pated development of key elements such as ingots, wafers, c-Si solar cells, -modules and PV systems over the coming years. 3. PV learning curve It is obvious that cost reductions in PV production processes should also result in price reductions [3]. Fig. 1 shows the price experience curve for PV modules, displaying the average module sales prices - at the end of the corresponding time period - (in 2017 US$/Wp) as a function of cumulative module shipments from 1976 to 12/2017 (in MWp) [1, 2, 4, 5, 6]. Displayed on a log-log scale, the plot changes to an approximately linear line until the shipment value of 3.1 GWp (shipments at the end of 2003), despite bends at around 100 MWp. This indicates that for every doubling of cumulative PV module shipments, the average selling price decreases according to the learning rate (LR). Considering all data points from 1976 until 2017 we found an LR of about 22.8% - a slight increase compared to the 22.5% in the 8 th edition. The large deviations from this LR plot in Fig.1 are caused by tremendous market fluc- tuations between 2003 and 2016. COST CONSIDERATION 5 The last two data points indicate the module shipment volumes in 2016, and 2017. For 2016 we as- sumed 76 GWp (2016 PV installation data in [1]). The 2017 value is calculated to 105 GWp: the aver- age installation of 2017 as assumed in [7-9] is calculated to be 99 GWp, for shipments we have added 6 GWp shipped to US warehouses until the end of 2017 in preparation of the “Suniva trade case” [10]. The corresponding module prices at the end of 2016 and 2017 are 0.37 US$/Wp and 0.34 US$/Wp re- spectively [6]. Based on this data the cumulated shipped module power is calculated to be approxi- mately 414 GWp.The calculated worldwide installed module power reached 402 GWp end of 2017 after 303 GWp in 2016 [1]. Fig. 1: Learning curve for module price as a function of cumulative PV module shipments. 4. Cost consideration Fig. 2 shows the price development of mc-Si modules from January 2011 to January 2018 with sepa- rate price trends for poly-Si, multi crystalline (mc) wafers, and cells [6]. After the tremendous price erosion during the second half of 2016 we saw a quite smooth price decline during 2017. Module pro- duction capacity is assumed to be 130 GWp, exceeding cell production capacity of 110 GWp at the end of 2017 due to additional capacity expansions [1, 2]. If capacity expansion will continue in 2018 without a further market increase, a critical oversupply situation may occur. PV module self-consump- tion in China lowers the risk but the final market growth remains unpredictable [7, 9, 11]. The inset of Fig. 2 shows the comparison of the proportion of prices attributable to silicon, wafer, cell, and module price. The overall price level difference between 01/2016 to 12/2017 is about 40% but between 01/2017 and 12/2017 the decrease was only about 9% and the share of the different price elements remained nearly constant during 2017. The price fraction of poly-Si is at around 23%. Wafer and cell 6 COST CONSIDERATION conversion prices decreased, and module conversion remained at 37% during 2017. Fig. 2: Price trends for poly-Si, mc-Si wafers, cells, and c-Si modules (assumption 12/2017: 4.2g poly-Si per Wp, average mc-Si cell efficiency of 18.85% {4.59Wp}); inset: comparison of the proportion of the price attributable to different module cost elements between 01/2011, 01/2016, and 12/2017 (1.60, 0.57, and 0.34 US$/Wp) [6]. The non-silicon module manufacturing costs are mainly driven by consumables and materials as dis- cussed in the c-Si PV module cost analysis in the 3rd edition of the ITRPV. Taken into account the fact that the anticipated global PV module production capacity of about 130 GWp in 2017 will further in- crease in 2018 due to continued capacity expansions, the production capacity will again exceed the predicted global market demand of 100 GWp in 2018 [9, 11]. Therefore, prices will not compensate for any cost increases as there is no shortage expected – in other words, the pressure on wafer, cell and - more painful - on module manufacturing — will persist. Achieving cost reductions in consuma- bles, and materials will be more difficult but have to be continued. Improving productivity and prod- uct performance will become even more important. The known three strategies, emphasized in former ITRPV editions help to address this challenge:  Continue the cost reduction per piece along the entire value chain by increasing the Overall Equipment Efficiency (OEE) of the installed production capacity and by using Si and non-Si materials more efficiently.  Introduce specialized module products for different market applications (i.e. tradeoff be- tween cost-optimized, highest volume products and higher price fully customized niche products).  Improve module power/cell efficiency without significantly increasing processing costs. Price Trend for c-Si modules 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1,0 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 1,7 1,8 01.2011 01.2012 01.2013 01.2014 01.2015 01.2016 01.2017 01.2018 Spot Pricing [USD/Wp] Silicon Multi Wafer Multi Cell Multi Module ITRPV 2018 Poly Si 26% Poly Si 12% Poly Si 23% Wafer 29% Wafer 23% Wafer 18% Cell 20% Cell 23% Cell 22% Module 25% Module 42% Module 37% 01_2011 01_2016 12_2017 RESULTS OF 2017 7 The latter implies that efficiency improvements need to be implemented with lean processes that re- quire minimum investment in new tool sets, including the extension of the service life of depreciated tool sets in order to avoid a significant increase in depreciation costs. It will remain difficult to introduce new, immature technologies that do not show reductions of the cost per Wp from the beginning. 5. Results of 2017 5.1. Materials 5.1.1. Materials — crystallization and wafering With around 23% share poly-Si remains the most expensive material of a c-Si module as discussed in 4. The Siemens and the FBR (Fluidized Bed Reactor) processes remain the main technologies for the production of poly-Si. Fig. 3 shows that Siemens process will stay the mainstream technology during the next 10 years. As FBR processing is consuming less electricity it is assumed that its share will in- crease against Siemens processing. Other technologies such umg-Si or direct wafering technologies are not expected to yield significant cost advantages compared to conventional poly-Si technologies over the coming years but are expected to be available in the market with a small market share be- tween about 1% in 2017 to around 9% in 2028. Fig. 3: Expected change in the market share of poly-Si production technologies. Silicon feedstock technology World market share [%] 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 Siemens FBR other ITRPV 20188 RESULTS OF 2017 The introduction of diamond wire sawing (DWS) has been a significant improvement in terms of wa- fering process cost reductions. DWS nearly completely replaced slurry-based wafer sawing for mono- Si as shown in Fig. 4. Fig.4: Market share of wafering technologies for mono-Si. Fig. 5: Market share of wafering technologies for mc-Si. Wafering technology for mono-Si World market share [%] 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 slurry based electroplated diamonds resin bond diamonds ITRPV 2018 Wafering technology for mc-Si World market share [%] 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 slurry based electroplated diamonds resin bond diamonds ITRPV 2018 RESULTS OF 2017 9 Despite slurry-based wafering was still mainstream in mc-Si wafer sawing in 2017, it is expected to be very fast replaced by DWS technology with a market share of already greater than 50% in 2018 as shown in Fig. 5. This change is supported by the fast introduction of wet chemical texturing methods for DWS mc-Si as will be discussed in 5.2.2. Electroplated diamond wire is considered as the dominating wire mate- rial. We do not believe that other new wafer manufacturing techniques, especially kerf less technolo- gies, will gain significant market shares, mainly due to the maturity of the established sawing tech- nologies. Producing thinner wafers, reducing kerf loss, increasing recycling rates, and reducing the cost of con- sumables, can yield savings. Wire diameters will be reduced continuously over the next few years. Fig. 6: Recycling rates of some consumables in wafering. Fig. 6 shows the expected recycling rates of SiC, Diamond wire and Si. There will be more recycling of Si and diamond wire over the next years while SiC recycling rate is expected to increase only slightly from 80% to about 90% within the next 10 years. DWS results in significant higher utilization of po