技术展望2023：当原子遇见比特--埃森哲（英文）.pdf

Technology Vision 2023 When Atoms meet Bits The foundations of our new reality From insights to action, the path to extraordinary value starts here. Introduction | Digital identity | Your data, my data, our data | Generalizing AI | Our forever frontier 2 TechVisionTechnology Vision 2023 | When Atoms meet Bits While standing at the edge of the next great technological era, enterprises must navigate economic and geopolitical uncertainty. The natural inclination of many organizations is to pull back. We have a different perspective. Now more than ever is the time for leaders to lean into strategies powered by technology to create differentiation. In fact, 10 years ago we predicted every business is a digital business, and this could not be more accurate today. We’ve talked about the five key forces of change that companies must harness over the next decade, including the need for total enterprise reinvention. Cloud, AI, and the metaverse, in particular, have accelerated to such degrees that they dramatically speed up change, bend the innovation curve and create more and more value for every business and organization. Foreword Businesses must embrace the foundations of our new reality Yet our research shows that only 8 of companies are adopting a strategy of total enterprise reinvention. These are the Reinventors, and we believe every company must aspire to be one. Among that backdrop, our Technology Vision provides insights to enable leaders and their organizations to act now to embrace technology and use the foundations of a new reality as a path towards reinvention. With this vision, we examine our movement between two types of worlds, physical and digital. Over the years, enterprises and individuals have taken many steps to create their presence in the digital space, consciously moving back and forth between physical reality and the digital ones they created. We believe the time has come to change that. The next wave of business transformation will erase the demarcation between those worlds to fuse them into a new reality. The goal is not incremental improvement, but a step change towards total reinvention. Not everyone may be ready for this change, but leaders must prepare now for the future where the movement between worlds is seamless and often simultaneous. We look forward to sharing our latest Technology Vision and building the foundations of a new reality with you. Technology is the answer. The time is now. Julie Sweet Chief Executive Officer Paul Daugherty Group Chief Executive - Technology supply chain disruptions; misinformation; mounting pressure from customers and governments for more sustainable solutions; a growing cyberthreat landscape. These problems are top of mind for every executive, but importantly, they are fundamentally different from the problems of the past. These are massively interlocked problems, with numerous dimensions and a multitude of different partners and stakeholders at play. Port delays and labor shortages across the food service industry are impacting the bottom line for food suppliers. 25, 26 52 of companies have supply chain partners that have been impacted by ransomware. 27 And enterprises are poised to feel the impacts of climate change, even if they are managing to avoid them today. In August 2022, for instance, companies in China’s Sichuan province were forced to shut down factories making solar panels, cement, and more, after a worsening drought caused hydropower reservoirs to run low. 28 Is it conceivable that any enterprise could solve even one of these alone Of course not. This is the urgency. The problems enterprises are most affected by today are ones they are not yet equipped to solve. Yesterday’s strategies and technologies are proving to not be enough to overcome the grand challenges enterprises are starting to stare down. Building a shared reality of atoms and bits is the necessary path to start tackling new problems in new ways. Technology has always risen to meet the needs of the time, and now the challenges we face are bigger than any one company alone. It’s time to start forging the tools to fix them, together. Think about sustainability. Environmental impact is one of the most pressing grand challenges that companies and the world face today, and increasingly more companies are eager to be part of the solution. Though despite their eagerness, many risk still missing their targets. 29 When shared solutions are built, however, the future starts to become much more attainable. Take Mango Materials. The renewable bioproducts startup collaborated with researchers around the world to of executives believe science tech capabilities could help address societal grand challenges of health-related issues and diseases, while 75 believe science tech capabilities could also help address poverty/inequality. 83 Introduction | Digital identity | Your data, my data, our data | Generalizing AI | Our forever frontier 15 TechVisionTechnology Vision 2023 | When Atoms meet Bits develop a bacteria-produced bioplastic designed to decompose in the ocean. 30 So far, five oceanographic equipment manufacturing partners have committed to replacing all their traditional plastic with this new degradable bioplastic once it’s ready, with commercialization and other product applications being explored as the collaboration evolves. 31 Or look at the grand challenge of delivering better healthcare. When it comes to using data to improve treatment, hospitals are typically limited to their own datasets for patient privacy reasons. But in a recent study published in Nature Medicine, 20 hospitals from around the world participated in training a federated learning model called EXAM, which predicted future oxygen requirements of COVID-19 patients. 32 The model leveraged data, including patient vital signs, laboratory data, and chest X-rays, from all of the participating hospitalsbut each hospital trained their own copy of the AI model and periodically shared updates with a centralized server, which then aggregated them to train the global model. In this case, the hospitals created a shared reality that they couldn’t have before, using federated learning to safely share digital data on physical information to improve AI predictions. 16 Technology Vision 2023 | When Atoms meet Bits TechVision Foundations for a new reality Mounting challenges on the global stage are forcing enterprises to reorient their business objectives and imagine how they can best contribute to solving these collective problems. Some of today’s problems might have been considered unsolvable beforebut as the convergence of atoms and bits continues to grow, the bounds of possibility expand. Digital identity gives us a foundation to traverse digital and physical worlds; transparency builds the trust and unlocks the data insights necessary to expose and tackle collective problems; generalizing AI provides us with the machine power to aid us in doing so; and our forever frontier is rapidly expanding as we bring physical sciences and information technology closer together. These foundations of our new reality are the path to taking action. The world is watching. What will you do next Introduction | Digital identity | Your data, my data, our data | Generalizing AI | Our forever frontier Introduction | Digital identity | Your data, my data, our data | Generalizing AI | Our forever frontier 17 TechVisionTechnology Vision 2023 | When Atoms meet Bits Digital identity ID for everyone and everything Digital identity is quietly becoming the key to enterprises’ technology aspirations, and efforts to reimagine it are underwaynot just for people but for all things. Your data, my data, our data Why transparency will become your most precious resource Data ecosystems are being reshaped by radical transparency as enterprises leverage their troves of data to offer unprecedented insight into their business. Generalizing AI The radical edges and possibilities of intelligence Foundation models are driving one of the biggest step changes in AI history. Now, enterprise leaders can shift from building their own AI to building with AI. Our forever frontier The big bang of computing and science After decades of hyper focus on digital technology, science is leaping back to the top of enterprises’ agendas. Our Four Technology Trends for 2023 TechVisionTechnology Vision 2023 | When Atoms meet Bits 18 Completing the picture Accenture’s Technology Vision report comprises a three- year set of technology trends, currently including trends from 2021 and 2022. It’s important to recognize that each year’s trends are part of a bigger picture. Tracking how they evolve over time offers a glimpse into how they may continue to grow in the future. 2022 Trends WebMe Computing the Impossible The Unreal Programmable World Stack Strategically Anywhere, Everywhere I, Technologist Mirrored World From Me to We 2021 Trends 2023 Trends Digital identity Our forever frontier Generalizing AI Your data, my data, our data Introduction | Digital identity | Your data, my data, our data | Generalizing AI | Our forever frontier Introduction | Digital identity | Your data, my data, our data | Generalizing AI | Our forever frontier 19 TechVisionTechnology Vision 2023 | When Atoms meet Bits 2022 Trends WebMe Putting the Me in Metaverse The internet is being reimagined as metaverse and Web3 efforts transform the underpinning and operation of the virtual world. Programmable World Our Planet, Personalized Control, customization, and automation are being enmeshed into the world around us, making the physical as programmable as the digital. The Unreal Making Synthetic, Authentic As AI-generated data and synthetic content convincingly mimic what is “real,” authenticity is the new north star. Computing the Impossible New Machines, New Possibilities A new generation of computers are solving some of the world’s most intractable problems, leading to one of the biggest technological disruptions of our time. Introduction | Digital identity | Your data, my data, our data | Generalizing AI | Our forever frontier 20 TechVisionTechnology Vision 2023 | When Atoms meet Bits Stack Strategically Architecting a Better Future A new era of industry competition is dawning – one where companies compete on their architecture. Mirrored World The Power of Massive, Intelligent, Digital Twins Growing investments in data, AI, and digital twin technologies are giving rise to a new generation of business and intelligence the mirrored world. I, Technologist The Democratization of Technology Natural language processing, low-code platforms, robotic process automation, and more are democratizing technology, putting powerful capabilities into the hands of people all across the business. Anywhere, Everywhere Bring Your Own Environment It’s time for enterprises to transform remote work from an accommodation, to an advantage. 2021 Trends From Me to We A Multiparty System’s Path Through Chaos The global disruption of COVID-19 ignited a scramble for enterprises to reimagine their partnerships – and multiparty systems gained newfound attention. 21 TechVisionTechnology Vision 2023 | When Atoms meet Bits It’s 2035, and old college friends Miriam, Alex, and Ben are grabbing a quick coffee before work. Ben’s favorite coffee chain has just opened a new caf in his office building, so he and Miriam meet there. “Alex textedsomething hectic is going on at the farm, but she says she’s ready when we are.” Ben says as he gets in line to order. “I hope everything’s okay,” says Miriam, “I actually ordered aheadI’ll go pick up my drink and grab a table.” When Ben gets to the front of the line, he greets the barista and touches his thumb to the fingerprint sensor on the counter. “Oh Trying out the personalization program today” says the barista. “Yeah I’ve been hearing about it I’m excited to see what the fuss is about,” Ben says. The screen in front of him springs to life with dozens of his preferencesideal caffeination level, flavor affinities, milk content, exact temperature, and more. “You got all this from me talking to an AI for A day in our new reality five minutes” he asks, eyes widening. “Wild, right” says the barista. “These are your default preferences, but you can tweak them in the app, and each time you check out it’ll confirm what you want just to be sure. Hit ‘OK’ when you’re readylooks like we’re already connected to your wallet for payment.” Ben’s feeling a bit tired, so he raises his caffeine level, then taps the ‘OK’ button. “That’s it” he asks. “That’s it,” says the barista. “Our bean dispenser will give us a custom blend of our 18 coffee varietiestailored just for you. Then I’ll make your drink and have it out in a few minutes.” As Ben turns to find Miriam, his watch vibrates with a notification, letting him know he’s been airdropped an NFT for trying the personalization program. Miriam is sitting at a table for three. “We’re just about ready,” she says as he sits down. They put on their AR glassesand finally they can see Alex, sitting in the empty seat beside them. Our Technology Vision 2023 trends are driving a new realityone where our physical and digital worlds converge. As we progress through the report, we will continue Ben, Miriam, and Alex’s stories to illustrate what this reality could look like, and how our trends could impact businesses and people’s lives. I nvisible A R lens es p er so nalise d brew Introduction | Digital identity | Your data, my data, our data | Generalizing AI | Our forever frontier 22 ID for everyone and everything T echnology V ision 2 02 3 Digital identity Introduction | Digital identity | Your data, my data, our data | Generalizing AI | Our forever frontier TechVision The RSA company releases a key fob that displays codes to supplement passwords – the first example of modern multifactor authentication 33 1986 John Daugman of Cambridge University receives a patent for the first iris identification algorithm 34 1994 Microsoft acquires Hotmail, an email service with 9 million users 35 1997 Estonia introduces a mandatory digital identity smart card 36 2002 Facebook Connect, one of the first social media login services, is launched 37 2008 China introduces a national pilot of its social credit system 38 2014 The crypto wallet MetaMask is launched for the Ethereum blockchain 39 2016 The EU passes GDPR, setting a new standard in data protection law 42 2016 India’s digital identity program, Aadhaar, enrolls 1 billion residents and is estimated to save the government 1 billion anually 40,41 2016 Delta Airlines opens the first biometric terminal in the U.S., allowing travelers to use facial recognition for check-in, bag drop and more 43 2018 Apple partners with several U.S. states to integrate driver’s licenses into consumers’ Apple Wallets 44 2021 A major airline to