ITRPV 2019

International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaic (ITRPV) 2018 Results Tenth Edition, March 2019 In Cooperation with 10 th Edition International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaic (ITRPV) Results 2018 Tenth Edition, March 2019 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Content 1. Executive summary 3 2. Approach 4 2.1. Materials 4 2.2. Processes 4 2.3. Products 4 3. PV learning curve 4 4. Cost consideration 5 5. Results of 2018 7 5.1. Materials 7 5.1.1. Materials – crystallization and wafering 7 5.1.2. Materials – cell processing 9 5.1.3. Materials – modules 14 5.2. Processes 20 5.2.1. Processes – manufacturing 20 5.2.2. Processes – technology 28 5.3. Products 40 6. PV systems 53 7. Outlook 59 7.1. PV learning curve 59 7.2. PV market development considerations 61 7.3. Accuracy of roadmap projections 66 7.4. Final remarks 69 8. References 70 9. Acknowledgement 72 9.1. Contributors and authors 72 9.2. Image Source 73 10. Note 73 11. Sponsors 74 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 1. Executive summary The photovoltaic (PV) industry needs to provide power generation products that can compete with both conventional energy sources and other renewable sources of energy. An international technolo- gy roadmap can help to identify trends and to define requirements for any necessary improvements. The aim of the International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaic (ITRPV) is to inform suppliers and customers about anticipated technology trends in the field of crystalline silicon (c-Si) photovoltaics and to stimulate discussion on required improvements and standards. The objective of the roadmap is not to recommend detailed technical solutions for identified areas in need of improvement, but in- stead to emphasize to the PV community the need for improvement and to encourage the develop- ment of comprehensive solutions. The present, tenth edition of the ITRPV was jointly prepared by 55 leading international poly-Si producers, wafer suppliers, c-Si solar cell manufacturers, module manu- facturers, PV equipment suppliers, and production material providers, as well as PV research institutes and consultants. The present publication covers the entire c-Si PV value chain from crystallization, wa- fering, cell manufacturing to module manufacturing, and PV systems. Significant parameters set out in earlier editions are reviewed along with several new ones, and discussions about emerging trends in the PV industry are reported. The global c-Si cell and PV module production capacity at the end of 2018 is assumed to be about 150GWp with utilization rates between 80% for Tier-1 manufacturers and 50% for Tier-2 [1, 2]; the market share of about 95% for the c-Si market and about 5% for thin-film technologies is assumed to be unchanged [3]. This roadmap describes developments and trends for the c-Si based photovoltaic technology. The PV module market stayed stable in 2018 despite serious market uncertainties. At the same time c-Si PV production capacity increased to about 150 GWp [1]. To that effect the average module prices dropped significantly. The consequent implementation of PERC and other improvements as well as the use of improved ma- terials resulted in higher average module powers. The PV manufacturers expanded cell and module production capacities, upgraded existing production lines to increase cell efficiencies and continued cost reduction. The price experience curve continued with its historic learning with a further increase to 23.2%. The PV industry can keep this learning rate up over the next years by continuing the linking of cost reduction measures with the implementation of cell perfections, with enhanced and larger Si- wafers, improved cell front and rear sides, refined layouts, introduction of bifacial cell concepts, and improved module technologies. All aspects are again discussed in this revision of the ITRPV. Improve- ments in these areas will result 60-cell PERC modules with a mass production average module power- classes of 325 Wp for mc-Si 345 Wp p-type mono-Si, and 350 Wp for n-type mono-Si respectively by 2029. 144 half-cell PERC modules are expected to reach average module power-classes of up to 400 Wp with mc-Si, 420 Wp for p-type mono Si, and 430 Wp for n-type mono-Si respectively at that time. The combination of reduced manufacturing costs and increased cell and module performance will support the reduction of PV system costs and thus ensure the long-term competitiveness of PV power generation. Roadmap activity continues in cooperation with VDMA, and updated information will be published annually to ensure comprehensive communication between manufacturers and suppliers throughout the value chain. More information is available at itrpv.vdma.org. 4 APPROACH 2. Approach All topics throughout the value chain are divided into three areas: materials, processes, and products. Data was collected from the participating companies and processed anonymously by VDMA. The par- ticipating companies jointly agreed, that the results are reported in this roadmap publication. All plot- ted data points of the parameters reported are median values generated from the input data. As stated above, the topics are split into three areas: materials, processes, and products. Here, we ad- dress issues linked to crystallization, wafers, cells, modules, and PV systems for each of these areas respectively. 2.1. Materials The requirements and trends concerning raw materials and consumables used within the value chain are described in this section. Reducing the consumption or replacing of some materials will be neces- sary in order to ensure availability, avoid environmental risks, reduce costs, and increase efficiency. Price development plays a major role in making PV-generated electricity competitive with other re- newable and fossil sources of energy. 2.2. Processes New technologies and materials, and highly productive manufacturing equipment are required to re- duce production costs. By providing information on key production figures, as well as details about processes designed to increase cell efficiency and module power output, this roadmap constitutes a guide to new developments and aims to support their progress. The section on processes identifies manufacturing and technology issues for each segment of the value chain. Manufacturing topics cen- ter on raising productivity, while technological developments aim to ensure higher cell and module efficiencies. 2.3. Products Each part of the value chain has a final product. The product section therefore discusses the antici- pated development of key elements such as ingots, wafers, c-Si solar cells, modules and PV systems over the coming years. 3. PV learning curve It is obvious that cost reductions in PV production processes should also result in price reductions [4]. Fig. 1 shows the price experience curve for PV modules, displaying the average module sales prices - at the end of the corresponding time period - (in 2018 US$/Wp) as a function of cumulative module shipments from 1976 to 12/2018 (in MWp) [2, 4, 5, 6, 7]. Displayed on a log-log scale, the plot changes to an approximately linear line until the shipment value of 3.1 GWp (shipments at the end of 2003), despite bends at around 100 MWp. This indicates that for every doubling of cumulative PV module shipments, the average selling price decreases according to the learning rate (LR). Considering all data points from 1976 until 2018 we found an LR of about 23.2% - a slight increase compared to the 22.8% in the 9 th edition. The large deviations from this LR plot in Fig.1 are caused by tremendous market fluc- tuations between 2003 and 2016. COST CONSIDERATION 5 The last two data points indicate the module shipment volumes in 2017, and 2018. For 2017 we cal- culated the shipment to 105 GWp (99 GWp installation [8] + 6 GWp in warehouses [9]). The 2018 shipment value was calculated to 109 GWp: the installation of 2018 is about 102 GWp, calculated as average of the installation values indicated in [10-12], for shipments we added 7 GWp in warehouses and in transit until the end of 2018. Based on this data the cumulated shipped module power at the end of 2018 is calculated to be approximately 524 GWp. The calculated worldwide installed module power reached 505 GWp end of 2018 after 403 GWp in 2017 [8]. The corresponding module prices at the end of 2017 and 2018 were 0.34 US$/Wp and 0.24 US$/Wp respectively [7]. 4. Cost consideration Fig. 2 shows the price development of mc-Si modules from January 2011 to January 2018 with sepa- rate price trends for poly-Si, multi crystalline (mc) wafers, and cells [7]. Module production capacity at the end of 2018 is assumed to be 150 GWp due to additional capacity expansions [1]. The limits on new PV installations announced by the Chinese government May 31 2018 have led to a reduction of PV installations in China in the second half of the year resulting in 40 GWp over all installation in 2018 vs. 54 GWp in 2017 [13]. These two facts led to a further price drop of about 30% and to an extremely challenging situation for all cell and module manufacturers. The inset of Fig. 2 shows the comparison of the proportion of prices attributable to silicon, wafer, cell, and module price since 2013. Average spot market prices for a representative mix of mc-Si and mono- Si modules on January 2017, 2018, and 2019 were calculated to 0.390 U$/Wp, 0.354 US$/Wp, and 0.244 US$/Wp respectively. The overall price level difference between 01/2017 and 01/2018 was only about 9% and the share of the different price elements remained nearly constant during 2017. But the Learning curve for module price as a function of cumulative shipments ITRPV 2019 Fig. 1 : Learning curve for module spot market price as a function of cumulative PV module shipments. 6 COST CONSIDERATION price decrease between 01/2018 and 01/2019 was again about 30%. The fraction of poly-Si is now at about 14%. Cell conversion shares increased to 26%, as well as module conversion increased to 46% during 2018. The non-silicon module manufacturing costs are mainly driven by consumables and materials as dis- cussed in the c-Si PV module cost analysis in the 3rd edition of the ITRPV. Taken into account the fact that the anticipated global PV module production capacity of about 150 GWp in 2018 will further in- crease in 2018 due to continued capacity expansions, the production capacity will again at no account exceed the predicted global market demand of ≈120 GWp in 2018 [14]. Therefore, prices will not com- pensate for any cost increases as there is no shortage expected — in other words, the pressure on wa- fer, cell and - more painful - on module manufacturing – will persist unchanged. Achieving cost reduc- tions in consumables, and materials will be more difficult but have to be continued. Improving productivity and product performance will become even more important. Price Trend for c-Si modules 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1,0 1,1 1,2 Jan. 13 Jan. 14 Jan. 15 Jan. 16 Jan. 17 Jan. 18 Jan. 19 Spot pricing [USD / Wp] Poly Si 18% Poly Si 19% Poly Si 14% Wafer 23% Wafer 19% Wafer 14% Cell 20% Cell 21% Cell 26% Module 39% Module 40% Module 46% share 01_2017 share 01_2018 share 01_2019 ITRPV 2019 Fig. 2 : Spot market price trends for poly-Si, mc-Si wafers, cells, and c-Si modules (assumption 01/2019: 16g poly-Si per wafer(Fig. 5), average mc-Si cell efficiency: 19% {4.7Wp}, average mono-Si cell efficiency 21.5%, share mono/mc = 50/50 (Fig. 38)); inset: comparison of the proportion of the price attributable to different module cost elements between 01/2017, 01/2018, and 01/2019 (0.39, 0.354, and 0.244US$/Wp) [7]. RESULTS OF 2018 7 The known three strategies, emphasized in former ITRPV editions help to address this challenge: • Continue the cost reduction per piece along the entire value chain by increasing the Overall Equipment Efficiency (OEE) of the installed production capacity and by using Si and non-Si materials more efficiently. • Introduce specialized module products for different market applications (i.e. tradeoff be- tween cost-optimized, highest volume products and higher price fully customized niche products). • Improve module power/cell efficiency without significantly increasing processing costs. The latter implies that efficiency improvements need to be implemented with lean processes that re- quire minimum investment in new tool sets, including the extension of the service life of depreciated tool sets in order to avoid a significant increase in depreciation costs. It will remain difficult to introduce new, immature technologies that do not show reductions of the cost per Wp from the beginning. Nevertheless the Toprunner Program in China will motivate to follow this track [15]. 5. Results of 2018 5.1. Materials 5.1.1. Materials – crystallization and wafering With ≈25% price share poly-Si remains the most expensive material of a c-Si solar cell as discussed in 4. The Siemens and the FBR (Fluidized Bed Reactor) processes remain the main technologies to pro- duce poly-Si. Despite FBR processing is consuming less electricity it is assumed that its share will not increase significantly against the well matured Siemens processing. Other technologies like umg-Si or direct wafering technologies are not expected to yield significant cost advantages compared to con- ventional poly-Si technologies over the coming years but are expected to stay available in the market. The landscape in wafering technology changed completely during the last years. The introduction of diamond wire sawing (DWS) was a significant improvement in terms of wafering process stability and cost reductions. The predicted change from slurry-based wafering to diamond wire-based wafering was finished in 2018 for mono-Si and for mc-Si. Fig. 3 shows that the switch to DWS was completed in 2018 for mono Si wafering. As new technology epitaxy is expected to appear in mass production from 2021 onwards. Fig. 4 reveals that DWS is the only wafering technology also for mc-Si wafering. This change was sup- ported by the fast introduction of wet chemical texturing methods for DWS mc-Si as will be discussed in 5.2.2. Electroplated diamond wire is considered as the dominating wire material. We do not expect that other kerf less wafer manufacturing techniques, especially kerf less technologies, will gain signi- ficant market shares, mainly due to the maturity of the DWS. 8 RESULTS OF 2018 Producing thinner wafers, reducing kerf loss, increasing recycling rates, and reducing the cost of con- Wafering technology for mono-Si 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2018 2019 2021 2023 2026 2029 World market share [%] electroplated diamonds resin bond diamonds epitaxy ITRPV 2019 Fig. 3: Market share of technologies for mono-Si wafer manufacturing. Wafering technology for mc-Si 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2018 2019 2021 2023 2026 2029 World market share [%] electroplated diamonds resin bond diamonds kerfless ITRPV 2019 Fig. 4: Mar