户用光伏市场回顾及未来展望-IHS谢锋

© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.全球户用光伏系统市场回顾及未来展望REVIEW AND OUTLOOK OF GLOBAL RESIDENTIAL PV MARKET家用光伏系统推广会无锡，中国2 Nov 2016Frank Xie – 高级分析师 – 光伏+86 21 24229042/ 185 1218 9970Frank.xie@ihsmarkit.comContents© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.‮Introduction to IHS Solar and Energy Storage team (IHS光 伏及储能团队 介绍 )‮Review of Global Residential PV Market in 2015（ 2015年全球户用光伏市场回顾）‮Review and Outlook of China Residential PV Market （国内户用光伏市场回顾及展望）© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.Introduction to IHS Solar and Energy Storage Team IHS光伏及储能团队 介绍3© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.IHS是 NYSE上市的行业信息、分析和咨询服务提供商。 2015年 ， 公司 拥有 9000名员工，全球 销售额为 26亿美元。IHS AEROSPACE, DEFENCE since 2012, self-consumption is more profitable than FiT 案例分析：德国15Development of residential FiT and retail electricity prices in GermanySource: IHS © 2016 IHS248365240472791759674591355217 229250 275300 31400.10.20.30.40.50.601002003004005006007008009002006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Residential (MW) FiT (EUR/kWh) Electricity price (EUR/kWh)MWEUR/kWh© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.Batteries per residential PV systemGermany Battery per new residential PV system in 2015 by state 储能在德国户用系统的应用16• Due to the fallen battery prices, storagedevices are becoming increasinglypopular in Germany‘s residential sector.• However, the profitability of batteries in PV systems depends on many, oftenvarying factors, including daily electricityconsumption profiles of households, andprofitability can often not be guaranteed.• Hence, investments into PV batteries arestill often based on idealistic motives.• In 2015, the average number of batteriesbought per newly installed residential PV system ranged between 77% in the city ofBremen and 18% in Thuringia. The wealthy state of Bavaria in the South ofGermany reached a percentage of 61%.Mecklenburg-VorpommernPOLANDDENMARK SWEDENGermanyCZECHREPUBLICAUSTRIASWITZERLANDFRANCELUX.BELGIUMNETHERLANDSBrandenburgBerlinSaxony-AnhaltThuringiaBaden-WürttembergBavariaSaarlandRhineland-PalatinateHesseNorth Rhine-WestphaliaLower SaxonyHamburgSchleswig-HolsteinBremenSaxonyMagdeburgDresdenMunichStuttgartCologneDüsseldorfHannover00 100 Miles100 Kilometers10%20%30%40%50%60%70%© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.Residential PV capacity per capita is highest in US state markets with local incentives and net metering 案例分析：美国California50 WattArizonaMassachusettsLouisianaHawaiiNew JerseyCumulative residential PV capacity per capita by US state (Watts) at the end of 2015ColoradoNevada© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.Review and Outlook of China Residential PV Market 国内 户用光伏市场回顾及 展望18INTPOW networking event Intersolar 23 June 2016© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 19中国户用光伏市场的发展趋势分析驱动因素• 国家政策推进助力：光伏扶贫 -万家光伏屋顶等项目• 分布式光伏发展模式趋于成熟• 长三 角、珠三角及环渤海地区消费电价提高，带来户用系统盈利可能限制因素• 地方经济条件限制• 适合发展的屋顶资源匮乏• 光伏补贴拖欠问题仍持续© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.2015年之前，户用光伏系统占年度新增装机 1%以下；预计至2020年，户用光伏系统装机将占整体装机 15%左右2005,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,0002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020户用 商用 地面Forecast on Residential PV Market Development in ChinaSource: IHS © 2016 IHSMWdc© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.Conclusions 结论• From 2016 to 2020, global residential PV market is shifting from EU to Americas and APAC. • The subsidy pattern of residential PV system is changing from pure FiT to a mix of self-consumption and FiT.• Energy storage is forecast to become an important part of the residential system.• Chinese residential PV market is set to take off since 2017, benefit from the national poverty relief policy and DPV development scheme. IHS forecast the sector to grow to 15% of annual installation in 2020.• 2016年至 2020年，全球户用光伏市场将由欧洲逐步转移到美洲和亚太地区。• 户用光伏市场的补贴模式正在由纯补贴模式向补贴与自发自用结合转变。• 储能系统预计将成为户用光伏系统的重要组成部分。• 得益于光伏扶贫及分布式光伏政策的支持，国内户用光伏市场将有望于 2017年实现实质增长。 IHS预计 至 2020年，户用光伏系统将占年度新增装机的 15%。21© 2016 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 22Questions?谢锋高级分析师 -光伏IHS Markit座机： 021-24229042手机： 185 1218 9970Frank.Xie@ihsmarkit.com