ITRPV 2019 Presentation Endversion

ITRPV | Dr. Markus Fischer Page 1 | 13 March 2019 ITRPV 10 th edition 2019 - report release and key findings Source: www.siemens.com/presse Markus Fischer PV CellTech Conference, March 13 2019 Penang, MalaysiaITRPV | Dr. Markus Fischer Page 2 | 13 March 2019 Outline 1. ITRPV – Status and PV learning Curve 2. ITRPV – Results 2018 - Wafer - Products, Materials, Processes - Cell - Products, Materials, Processes - Module - Products, Materials, Processes - Systems 3. Outlook and SummaryITRPV | Dr. Markus Fischer Page 3 | 13 March 2019 Outline 1. ITRPV – Status and PV learning Curve 2. ITRPV – Results 2018 - Wafer - Products, Materials, Processes - Cell - Products, Materials, Processes - Module - Products, Materials, Processes - Systems 3. Outlook and SummaryITRPV | Dr. Markus Fischer Page 4 | 10 th edition: 55 contributors from Asia, Europe, and US Figures o/a: 90 (71) Materials: 19 (16) Processes: 29 (21) Products: 20 (14) PV systems: 9 (8) Participating companies Independent data collection / processing by VDMA Review of data Preparation of publication  regional chairs Next ITRPV edition SILICON CRYSTAL. WAFER CELL SYSTEM MODULE Parameters in main areas are discussed  Diagrams of median values Photovoltaic Equipment Chairs US Chairs PRC Chairs TW Chairs US 13 March 2019 ITRPV – Methodology / StatisticsITRPV Learning curve for module price as a function of cumulative shipments ITRPV 2019 PV learning curve | Dr. Markus Fischer Page 5 | 13 March 2019 Shipments /avg. price at years end: 2017: 105 GWp / 0.35US$/Wp 2018: 109 GWp / 0.24 US$/Wp o/a shipment: ≈ 523 GWp o/a installation: ≈ 504 GWp 0.5 TWp milestone passed! LR ≈23 % (1976 …. 2018) LR ≈40 % (2006 …. 2018)  Stable volume shipped with huge price deterioration 2015 12 / 2018 500 GWp 0,068 0,034 0,069 0,034 0,074 0,063 0,143 0,113 0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2 0,25 0,3 0,35 0,4 01_2018 01_2019 Module price (US$/Wp) Module Cell Wafer Poly Si 0.354 0.244ITRPV | Dr. Markus Fischer Page 6 | 13 March 2019 Outline 1. ITRPV – Status and PV learning Curve 2. ITRPV – Results 2018 - Wafer - Products, Materials, Processes - Cell - Products, Materials, Processes - Module - Products, Materials, Processes - Systems 3. Outlook and SummaryITRPV p-type mc p-type mono n-type 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% IHSM 2018 2018 2019 2021 2023 2026 2029 World market share [%] p-type HPmc p-type monolike p-type mono n-type mono ITRPV 2019 IHS Markit data Wafer: Product –market share of wafer type | Dr. Markus Fischer Page 7 | 13 March 2019 Trend: share of c-Si material types • p-type material will stay mainstream until 2029  base for p-PERC technology • casted-Si share shrunk to 50%:  Dominance is gone,  p-type HP mc-Si is dominating  mono-cast @ 1%  co-doping with Ga/P will improve ingot quality • Mono technology will fast gain market share:  n- + p-type ≈60% in 2019  n-type material share will increase (HJT, Topcon)  p-type will stay mainstream Ga doping expected to improve • 2018 values in line w/ IHS Markit analysis  Mono will dominate (further boost by n-type) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2018 2019 2021 2023 2026 2029 World market share [%] B B with Ga and P co-doping ITRPV 2019ITRPV Wafer: Product - market share of wafer sizes | Dr. Markus Fischer Page 8 | 13 March 2019 Trend: mc-Si wafer size  several new formats appear Trend: mono-Si wafer size Mono will soon use ≥161.75x161.75mm² Standardization is required 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2018 2019 2021 2023 2026 2029 World market share [%] 156.0 +-0.5 *156.0 +- 0.5 mm² 156.75+- 0.25 * 156.75 +- 0.25mm² 161.75 +-0.25 * 161.75 +-0.25 mm² 161.75 +-0.25 * 161.75 +-0.25 mm² ITRPV 2019 ≥161.75 x 161.75 mm² ≥ 156.75 x 156.75 mm² (up to 158.75 x 158.75 mm²) • ≥156.75 x 156.75 mm² is mainstream now! 156 x 156 mm² - disappeared 161.75x 161.75 mm² require upgrades of existing lines and larger modules  new tools/fabs for even larger wafers ITRPV 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2018 2019 2021 2023 2026 2029 [µm] Kerf loss for diamond wire sawing TTV for diamond wire sawing ITRPV 2019 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2018 2019 2021 2023 2026 2029 [gram] mc-Si, diamond wire based mono-Si, diamond wire based ITRPV 2019 Wafer: Process – crystallization / wafering technology | Dr. Markus Fischer Page 9 | 13 March 2019 Trend: wafer thickness Trend: poly-Si utilization / kerf loss 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 2018 2019 2021 2023 2026 2029 [µm] p-type multi for BSF p-type mono BSF p-type multi for PERx p-type mono PERx ITRPV 2019 • Poly-Si utilization:  ≈16.5g / mono-Si wafer  ≈ 15.5g mc-Si wafer • kerf loss  ≈80µm 2019  ≈60µm 2029 • TTV  will improve to 10µm  Diamond wire sawing is the only wiring technology • mono wafer thickness is reducing now! 2019 2029 p-type ≈170µm today, 140µm driven by PERx n-type ≈150µm today, 115µm HJT leads mc-Si still delayed 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 [µm] ITRPV 2019 n-type mono PERx n-type mono IBC n-type mono HJT ITRPV | Dr. Markus Fischer Page 10 | 13 March 2019 Outline 1. ITRPV – Status and PV learning Curve 2. ITRPV – Results 2018 - Wafer - Products, Materials, Processes - Cell - Products, Materials, Processes - Module - Products, Materials, Processes - Systems 3. Outlook and SummaryITRPV 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% IHSM 2018 2018 2019 2021 2023 2026 2029 World market share [%] Si-based tandem back contact Si-heterojunciton (SHJ) PERC/PERL/PERT incl. w/ passivated contacts at rear side BSF ITRPV 2019 Cell: Product – market share of cell technologies | Dr. Markus Fischer Page 11 | 13 March 2019 Trend: share of cell technologies • BSF  ≈40% share in 2019  focus on mc-Si BSF  will disappear after 2025 • PERx (incl. passivated contacts)  50% share in 2019  market mainstream in coming years  on p- and n- type • Si- heterojunction (SHJ)  ≈2% in 2018  15% in 2029  on n-type only • Back contact concepts  ≈2 % in 2018  10% in 2029 • Si-Tandem expected from 2023 onwards  PERx - technologies will dominate (2018 ITRPV data are close to IHS Markit) fit for Bifacial 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2018 2019 2021 2023 2026 2029 World market share [%] monofacial c-Si bifacial c-Si ITRPV 2019 Bifacial cells will gain share  ≈15% in 2019  ≈60% in 2029ITRPV 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2018 2019 2021 2023 2026 2029 World market share [%] PERC/PERL with AlO/SiN passivating stack on mc-Si passivated contacts on n-type mono-Si passivated contacts on p-type mono-Si PERC on n-type mono-Si PERC on p-type mono-Si ITRPV 2019 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2018 2019 2021 2023 2026 2029 World market share [%] batch ALD AlOx + separate capping layer single sided ALD AlOx + separate capping layer direct plasma PECVD AlOx + integrated capping layer remote plasma PECVD AlOx + integrated capping layer ITRPV 2019 Cell: Process – market share of PERx cell technologies | Dr. Markus Fischer Page 12 | 13 March 2019 Trend: Passivated Emitter and Rear concepts • PERC (with contacts) PECVD ( AlOx/SiN) = mainstream  ALD AlOx = will gain market • Passivated contacts - poly-Si deposition:  LPCVD vs. PECVD - tunnel oxide forming  in-situ preferred - poly-Si doping  in-situ preferred  PERC with AlO/SiN stack is mainstream  Passivated contact concepts will gain market share passivated contacts p-mono PERC mc-Si PERC n-mono p-mono Trend: rear passivation processes 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2018 2019 2021 2023 2026 2029 forming of poly silicon with LPCVD forming of poly silicon with PECVD ITRPV 2019 LPCVD PECVD PECVD ALDITRPV Cell: Process– recombination losses | Dr. Markus Fischer Page 13 | 13 March 2019 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2018 2019 2021 2023 2026 2029 Recombination current [fA/cm 2 ] J0 bulk p-type multi J0 bulk p-type mono J0 front p-type material J0 rear p-type material ITRPV 2019 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2018 2019 2021 2023 2026 2029 Recombination current [fA/cm 2 ] J0 bulk n-type mono SHJ or back contact J0 front n-type mono SHJ [fA/cm2] J0 front n-type mono back contact (or other) [fA/cm2] J0 rear n-type mono SHJ [fA/cm2] J0 rear n-type mono back contact (or other) [fA/cm2] ITRPV 2019 Trend: J0 p-type materials  improvements was well predicted Trend: J0 n-type materials  n-type has much lower J0 2018 2023 J0 bulk:p-mc-Si 178 fA/cm²  90 fA/cm² ≈ 5y behind p-mono p-mono 100 fA/cm²  50 fA/cm² ≈10y behind n-mono n-mono 25 fA/cm² 10 fA/cm² J0 front/rear  close to mono bulk valuesITRPV 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2018 2019 2021 2023 2026 2029 Amount of silver per cell [mg/cell] ITRPV 2019 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2018 2019 2021 2023 2026 2029 World market share [%] 3 busbars 4 busbars 5 busbars 6 and more busbars busbarless ITRPV 2019 | Dr. Markus Fischer Page 14 | 13 March 2019 Cell: Process – metallization trends Silver reduction will continue  90mg Ag for p-type cells  n-type concepts use more Ag Measures: - reduction of finger width  more bus bars - finger width 40µm  20µm in 2029 - Single print will remain mainstream 2019: 20.25% x 0.987 (CTM) ≈ 4.91W/ cell *  ≈ 18.3 t / GWp  ≈ 18300 t @100GW = 6.3 % of world Silver market 2017** Photography 1996: 40% of annual Silver market** February 2019: 500 US$/kg  ≈ 0.92 $cent/ Wp* * avg. module power 290W labeled ; ** Assumption ≈ 29,000t / 1018 MOz 2017 market https://www.silverinstitute.org/publications/ 0 200 400 600 800 1.000 1.200 2018 2019 2021 2023 2026 2029 Amount of aluminum per cell [mg/cell] monofacial cell [mg/cell] bifacial cell [mg/cell] ITRPV 2019 • BB trend: 5 BB+ is mainstream  3/4BB will disappear • Rear side Al trend: 1 g for mono-facial Bifacial uses 20% only monofacial p-type cell [mg/cell] (front + rear side) bifacial p-type cell [mg/cell] (front + rear side) HJT n-type cell [mg/cell] (front + rear side) n-type cell (all cell types, without HTJ) [mg/cell] (front + rear side) Trend: remaining Silver (predictions were met) Trend: number of bus bars Trend: remaining AluminumITRPV Cell: Process – emitter doping | Dr. Markus Fischer Page 15 | 13 March 2019 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2018 2019 2021 2023 2026 2029 World market share [%] homogenous emitter by gas phase diffusion selective emitter by laser doping selective emitter by etch back ITRPV 2019 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2018 2019 2021 2023 2026 2029 World market share [%] other Ion implantation with subsequent thermal activation BCl3 thermal doping BBr3 Thermal doping ITRPV 2019 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2018 2019 2021 2023 2026 2029 Ohm / square phosphorous doping (p-type cells) boron doping (n-type cells) ITRPV 2019 Trend: emitter sheet resistance Sheet resistance will increase further Trend: doping processes  P-doping: selective emitter will gain  B-doping: BBr 3 is mainstream P-doping: 2018: 100 Ω/□  2029 140 Ω/□  selective emitter use will be intensified B-doping: 2018: 90 Ω/□  2029 120 Ω/□ BBr 3 doping BCl 3ITRPV | Dr. Markus Fischer Page 16 | 13 March 2019 3.000 5.000 7.000 9.000 11.000 13.000 15.000 17.000 2018 2019 2021 2023 2026 2029 [Wafer/h] chemical processes, progessive scenario chemical processes, evolutional scenario thermal processes, progressive scenario thermal processes, evolutional scenario metallization & classification processes, progressive scenario metallization & classification processes, evolutional scenario ITRPV 2019 80% 82% 84% 86% 88% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% 2018 2019 2021 2023 2026 2029 thermal chemical metallization & classification ITRPV 2019 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2018 2019 2021 2023 2026 2029 Carrier tracking Module assembly to cell Fab traceability Single wafer tracking w/ virtual tracking or marking ITRPV 2019 Cell: Process – throughput / OEE / smart fab trends Trend: cell process tool throughput  wet will lead the throughput increase  metallization will impressively improve Trend: OEE 2018/ 2025  chemical is leading: 93% / 96%  thermal and metallization: 90% / 95% Trend: WIP tracking standard  carrier and wafer tracking  link cell to module tracability  Thermal processing is behindITRPV Cell: Process – in-line process control /MES | Dr. Markus Fischer Page 17 | 13 March 2019 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2018 2019 2021 2023 2026 2029 World market share [%] automatic optical inspection (AOI) for front side in cell tester/sorter automatic optical inspection (AOI) for back side in cell tester/sorter color inspection for front side in cell sorter color inspection for back side in cell sorter electroluminescence (EL) imaging infrared (IR) imaging for hotspot detection photoluminescence (PL) imaging as incomming wafer test ITRPV 2019 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2018 2019 2021 2023 2026 2029 World market share [%] automatic optical inspection (AOI) after front silver print automatic optical inspection (AOI) after back silver or back Aluminum print automatic optical inspection (AOI) after antireflective coating incoming wafer inspection sheet resistance measurement after diffusion ITRPV 2019 Trend: inspection at cell test - AOI in cell test is standard  100% in 2025 - EL on cell level is increasing market Trend: in-line process control  printer inspection will gain share  other inspection at low shareITRPV Cell: Product – cell efficiencies in mass production | Dr. Markus Fischer Page 18 | 13 March 2019 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 2018 2019 2021 2023 2026 2029 stabilized cell efficiency BSF p-type cells mc-Si BSF cells p-type mono-Si leading product (PERC, PERL or PERT cells including w/ passivated contacts at rear side) p-type mc-Si leading product (PERC, PERL or PERT cells including w/ passivated contacts at rear side) p-type mono-Si leading product (PERC, PERL or PERT cells including w/ passivated contacts at rear side) n-type mono-Si Silicon heterojunction (SHJ) cells n-type mono-Si back contact cells n-type mono-Si ITRPV 2019 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2018 2019 2021 2023 2026 2029 World market share [%] Share of 2 GW ITRPV 2019 Trend: cell efficiency  n-type leads in efficiency with SHJ and IBC Trend: Cell fab size  2GW will be min. Fab size 2018 2023 2029 mc-Si PERC: 20.2% 21.0% 22.0% p-mono PERC: 22.0 23.0 23.5% n-mono PERX: 22.0% 23.2% 24.0% passivated contacts SHJ: 23.0% 24.0% 25.0%ITRPV | Dr. Markus Fischer Page 19 | 13 March 2019 Outline 1. ITRPV – Status and PV learning Curve 2. ITRPV – Results 2018 - Wafer - Products, Materials, Processes - Cell - Products, Materials, Processes - Module - Products, Materials, Processes - Systems 3. Outlook and SummaryITRPV | Dr. Markus Fischer Page 20 | 13 March 2019 340 350 360 370 380 390 400 410 420 430 440 2018 2019 2021 2023 2026 2029 Module Power [Wp] PERC, PERT or PERL n-type mono-Si PERC, PERT or PERL n-type mono-Si half-cell PERC/PERT p-type mono PERC/PERT p-type mono half-cell PERC/PERT p-type mc-Si PERC/PERT p-type mc-Si half-cell ITRPV 2019 95% 96% 97% 98% 99% 100% 101% 102% 103% 104% 2018 2019 2021 2023 2026 2029 ac