海外发展研究所-气候变化，现实变化：萨赫勒地区的移民）英文版）.pdf

Changing climate, changing realities migration in the Sahel Full reporti Changing climate, changing realities migration in the Sahel British Red Cross Acknowledgements T his report was written by Gabrielle Daoust, Yue Cao, Hussein M. Sulieman, Dansin Diarra, Boukary Barry and Jim Jarvie. This research was commissioned by the British Red Cross. ODI and the British Red Cross sincerely thank all those who contributed and made this research possible – in particular, all the individuals who shared their insights through survey participation, focus group discussions and key informant interviews in Sudan and Mali. In Sudan, particular thanks go to the Centre for Remote Sensing and GIS at the University of Gadarif, the director and staff of the Sudan Commission for Refugees and Sudan Humanitarian Aid in White Nile state and also the community leaders in Elfao, Elganaa and Dabat Bosin. In Mali, thanks go to Kn Conseils and all those who contributed to the data collection in Bamako and Kayes. We extend our appreciation and thanks to the Mali Red Cross and Sudanese Red Crescent Society, as well as National Societies across the wider Sahel, for sharing their assistance, knowledge and insights. We express special thanks to the following people for their insights, contributions and comments on the report Etienne Berges, Louiza Chekhar, Kouassi Dagawa, Georgie Vanner, Maria Twerda, Hugo Gimbernat Guerin, Joanna Moore, Adeline Siffert British Red Cross, Nouhoum Maiga Mali Red Cross, Eddie Jjemba Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, Karen Hargrave Independent consultant, Sarah-Opitz Stapleton and Leigh Mayhew as contributors, Mauricio Vazquez and Caitlin Sturridge ODI. Copyeditor Rose Cowling | Design vtype.co.uk Copyright 2022 British Red Cross | ODI redcross.org.uk | odi.org The British Red Cross Society, incorporated by Royal Charter 1908, is a charity registered in England and Wales 220949, Scotland SC037738, Isle of Man 0752, Jersey 430 and Guernsey CH142. Front cover photo IFRC/British Red Cross. Nigerian Red Cross volunteers supported flood evacuations and provided psychosocial support and first aid. National Societies participating in the researchii Changing climate, changing realities migration in the Sahel British Red Cross Photo Yuki Sugiura/British Red Cross The Niger Red Cross supports people in the most vulnerable communities in Niger, on the frontline of climate change.iii Changing climate, changing realities migration in the Sahel British Red Cross AU African Union ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States EU European Union FGD Focus group discussion IDDRSI IGAD Drought Disaster Resilience and Sustainability Initiative IDMC Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre IFRC International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution IOM International Organization for Migration IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change NAPA National Adaptation Programme of Action NGO Non-governmental organisation PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper UN United Nations UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Abbreviationsiv Changing climate, changing realities migration in the Sahel British Red Cross T he Sahel region – the strip of land extending coast to coast from west to east Africa – has long-established patterns of human mobility, largely characterised by internal movement within countries or between countries. This mobility has acted as an important resilience strategy for people’s survival and a way to create new economic opportunities during times of both crisis and stability. Existing research suggests that climate-related changes and risks might contribute to pressures to move for some people while constraining possibilities for mobility for others. Following already significant transformations in the Sahel’s semi-arid to arid climate, projected changes in rainfall and temperature suggest that climate-related challenges may intensify further. Therefore, understanding the influence of climate change on mobility in the Sahel is an increasingly vital task. However, the evidence on the relationship between climate change and migration in the Sahel remains nascent, and the evidence far sparser than in other climate-impacted regions. In addition, the research undertaken to date focuses primarily on the impacts of sudden-onset, short-duration climate shocks, as opposed to slow-onset, longer-duration changes. Commissioned by the British Red Cross, this research seeks to fill these evidence gaps and to improve understanding of the links between environmental and climate change and migration, and their implications for future mobility patterns and associated humanitarian needs and vulnerabilities. Many of the findings presented in this report validate and expand upon existing knowledge on mobility as it relates to environmental and climate change in the Sahel; on people’s coping strategies and adaptation strategies longer-term adjustments that may enable people to remain in place or support choices about mobility; and the relationships between them. The research considered Mali and Sudan as case-study countries. It took a wide focus, spanning both sudden-onset shocks and slower-onset changes, with experiences documented in Sudan predominantly reflecting the former and those in Mali the latter. It examined people’s perceptions of the connections between climate change and migration, the ways in which people cope with or adapt to the adverse consequences of climate change, and the vulnerabilities, barriers, and needs experienced by those who use migration as an adaptation strategy. Executive summaryv Changing climate, changing realities migration in the Sahel British Red Cross Data in Mali and Sudan was collected through quantitative surveys, qualitative focus group discussions, and individual key informant interviews. The following were also analysed regional and national policies and frameworks on migration, climate, and development produced by regional bodies, national governments, and international organisations; and existing research on the relationships between climate change and mobility in the Sahel region. The research framed the inquiry into people’s experience of climate change impacts within a broader perception of environmental impacts. This approach was deliberately chosen, given the difficulties of isolating the contribution of slow-onset climate shifts and wider environmental impacts among the many intersecting economic, political, social, and environmental or climate-related factors that shape people’s decisions to move or stay. Climate-related migration is multi-causal, influenced by intersecting forms of vulnerability and differing levels of capacity – each shaped by gender, age, disabilities, and income. Attention to current and future interactions between these different factors is necessary to understand the complex causes and patterns of mobility, and in turn to inform more robust policies and programmes. Photo Samuel Turpin/ ICRC Part of Humans and others that are vulnerable to both climate-related and non-climate-related stresses and hazards, due to wider socio- economic factors. Groups identified as most vulnerable to the impacts of climate-related and environmental change included elderly people; women especially in Sudan, due to their household responsibilities; young men especially in Mali, due to a lack of economic opportunities; poorer households, due to the absence of reserve resources; and ethnic minorities in Mali, due to existing systems of marginalisation and inequality. Key migration patterns and changes Most respondents in Mali and Sudan observed that migration patterns are changing in their localities – due both to environmental and wider factors. Most respondents reported increases in both in-migration i.e. migration into respondents’ localities, from elsewhere in the country or from other countries and out-migration i.e. migration out of respondents’ localities, toward other parts of the country or to other countries. In both countries most ‘in-migration’ is seen to involve people from neighbouring countries or within the same country. The same was true in terms of out-migration in Sudan and South Sudan. However, patterns of out-migration appear more varied in Mali, where cross-border migration toward neighbouring countries and other world regions were described more frequently. In Mali, changes in migration patterns were observed to have occurred mainly over the past four to 10 years, reflecting more gradual changes in migration trends as well as slower-onset environmental changes. In Sudan, changes in migration were observed to have occurred mainly in the past one to three years, reflecting more recent patterns of sudden-onset hazards i.e. flooding. In both countries, migration from rural to urban areas, likely linked to economic opportunities, is seen as a key internal mobility trend – although respondents in Sudan also highlighted trends in rural- to-rural migration, linked to mining and vii Changing climate, changing realities migration in the Sahel British Red Cross agricultural opportunities. Respondents in both countries also observed that migration is mainly temporary or seasonal, rather than permanent – although this varied within countries, reflecting localised patterns of mobility. Economic factors were identified as the primary motivation for migration in both Mali and Sudan. Environmental factors were typically identified as secondary drivers – although there is significant overlap with economic motivations given the impacts of environmental change on livelihoods. Mobility and adaptation Respondents in both countries considered migration to be a common adaptation strategy, although more so in Sudan. This likely reflects differences in the type of environmental changes and challenges observed by respondents, notably recent flood-induced displacement in Sudan compared to slower-onset environmental changes in Mali. In Mali, migration was described as a ‘last resort’ in response to environmental changes, because respondents preferred to stay in place – and it is young people who tend to shoulder the burden of taking this last resort. ‘Tipping points’, where coping in place was no longer possible, were mainly associated with sudden-onset hazards, such as flooding or crop failure. As well as being a form of adaptation itself, migration can also provide the means to support other in-place adaptation initiatives through remittances – but this connection risks being overstated, and not all migrants are able to support such initiatives. Like other coping and adaptation strategies, migration is not equally possible for all population groups, with older people, women, people with disabilities, and people experiencing financial difficulties facing the greatest barriers. These same groups are also among those most vulnerable to the impacts of climate-related and environmental changes. Family reasons and a desire to stay in place were the most frequently identified barriers to migration in Mali; these were also reported in Sudan where financial barriers were considered most significant, reflecting strong attachments to community as well as a perception of potential losses associated with migration. In Mali, respondents highlighted logistical barriers to international migration, specifically documentation requirements and more restrictive migration policies. Migration is just one of many strategies people use to cope with and adapt to climate-related and environmental changes and challenges. Overall, coping and adaptation strategies were reported by more respondents in Mali than in Sudan, likely reflecting differences in the types of environmental changes and hazards experienced slow-onset environmental changes versus sudden-onset events and the extent of adaptation possible. Changes in work and/or subsistence activities or to agricultural practices are common strategies people use to support in-place adaptation, while strategies people use to enable short- term coping include the creation of water or food reserves, the sale of assets, and changes in consumption habits. viii Changing climate, changing realities migration in the Sahel British Red Cross Migration outcomes and plans for return While migration can enable improved social and economic conditions, it is also associated with numerous social and economic challenges. In Mali, most respondents who had themselves migrated felt that their social and economic conditions had improved after migration, due to new employment or business opportunities, an ability to meet their basic needs, and the ability to send funds to support their families. However, they also described migration as being associated with numerous social and economic challenges. This was particularly true for people involuntarily displaced due to sudden-onset environmental hazards and conflict; in these cases, negative impacts include loss of social status, resources, and property. In Sudan, where most respondents had been displaced by severe floods, the majority reported that their socio-economic conditions had declined after migrating. While most migrant respondents in Mali plan to return to live in their locality of origin i.e. long-term or permanent return, most migrant respondents in Sudan either wish to return but are not able to do so, or have no plans to return, for financial and environmental reasons for example, because their home communities are flooded or due to increasing flood events. Photo George Osodi/British Red Cross Mothers’ Club members outside the Red Cross of Chad office in N’Djamena, Chad.