【推荐阅读】世界经济论坛：促进有效的能源转型（2023年版）（英文原版）.pdf

Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2023 Edition INSIGHT REPORT JUNE 2023 In collaboration with AccentureImages Getty Images 2023 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system. Disclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project, insight area or interaction. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum, nor the entirety of its Members, Partners or other stakeholders. Contents Foreword 3 Executive summary 4 1 Introduction 6 2 Framework 8 3 Overall results 11 3.1 Transition scores 13 3.2 Transition momentum 15 4 Sub-index and dimension trends 19 4.1 System performance 20 4.2 Transition readiness 30 4.3 A closer look at innovation 31 5 Conclusion 33 6 Country performance profiles 34 Appendices 61 A1 M e t h odo l o g y 61 A2 Country ETI score evolution, 2014-2023 62 Contributors 64 Endnotes 66 Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2023 Edition 2Foreword The transformation of the global energy system is well under way. In just over a decade, investments across multiple forms of renewable energy have overtaken investments in fossil fuels. Energy and climate policies now take centre stage in domestic and international affairs. The geopolitical balance of energy has shifted significantly, and new superpowers have emerged in renewable energy component manufacturing, critical minerals and clean technology. The frontiers of energy innovation have been progressively redefined, and thousands of entrepreneurs are working to remake this huge industry. Enabled by mounting scientific evidence, a steady rhythm of extreme weather events and decades of awareness campaigns, climate consciousness is embedded in the public psyche. The Energy Transition Index ETI has supported decision-makers through this period, with a robust, consistent and comprehensive framework and a transparent fact base. Despite the strong momentum, the energy transition has been challenged by near-term exigencies. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, a combination of economic factors and supply chain constraints led to affordability challenges, shortages and blackouts in different parts of the world. The recent energy crisis, a result of the Russia-Ukraine war, is the most severe in decades, leading to the highest levels of inflation in decades, a cost-of-living crisis and macroeconomic instabilities. While investments and policy measures for energy transition have amplified despite the volatile environment, the delicate balance of the energy security architecture, and the adverse effects on vulnerable households and developing countries, demonstrate the importance of balancing the imperatives of security, equity and sustainability for an effective energy transition. Considering today’s context, we have updated the ETI framework to ensure its usefulness for decision-making. The revisions include the improved delineation of inclusiveness and equity, the reprioritization of energy security, the sharpening of the enabling environment scope, and the articulation of transition momentum to complement energy system performance and transition readiness to provide an in-depth view of how fast or slow a country is transitioning, beyond the snapshot values. The actions taken in the early years of this decade of delivery will be critical in ensuring that strong, long- term ambition is supported by immediate progress. The focus needs to be on enhancing an equitable transition which has been traded off rather than enabled by the focus on security and sustainability. The energy transition must be made resilient to maintain speed under current volatilities and during potential future domestic or international disruptions. Resilience needs to be built into the transition to maintain progress throughout ongoing and future disruptions as COVID-19 and the energy crisis will not be the only international events in the coming decade and beyond. Through this effort, the World Economic Forum encourages the sharing of best practices and the use of its platform for effective public-private collaboration to facilitate the energy transition process around the world. Muqsit Ashraf Global Strategy Lead, Accenture Roberto Bocca Head, Centre for Energy and Materials; Member of the Executive Committee, World Economic Forum Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2023 Edition June 2023 Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2023 Edition 3Executive summary The frontiers of the global energy transition are constantly shifting as countries attempt to emerge out of various health, geopolitical and economic crises. The “polycrisis” has forced countries to reallocate resources and implement measures to address near-term energy security and affordability constraints. It has also provided an opportunity to think about how various aspects of the “energy triangle” have evolved. Equity and inclusiveness evolved from focusing only on access to embracing sustained economic development. Security took a leap from ensuring supplies towards diversifying the energy mix. And sustainability now includes a wider form of clean energy beyond decarbonization, whereas transition readiness demands more focus on regulatory and financial environments. Considering the changing needs of the energy frontier, the Energy Transition Index ETI framework has been revised this year to incorporate a wider approach of balancing the three imperatives of the energy triangle – equity, security and sustainability – while harnessing transition enablers effectively. The ETI benchmarks countries on their current energy system performance and provides a forward-looking measure of transition readiness. Over the past decade, the global ETI scores improved by 10, supported by an increase of 19 in transition readiness scores, but only a 6 increase in system performance scores. The Nordic countries Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Finland continue to maintain their top rankings, scoring highly on both system performance and transition readiness. A few countries, such as Kenya and Azerbaijan, jumped significantly in rank this year for making aggressive efforts towards transition readiness by improving their regulatory environment and infrastructure. Importantly, in the last decade, the world’s largest energy consumer, China, gained 43 – approximately double the global average – in its transition readiness scores, making its way into the top 20 as the only Asian country. This report spotlights certain countries accomplishing noticeable achievements or laying the groundwork for a robust energy transition see section 6. This edition of the report refocuses on the need for urgent action towards the transition. Despite making progress on decarbonization and improving on infrastructure, the world still falls short of achieving balanced progress on all aspects of the energy triangle. Thus, “transition momentum” has been incorporated as a measure to determine country progress on the system performance parameters. Only two countries – India and Singapore – are making advances on all aspects of energy system performance. The window of opportunity for the energy transition is closing fast. The limited number of countries simultaneously advancing across all aspects of the energy triangle highlights the challenges that countries face in progressing along their energy transition pathways. The following themes emerge from analysing the drivers of past progress that can highlight the path for an accelerated transition The current energy transition trajectory puts equity under pressure. The global average ETI score has increased each consecutive year over the last decade, but the growth has plateaued in the past three years, due to rising challenges to the equity and inclusiveness of the transition. Energy market volatilities resulting from macroeconomic and geopolitical developments over the past three years have led to extreme price shocks, exacerbating energy poverty and stalling energy access. High fuel prices have affected the cost-competitiveness of energy intensive industries, and the rising subsidy burden poses a risk to economic growth. Low-income countries have been disproportionately affected, facing simultaneous challenges from fuel price inflation, food inflation and rising debt burden. While performance on environmental sustainability has grown the fastest and countries are prioritizing energy security after lessons from the energy crisis, inclusiveness and equity considerations need to be addressed for a robust and resilient transition. The centre of gravity for energy transition is shifting towards emerging and developing economies. With increasing populations and economic growth in developing countries, particularly China and India, the global demand for energy remains unfazed. Short-term effects from the energy crisis notwithstanding, all emerging economies show consistent improvement on transition readiness, performing better than the global averages over a longer-term horizon. The improvements in the growth of clean jobs, infrastructure development including the addition of renewables capacity and political commitments have been significant. Even as the global energy transition is plateauing due to equity challenges, major economies are showing significant progress. Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2023 Edition 4An opportunity also lies in the cost effectiveness of implementing clean solutions in emerging economies, as the average cost of reducing emissions in these economies is estimated to be approximately half of that in advanced economies. All of this, however, must be accompanied by improving the energy intensity of the economy, while reducing the carbon intensity of the energy mix. Further, directing investments towards developing economies can help them boost acceleration. No one-size-fits-all dimensions exist for all countries. The countries performing strongly on the equitable dimension have been able to manage affordability concerns due to less reliance on energy imports and cost reflective energy pricing. Oman, Canada, United States and Sweden are top scorers on this dimension. Chronic energy access challenges are reflected in the low scores of Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia, Tanzania and Senegal on this dimension. The top scorers in the secure dimension are mainly advanced economies, such as United States, Australia and Estonia, followed by Malaysia, a developing country. All these countries have a highly diversified energy mix, minimal dependence on fuel imports and minimal interruptions in energy supply. The countries scoring the lowest are Lebanon, Jamaica and Dominican Republic, mainly because of challenges on the diversity of the energy mix, the need for energy imports and electricity losses. Latin America leads the chart on the sustainable dimension with Costa Rica, Paraguay and Uruguay, on account of abundant hydroelectric potential. Fossil fuel exporting countries Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar score the lowest on this dimension, attributed to high energy and carbon intensities and a very low share of clean energy in the mix. These results infer that, irrespective of economic development, countries can harness different available resources to successfully transition on various aspects of the energy triangle. Renewable energy deployment has grown exponentially, though innovation in next- generation energy technologies is necessary. Despite the fastest growth among the three dimensions of the energy triangle, the global average score on the sustainable dimension lags the scores of the equitable and secure dimensions on an absolute scale throughout the past decade. The silver lining, however, came in 2022 with investments in renewables reaching a record high of 1.3 trillion, a 19 increase from 2021 investment levels and a 70 increase from pre-pandemic levels in 2019. Around the globe, countries have added to their renewable capacities. One reason for this is the wide availability and maturity of renewable technologies. To increase the supply of clean energy and its associated technologies, the innovation landscape of clean energy solutions must be boosted, including alternative fuels, hydrogen, and carbon capture and sequestration. Policies are paving the way for a progressive transition, and diligence with implementation would shape up the transition trajectory. With updated country commitments, global greenhouse gas emissions coverage increased from 69 to 77. A combination of recent policies, such as the US Inflation Reduction Act, Japan’s Green Transformation programme, the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, and evolving mandatory and voluntary carbon markets, are accelerating clean energy supply and technology scalability, and promoting demand efficiency while allowing for transition-oriented economic growth. The transition trajectory hinges on the quality of implementing these policies to stimulate investments in enabling the transition infrastructure, while avoiding unintended consequences on energy equity and global trade. Increasing financing for a low-carbon energy system requires concerted efforts from governments, emphasizing a strong policy and price to ensure green investments offer an attractive risk-adjusted return. Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2023 Edition 5Introduction 1 Recent crises have left countries continually struggling to balance energy security, equity and sustainability. The energy transition is at a critical inflection point amid a series of shocks with compounding effects Figure 1. Energy supplies and infrastructure have been heavily weaponized during the Russia-Ukraine war, exposing the vulnerabilities of the energy security architecture. Countries with otherwise mature energy infrastructure and sophisticated supply chains were forced to resort to emergency measures to ensure adequate energy supply. Following the disruption of pipeline gas supply from Russia, a combination of strong policy measures, alternative fuel supply agreements, accelerated liquefied natural gas LNG infrastructure development, demand management and curtailment, regional collaboration on the use of storage reserves, and a milder than expected winter have helped Europe avoid energy shortages. Simultaneously, a concentrated fuel mix, reliance on few trade partners and underinvestment in energy systems emerged as important risk factors. As a result, oil and gas flows may have been permanently redirected, leading to the most significant rebalancing of the energy geopolitical landscape since the 1970s. Gas market volatilities spilled over to electricity markets