欧洲可再生能源市场现状（英）--Schneider.pdf

State of the European Renewable Energy Market Key trends and market overview 2023 for Corporate Energy Buyers Solution Providers Confidential Property of Schneider Electric Page 2Confidential Property of Schneider Electric | Executive Summary. 3 2023 Market Overview. 4 Summary of H2 2022 Data 5 Indicative Pricing – Overview 6 Indicative Pricing – Observations 7 Current Market Trends.8 Local Spotlight New Emerging Countries.10 Case Study.11 Digital Procurement Tool for PPAs 12 Schneider Electric Sustainability Business. 14 Legal Disclaimer 15 Contents Page 3Confidential Property of Schneider Electric | As your renewable energy partner, our mission is to enable organisations around the globe to embrace clean, renewable solutions along their journey towards decarbonisation. This report provides an exclusive overview of the European renewable energy market for 2023. Executive Summary The demand for renewables in Europe continues to increase in 2023 An increasing number of companies are considering renewable instruments to reduce their carbon footprint and to mitigate the energy market volatility. Energy and sustainability become core business strategies for decarbonisation Global energy volatility is driving a greater need for energy supply security. Structured, holistic energy and sustainability strategies are required to decarbonise, improve energy security, and increase resiliency. Commercial operational dates are delayed The rise in competition for projects is resulting in limited availability, and commercial operation dates COD are being pushed further into the future. Global supply chain disruptions, inflation, and rising interest rates are making it harder and more expensive to develop some renewable projects. Supply chain renewables initiatives are developing Supply chain renewables initiatives, such as Energize for the pharmaceutical industry page 11, are attracting more companies as they set goals to reduce their scope 3 emissions. The corporate Power Purchase Agreement PPA market is developing further in Germany and France Due to their robust pipelines, Germany and France are attracting more and more corporates. Markets for corporate PPAs are emerging in Eastern Europe Romania, Hungary, and Greece are becoming attractive for investors, including large corporates and industrials CI and renewable developers. Energy volatility, decarbonisation, regulations and finance are interacting and influencing each other As we take a look at the landscape in our Global Energy Outlook webinar, we are seeing the intersection between two crises the energy crisis energy scarcity, market globalisation, energy transition and the climate crisis climate risk, extreme weather, and legislation. These two intersecting situations are creating a unique environment that has changed the way we think about energy and decarbonisation because they are so interconnected. Global energy volatility is driving a need for resilience and energy supply security as we continue to face energy scarcity in Europe. The legislative environment is also going to alter the energy or/and decarbonisation landscape. Regulations will require new considerations for financing, carbon footprint determinations, and supply chain emissions reporting. What we fundamentally understand is the need to digitise energy and sustainability data. Increased market complexity demands organisations to digitise in order to secure energy supply and meet business needs. And as these two crises continue to intersect, energy and sustainability become core business strategies necessary to cut emissions, improve energy security, and increase resilience. Executives and boards across all organisations are monitoring these colliding situations carefully. 2023 Market Overview Renewable energy demand is still rising Corporate demand for renewable energy is still increasing due to decarbonisation commitments and the desire for businesses to hedge against wholesale market volatility. The rise of supply chain programs encouraging low-carbon energy procurement is also opening doors for new entrants into this market. Volatility calls for resilience and energy supply security We have seen unprecedented price volatility globally over the past 18 months, posing unparalleled challenges to all renewable market players. The globalisation of markets will continue to increase, creating an interconnected and complex market with new and evolving risks. In these challenging times, a proactive, adaptive strategy and deep market understanding are keys to meaningful action. Commercial operation dates are postponed The rise in gas and power prices across the board are creating heightened buyer demand for PPAs. Increased demand for renewable energy sources means greater competition for projects, which results in limited project availability and commercial operation dates COD being pushed into the future. As demand increases, Q4 2024 was the most common COD offering, a delay from Q1 2024 in H1 2022. Project site availability also decreased source Zeigo Power, our digital procurement platform, page 12. Permitting delays, interconnection delays, supply chain disruption, rising interest rates, and inflation are other headwinds to project development. Internal alignment is key to move quickly as explained in our H1 2022 report. In a market where competition is increasing and supply becoming tighter, agile decision-making is increasingly important in order to capture opportunities and move faster than competition. The H2 2022 data set that informs this report considers corporate request for proposal RFP responses gathered between June and December 2022. It represents approximately 1,100 renewable energy offers across Europe Summary of H2 2022 Data Indicative Pricing – Overview Price ranges of offers across VPPA Virtual Power Purchase Agreement structures from our H2 2022 data set. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any program will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Swaps, futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition Price ranges displayed represent the 25th to 75th percentile of offers received in H2 2022 see page 5 Prices displayed have been rounded to the nearest whole number. Both wind and solar technologies are considered. Past performance is not suggestive of future results. Prices should be considered within the context of the local market. Notes Indicative Pricing – Observations As corporate demand continues to increase, interested buyers are encouraged to begin market evaluations sooner rather than later. Buyers, especially those with 2025 targets, will need to consider the full suite of renewable energy instruments to meet their goals. Those with flexible procurement strategies will be well positioned to take advantage of opportunities. Corporate PPA prices have increased across all European markets, influenced by factors such as demand, supply chain issues, inflation, interest rate, geopolitical situation, and wholesale market volatility, among others. Still, PPAs in some markets are a cost-effective way to source low-carbon energy. The Spanish market remains one of the most interesting markets, even considering the significant issues with permitting that continue despite measures implemented by the government to accelerate and simplify the process. The Nordics* have seen some of the most significant price increases, yet demand is strong and alternative price structures may offer reasonable financials. UK is a market to consider with a strong pipeline of projects, especially for companies that need a local solution to abide by market boundary definitions. More Polish projects are becoming available, but with a significant increase in prices. The German and French* markets are attracting interest for corporates due to robust pipelines compared to other countries in Europe. Emerging markets, such as Greece and Romania, are seeing an interesting evolution with pipelines building and more offers being presented. The renewable market is evolving rapidly. It’s important to have a strategy and an implementation plan that can be reviewed regularly. Corporates need to consider different renewable options available to hit their short and long-term targets. Multinationals will also need a flexible global plan to capture opportunities as they arise. Contact our experts today to learn more. Get more insights on French and Swedish renewable markets in our previous report. Current Market Trends Price Structure Fixed-for-floating is still the dominant price structure for PPAs. This is especially true in markets where corporate PPAs are just starting or remain less mature. In most mature markets, however, offers for alternative price structures continue to grow. They represented half of the offers received for Spanish projects and most of those for Swedish projects in H2 2022. Creativity and flexibility in the structure of PPAs offered improves the variety of products available to corporate energy buyers to meet their company’s specific needs. Price adjustment clauses in relation to either inflation or Capex variations are becoming increasingly common. The continued volatility in the wholesale power market means “as produced” PPA profiles have been offered almost exclusively. PPA price structures offered H2 2022 Alternative price structures Fixed-for-floating price structure GOs/REGOs The Guarantee of Origin GO market had an exceptional year in 2022. As a result of the dry weather, the average traded prices for GO products across all vintage years increased in Q4 2022, with the highest price increase recorded for 2023 EU Hydro and 2022 Nordic Wind production. In December, average traded prices for GO products across all vintage years decreased, with the largest price decrease witnessed for 2022 Nordic Wind production, while hydro levels returned to their historic norms. The new year began with a bullish trend, particularly for the 2022 production across all vintages and technologies. EU GOs will no longer be recognised in the UK as of 1st April 2023. Therefore, the import and usage of EU GOs for consumption in the UK will no longer be accepted. Organisations looking to address consumption in the UK will now have to procure and use in-country REGOs Renewable Energy Guarantees of Origin. .Note The data displayed in the graph was calculated based on direct quotes received from GO providers in the European market, not from the RFP database Germany France Belgium Netherlands Czech Italy Poland Slovakia Spain -5.51 -3.23 -17.34 -9.93 -19.52 -22.02 -15.20 -7.74 -16.53 Current Market Trends Gas Natural gas prices skyrocketed during the summer period as supply risks combined with heatwaves to cause notable disruptions to markets. However, robust LNG supply and significantly reduced gas demand caused by unseasonably warm weather kept European gas storages at more comfortable levels. By the fall, gas prices across the continent levelled out and became more stable. Future price stability will heavily depend on favorable winters mild, wet, windy along with robust LNG supply and demand curtailments. In the event of increased Asian demand for gas, Europe should expect tighter markets in the months ahead. Source Schneider Electric GRA Natural Gas Demand Curtailments in 2022 Source Refinitiv, Schneider Electric GRA Page 10 Local Market Spotlight New Emerging Countries It is important to note that participation in these markets can also expose corporates to risk. Interested in exploring eastern countries’ PPA market Contact our local market experts. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any program will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Swaps, futures, and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Hungary The very low 9 corporate tax rate makes Hungary attractive for investors, including large corporates and industrials CI and renewable developers. The Hungarian government aims to achieve 6 GW of renewable energy by 2030 and 12 GW by 2040. Today the Hungarian energy mix relies heavily on nuclear and coal. While the former should stay, coal has to be replaced by renewables by 2030, creating a huge incentive for renewable developers to build extra capacity. The outcome of the latest government auction was less favorable to renewable developers, with many deciding to withdraw their offered project, pay a penalty, and go to market. Given this tendency, local subsidies may phase out with PPAs emerging at a faster pace. Hungary cont. Due to the number of sunny days, Hungary has tremendous solar potential. On the other hand, while renewables are advertised and incentivised, prosumers are not able to net meter and feed the excess generation back to the grid. Though this doesn’t necessarily affect industrial scale developments, some companies may view the mixed messaging as a drawback. The country has a regulation that prohibits windfarms from being built within 12 kms of any inhabited area. Ending 2022, the government announced discussions to change/eliminate this rule. This may incentivise even more renewable developers to come to Hungary. Greece Greece has a goal to meet 65 of electricity generation with renewables by 2030. Greece’s new legislation is expected to reduce the average time for licensing renewable projects from five years to 14 months, simplifying the overall permitting process and giving space for investors and developers. As a result, Greece is in the spotlight for renewable developers, increasing its overall attractiveness and leading to more foreign investors entering its market. The government introduced its first offshore wind law, which is a major incentive for renewable developers to start doing business in Greece. Due to its location, Greece has tremendous natural resources for both wind and solar power production. Romania Romania’s corporate tax rate is also below average 16 making the country attractive for foreign investors, e.g., CI, renewable developers. Romania aims to reach 30.7 of renewable energy in its total energy mix by 2030 with 7 GW of new capacity, of which 3.7 GW is intended to be solar. Romania didn’t have governmental subsidies for many years. However, it is now launching its first renewables support scheme for wind and solar projects. The government also took a step back from ov