低碳氢：通往绿色未来之路（英）--Capgemini.pdf

GetTheFutureYouWant A PATH TO A GREENER FUTUREINTRODUCTION The energy transition and the global imperative towards sustainability have driven organizations to explore new energy models and solutions. Low-carbon hydrogen is gaining recognition as one of the possible routes to accelerating decarbonization of high-emission sectors such as industry and heavy mobility. Many countries including US, China, Japan as well as many European Union countries amongst others have announced major investments to accelerate its development. However, today prominent production pathways for hydrogen continue to rely on the use of fossil fuels. The move to “low-carbon hydrogen” could avoid the annual emission of 830 million tons of CO 2 currently emitted by conventionally produced hydrogen, 1 a vital contribution to securing a clean-energy future. Francesco La Camera, Director-General of the International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA, comments “Cost-competitive low-carbon hydrogen can help us build a resilient energy system that thrives on modern technologies and embraces innovative solutions fit for the 21st century.” 2 This fuel source is creating new commercial opportunities throughout the value chain – including alternative revenue streams, as well as new business models – but it must present an economically competitive alternative to carbon-based hydrogen if businesses are to consider it as viable in the long term. To understand how organizations could capitalize on low-carbon hydrogens potential, we conducted a global survey across 13 countries, with responses from 500 executives from energy and utilities E and potential as a storage medium for electricity – make it an attractive energy vector and fuel. Moreover, its ability to be stored and transported in various forms gaseous, liquid, or even converted to other molecules makes it a powerful enabler for decarbonization – both in relation to energy systems and end-use applications. However, not all hydrogen is created equal. Most hydrogen is currently produced via steam methane reforming of natural gas, emitting high levels of CO 2 during production. Figure 1 highlights the various hydrogen production methods and their associated carbon intensity. While the colors of hydrogen are a helpful way to categorize the production pathways, what is more important is the resulting carbon intensity, which can vary significantly even within a given color. Low-carbon hydrogen For hydrogen production to be considered low-carbon, it must come under the EU’s proposed emissions threshold of 3.38 kg CO 2 -equivalent per kg of hydrogen 5 , which is 70 lower than that of the predefined fossil fuel comparator, including transport and other non- production emissions. 6 In the US, the corresponding carbon intensity value to qualify for hydrogen production tax credits under the IRA is 4.0 kg CO 2 e/kgH 2 . 7 Although low-carbon hydrogen can include biomass pyrolysis as well, in this research, our main focus includes renewable or nuclear-energy-powered electrolysis-produced hydrogen emitting no or marginal carbon. WHAT IS LOW-CARBON HYDROGEN 8 Capgemini Research Institute 2023 Low-Carbon Hydrogen A Path To A Greener FutureGasification Coal 25 kg 11 kg 0.03– 0.37 kg Natural gas Biomass Renewables Nuclear Steam methane reforming SMR Pyrolysis Pyrolysis Electrolysis Electrolysis SMR with carbon capture, utilization, and storage CCUS Low-carbon hydrogen 3.38 kg of CO 2 emitted per kg of hydrogen lifecycle 11–13 kg of CO 2 is generated 3–6 kg is emitted Brown hydrogen Grey hydrogen Blue hydrogen Turquoise hydrogen Super green hydrogen Green hydrogen Pink hydrogen No or marginal CO 2 produced No or marginal CO 2 produced Biomass pyrolysis with storage of solid carbon is a negative emission technology** Primary source Key production technologies* Amount of CO 2 emitted per kg of H 2 produced Also called. WHAT IS LOW-CARBON HYDROGEN Fig.1 Different pathways of hydrogen production vary in carbon intensity Note This chart covers the main methods of hydrogen production currently in use. *For further details of different hydrogen-production technologies, please refer to the appendix. ** The pyrolysis of biomethane, biomass, waste, or wastewater, with subsequent storage of solid carbon, is a negative-emission technology, since the CO2 previously removed from the atmosphere and neutralized in the biomethane is not released during the pyrolysis reaction or use of the hydrogen produced and, consequently, no climate-damaging greenhouse-gas effects are produced. CO 2 -eq emissions could be higher than indicated above when considering the efficiency of the CCUS process, methane leakage in the system, and the time horizon between 20 and 100 years for the Global Warming Potential GWP. Source Capgemini Research Institute Analysis; World Economic Forum; IEA; Energy Cities; Enel; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Hydrogen Europe; Capgemini, “The path to low-carbon hydrogen,” October 2022. 9 Capgemini Research Institute 2023 Low-Carbon Hydrogen A Path To A Greener FutureLOW-CARBON HYDROGEN IS A KEY TOOL FOR DECARBONIZING HIGH-EMISSION SECTORS 01 10 Capgemini Research Institute 2023 Low-Carbon Hydrogen A Path To A Greener FutureOrganizations see low-carbon hydrogen as an important vector for energy transition The global energy crisis initiated by the COVID-19 pandemic and exacerbated by ongoing geopolitical tensions has bolstered the case for low-carbon hydrogen. Governments and organizations across regions are looking to reduce dependency on fossil fuels, as well as advance progress towards decarbonization and enhancing energy security In our research, 61 percent of energy and utilities E N360 respondents from unique end-user organizations; N447 respondents from unique energy and utilities organizations. 12 Capgemini Research Institute 2023 Low-Carbon Hydrogen A Path To A Greener FutureHydrogen use would make it possible to decarbonize around 15 percent of the economy that is not suitable for the direct use of electricity. Research suggests that 86 million metric tons MMt of CO 2 emissions could be avoided annually in the EU, European Free Trade Association EFTA, and UK by using low-carbon hydrogen in industries such as steel, chemicals, fertilizers, oil refining, etc. 8 Most organizations also believe that low-carbon hydrogen will be a long-term contributor to achieving emissions and sustainability goals. Ann Rosenberg, Co-Founder of SDG Ambition at United Nations Global Compact, says, “The current situation has heightened the urgency to develop new energy technologies, and Im optimistic about the growing focus on hydrogen as a potential solution. While its still in the early stages, I believe that hydrogen has the potential to be one of the most mature renewable technologies, capable of accelerating our transition towards sustainable energy” As Figure 2 shows 62 percent of end-user organizations are looking at low-carbon hydrogen to replace carbon-intensive systems almost 3 in 4 organizations in chemicals and fertilizers and the maritime transport sector are doing the same 63 percent of EU organizations agree that low-carbon hydrogen is one of the key long-term solutions for decarbonizing economies Wulf-Peter Schmidt, Director Sustainability, Advanced Regulation Product Conformity at Ford, says, “We are considering the use of low-carbon hydrogen green hydrogen in our logistics and supply chain. For example, a fundamental condition for near-zero emission steel is green hydrogen. But also in general, green hydrogen is key to ensure carbon neutrality across industries going forward and thats where we are working together with different partners and the industry. And we committed ourselves by being part of the First Mover Coalition.” 13 Capgemini Research Institute 2023 Low-Carbon Hydrogen A Path To A Greener FutureSouthern California Gas Company SoCalGas is collaborating with various partners to create an innovative green-hydrogen storage facility for its Colorado campus. The electrolyzer on site will use renewable sources and produce green hydrogen to be stored in fuel cells to produce renewable electricity on demand. 9 At the same time, organizations are trying to find solutions to challenges related to the cost and efficiency of power to gas to power P2G2P technologies. For the energy transition to succeed, another pressing challenge needs to be overcome the issue around the intermittency of renewable-energy sources. Our survey shows that nearly three-quarters 71 percent of EU organizations believe that low-carbon hydrogen is a viable method of energy storage from intermittent renewable sources, acting as a battery and making renewable energy such as solar and wind available to even more applications. France- based HDF Energy, a hydrogen-to-power company, is evaluating new models in this space. Mathieu Geze, Director Asia, says, “With our Renewstable power plants, we combine renewable energy, hydrogen, and batteries to deliver something non-intermittent to the grid. These power plants are composed of an intermittent renewable source and a long-term on-site hydrogen energy storage. The beauty of those projects is that we don’t sell hydrogen in those projects. We sell kilowatt hours. The hydrogen is just used to store electricity.” 71 of EU organizations believe that low-carbon hydrogen is a viable method of energy storage from intermittent renewable sources 14 Capgemini Research Institute 2023 Low-Carbon Hydrogen A Path To A Greener Future