新世界——全球能源转型与地缘政治-IRENA.pdf
IRENA www.geopoliticsofrenewables.org A New World The Geopolitics of the Energy Transfor - mation [ - ] IRENA 2019; ISBN 978-92- 9260-097-6 IRENA 2019 ISBN 978-92-9260-118-8 . 2 IRENA Adnan Z. Amin . 6 lafur Ragnar Grimsson . 8 12 14 15 .18 .23 26 .26 .45 .55 62 63 .65 .67 72 .76 84 86 .88 2 IRENA Adnan Z. Amin 2018 1 lafur Ragnar Grmsson 4 3 Fu Chengyu SINOPEC Christiana Figueres Pascal Lamy Joschka Fischer Mari Pangestu Murray McCully Lapo Pistelli ENI ; Andris Piebalgs lafur Ragnar Grmsson Anatoly Chubais RUSNANO Adnan Z. Amin IRENA Carlos Lopes 4 Maria Van Der Hoeven Eirik Waerness Equinor Hans Olav Ibrekk Peter Fischer Fatima AlFoora AlShamsi Masakazu Toyoda Bill Richardson ; Izabella Teixeira Khalid Bin Mohammad Al-Sulaiman 6 IRENA Adnan Z. Amin IRENA 2018 1 IRENA Grimsson 7 8 lafur Ragnar Grimsson IRENA Adnan Z. Amin 150 9 IRENA IRENA 1 2 15 3 GDP 2040 1 3 4 16 2012 5 2017 6 2000 0.2 2017 6 7 50 8 2017 300 100 19 9 2000 60 2016 10 11 1 2 17 1. 一次能源需求（ Source Shell Sky Scenario, 2018 化石能源 Figure 1. The energy transition framework 可再生能源 可再生能源呈 指数增长 化石能源达峰 可再生能源超过化石能源节点 Sky Scenario 2018 2100 IEA SDS 2040 IRENA REmap 2050 SDS DNV GL Equinor Renewal 2050 IPCC 1.5 REmap 2050 Shell Sky Scenario, 2018 30 2000 17 2017 10 12 13 18 14 2010 73 22 15 30 / 2020 16 2010 80 17 IRENA 2025 26 19 35 CSP 37 PV 59 18 60 19 2020 20 10 9 700 21 2 1.5 IPCC 1.5 22 3 23 2 24 25 IRENA 90 26 20 2015
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