电池储能高效整合可再生能源（英文版）-日本可再生能源研究所.pdf
About Renewable Energy Institute Renewable Energy Institute is a non-profit tank which aims to build a sustainable, rich society based on renewable energy. It was established in August 2011, in the aftermath of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident, by its founder Mr. Masayoshi Son, Chairman CEO of SoftBank Group, with his own resources. Author Romain Zissler, Senior Researcher, Renewable Energy Institute Editor Masaya Ishida, Senior Manager, Business Alliance, Renewable Energy Institute. Acknowledgements The author would like to thank BloombergNEF, the global authority on economic data on energy investments, who allowed Renewable Energy Institute to make use of BloombergNEF’s data in some key illustrations of this report. Suggested Citation Renewable Energy Institute, Battery Storage to Efficiently Achieve Renewable Energy Integration Tokyo REI, 2023, 58 pp. Copyright 2023 Renewable Energy Institute www.renewable-ei.org/en/ Disclaimer Although we have taken all possible measures to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this report, Renewable Energy Institute shall not be liable for any damage caused to users by the use of the information contained herein. 1 Table of Contents Introduction . 4 Chapter 1 Role of Battery Storage in a Solar and Wind Power Future 6 1 Future Power Systems – Key Contribution from Batteries 6 2 The Four Major Applications of Batteries . 13 3 Seven Illustrative Battery Projects 17 Chapter 2 Deployment Accelerates with Economic Competitiveness . 23 1 2021 Record Growth and Leading Markets . 23 2 Dramatic Cost Reduction and Competitiveness in the Power Sector 26 Chapter 3 Technological Progress and Improvements to Come 34 1 Short-Duration Lithium-Ion Overwhelming Domination . 34 2 Long-Duration Energy Storage Lagging . 36 Chapter 4 Supporting Policies . 40 1 Seven Powerful Possibilities to Further Accelerate Growth 40 2 Target 40 3 Mandate 41 4 Investment Tax Credit . 42 5 Auction 43 6 Market Design . 44 7 RE Certificate Multiplier 44 8 Time-of-use discounted rate . 45 Chapter 5 Concentrations of Critical Minerals Manufacturing Capacity and Solutions . 47 1 Problematic Concentrations of Critical Minerals Manufacturing Capacity 47 2 Solutions from Europe, the United States and Japan 49 Conclusion 56 2 List of Charts Chart 1 LCOE by Generating Technology 2010-2021 . 6 Chart 2 Gross Electricity Generation from Nuclear, Solar and Wind 2000-2021 7 Chart 3 RE Share in Electricity Generation 2021 Achievements and 2050 Projections 8 Chart 4 Simple Illustration to Visualize the Possible Functioning of a 100 RE Power System . 10 Chart 5 Fictional Example of a 100 RE Power System 24-hour Operations. 11 Chart 6 Fictional Example of a 100 RE Power System Weekly Operations 12 Chart 7 World Stationary Energy Storage Projects by Application 2021 14 Chart 8 CAISO Hourly Power System Operations October 24, 2022 14 Chart 9 Fictional Example of Residential Customer-Sited Battery Solar PV 15 Chart 10 Fictional Example of Commercial Customer-Sited Battery Solar PV . 16 Chart 11 The Mobility House Trading EV Batteries’ Flexibility in EPEX Spot. . 22 Chart 12 World Stationary Energy Storage Cumulative Capacity Power Energy Outputs 2010-2021 23 Chart 13 Stationary Energy Storage Cumulative Capacity Share by Country 2021 25 Chart 14 Average Pack Price of Lithium-Ion Batteries 2011-2021 . 27 Chart 15 LCOE of Utility-Scale Battery 4 hours and Competing Alternatives by Country 2022 H1 28 Chart 16 LCOE of Utility-Scale Battery and Competing Alternatives into Greater Details United States, China, Japan, and United Kingdom 2022 H1 . 29 Chart 17 LCOE of Utility-Scale Battery 4 hours RE and Competing Alternatives by Country 2022 H1 30 Chart 18 LCOE of Utility-Scale Battery RE and Competing Alternatives into Greater Details United States, China, Japan, and United Kingdom 2022 H1 . 31 Chart 19 LCOE of Utility-Scale Battery RE and Standalone Battery by Country 2022 H1 . 32 Chart 20 Residential Battery Solar PV LCOE VS. Household Electricity Price in California, Japan, and Germany 2019-2021 . 33 Chart 21 World Utility-Scale Stationary Energy Storage Projects by Technology 2021 34 Chart 22 Illustration of Liquid Lithium-Ion Batteries and Solid-State Lithium-Ion Batteries 35 Chart 23 Typical Discharge Duration of Different Stationary Energy Storage Technologies 36 Chart 24 The Basic Principle of CAES . 37 Chart 25 Stationary Energy Storage Targets Selected Examples 41 Chart 26 United States Structure of ITC for Stationary Energy Storage Projects 2022. 42 Chart 27 Germany Innovation Auctions Awarded Storage Solar Projects 2021-2022 . 43 Chart 28 United Kingdom Illustration of Dynamic Containment Service Functioning 44 Chart 29 Two Examples of RE Certificate Multipliers for Storage RE in South Korea December 2020 45 Chart 30 Fictional Illustration of ToU Discounted Rate for Battery Storage Inspired by South 46 Chart 31 Lithium-Ion Battery Composition 47 Chart 32 Lithium and Cobalt Production and Reserves by Country 2021 . 48 Chart 33 Lithium-Ion Battery Manufacturing Capacity by Country as of September 21, 2022 49 Chart 34 European Commission’s Envisioned Batteries Value Chain . 50 Chart 35 United States Bipartisan Infrastructure Law Battery Materials Processing and Battery Manufacturing Recycling Selected Projects October 2022 . 53 3 List of Tables Table 1 Selected Visionary Power Systems 7 Table 2 Solar, Wind Stationary Batteries, and Decarbonized Thermal Installed Capacity 2050 . 9 Table 3 Description of the Major Applications of Batteries . 13 Table 4 Selected Batteries Projects 17 Table 5 Ratio between Stationary Energy Storage Cumulative Capacity and Solar Wind Cumulative Capacity in Selected Countries 2021 . 26 Table 6 Utility-Scale Standalone Batteries and Competing Alternatives’ Key Features . 28 Table 7 Lithium-Ion Batteries and Sodium-Ion Batteries’ Key Characteristics . 35 Table 8 Selected Long-Duration Energy Storage Technologies Summary Key Characteristics . 38 Table 9 Selected Stationary Energy Storage Supporting Policy Examples 40 Table 10 European Commission’s Strategic Action Plan on Batteries Six Objectives . 51 Table 11 United States Department of Energy’s National Blueprint for Lithium Batteries Five Goals 52 Table 12 Japan Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry’s Battery Industry Strategy Three Targets 54 List of Pictures Picture 1 Hornsdale Power Reserve Battery 18 Picture 2 Moss Landing Battery – Phase 1 Facility . 19 Picture 3 Minami-Hayakita Battery 20 Picture 4 Olkiluoto Battery 21 Picture 5 Crescent Dunes Concentrated Solar Power Plant in the United States, Nevada. 39 List of Abbreviations57 Endnotes.58 4 Introduction As of the beginning of 2023, reaching global carbon neutrality by mid-century looks like a roughly 30-year long marathon that should be run at the speed of a sprint. Among good news are the explosive growths of solar and wind power. However, the outputs of these two technologies fluctuate depending on weather conditions. It is then understood that additional clean energy technologies should also be rapidly developed to ensure the continuous quality of power supply. Renewable Energy Institute recognizes five sustainable and complementary technological solutions to enhance power system flexibility enabling the smooth integration of solar and wind power electrical grid interconnections, batteries, decarbonized thermal using fuels based on renewable energy such as green hydrogen, demand response, and pumped storage hydro. Among these technologies, batteries are promising innovative solutions expanding particularly quickly which is critical given the urgency to accelerate efforts towards carbon neutrality. This report aims at shining a light on the great potential of batteries and the challenges it faces. To achieve this objective, the report contains five chapters including the following key findings Chapter 1 draws the picture of a world in which solar and wind power will dominate the future of electricity generation thanks to their explosive growths based on their unrivaled economic competitiveness and technological simplicity. Recent landmark energy outlooks presenting visionary power systems compatible with the objective of carbon neutrality are analyzed. It is found that to enable the smooth integration of high shares of solar and wind power 70-90 of total electricity generation the key contribution of battery storage is clearly highlighted. It is also found that among the four major valuable applications of batteries energy shifting is and will remain particularly useful. Seven concrete battery projects, sources of inspiration and excitement are also showcased to go from theory to reality. Chapter 2 underlines the record annual growth of stationary energy storage capacity excluding pumped storage hydro i.e., primarily batteries in 2021 nearly 10 GW, bringing the global cumulative capacity to more than 27 GW. It is noted that while the cumulative capacity of stationary energy storage is six times smaller than that of pumped storage hydro 165 GW, its annual growth pace is now twice faster. The four leading markets for stationary energy storage excluding pumped storage hydro are the United States, Europe, China, and South Korea over 80 of global cumulative capacity. A key factor accelerating stationary energy storage growth is its economic competitiveness resulting from the widespread adoption of electric vehicles, enabling dramatic cost reduction over the past decade -86. It is found that already today for flexible peaking services at 0.11-0.22/kWh new utility-scale standalone batteries may outcompete new demand response, gas reciprocating engine, 5 open-cycle gas turbine, and pumped storage hydro. It is also found that for dispatchable generation, at 0.10/kWh or below new utility-scale battery solar photovoltaic and battery onshore wind may outcompete both new and existing coal, combined-cycle gas turbine, and nuclear. Moreover, it is observed that at the residential level small-scale battery rooftop solar photovoltaic at 0.17/kWh may outcompete household electricity prices, as for examples in the State of California in the United States or in Germany. Chapter 3 emphasizes the overwhelming domination of short-duration lithium-ion batteries i.e., discharge duration of 0.5-6 hours, typically 4 hours among utility-scale stationary energy storage projects 96 based on power output in 2021 excluding pumped storage hydro. It is considered that to complement this short-duration energy storage solution and further facilitate the integration of solar and wind power, long-duration energy storage solutions i.e., over 6 hours would certainly be beneficial. Yet, it is found that with the main exception of pumped storage, progress in this area is lagging with most technologies being costly and technically unproven today. Chapter 4 presents seven powerful supporting policies, inspired by examples from all over the world, to further accelerate the growth of stationary energy storage. Targets i.e., voluntary and mandates i.e., compulsory setting deployment objectives to be achieved in the coming years and decades are the first two supporting policies highlighted. Investment tax credits, auctions, market designs, RE certificate multipliers, and time-of-use discounted rates, five enabling policies to fulfill deployment objectives, are then underlined. Chapter 5 stresses the geographical concentration issues lithium-ion batteries are currently confronted with. It is first found that in 2021, around 75 of the world’s lithium and cobalt i.e., two key raw materials for lithium-ion batteries productions and reserves were concentrated in only three countries Australia, Chile, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, and that nearly 80 of the world’s lithium battery manufacturing capacity were concentrated in a single country China. To cope with this energy security problem, solutions advanced in the European Union, the United States, and Japan are then presented. These solutions include developing domestic extraction of lithium, domestic manufacturing capacity, and recycling. 6 Chapter 1 Role of Battery Storage in a Solar and Wind Power Future 1 Future Power Systems – Key Contribution from Batteries Thanks to their unrivaled economic competitiveness resulting from dramatic cost reductions Chart 1 and their technological simplicity – enabling fast deployment – solar and wind power are set to dominate the future of electricity generation. Chart 1 LCOE by Generating Technology 2010-2021 Source Lazard, Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis – Version 15.0 October 2021. In 2021 already, the combined volume of electricity generated from these two technologies surpassed that of well-established nuclear power i.e., the main low carbon alternative to renewable energy RE – an historical achievement unthinkable twenty years ago Chart 2 on next page. 0.096 0.167 0.111 0.108 0.082 0.060 0.124 0.038 0.248 0.036 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 /kWh Nuclear Coal Gas Onshore wind Solar PV7 Chart 2 Gross Electricity Generation from Nuclear, Solar and Wind 2000-2021 Source BP, Statistical Review of World Energy 2022 June 2022. Around the world in recent years, different types of organizations intergovernmental organizations, governmental organizations, non-governmental organizations, power sector businesses advanced various landmark energy outlooks presenting visionary power systems. Hereinafter, four of these recent energy outlooks are referred to, and in each of them one carbon neutral compatible scenario has been selected Table 1. Table 1 Selected Visionary Power Systems Organization Country Type of organization Publication year Outlook title Selected scenario abbreviation Objective International Energy Agency World Intergovernmental 2022 World Energy Outlook 2022 Net-Zero Emissions “NZE” Carbon neutral global energy system by 2050 United States Department of Energy United States Governmental 2021 Solar Futures Study Decarbonization with Electrification “DecarbE” Carbon neutral American power sector by 2050 Renewable Energy Institute Japan/Agora Energiewende Germany/LUT University Finland Think tank/think tank/academic 2021 Renewable Pathways to Climate-Neutral Japan Reaching Zero Emissions by 2050 in the Japanese Energy System Base Policy Scenario – All import i.e., power and fuels can be imported “BPS-All import” Carbon neutral Japanese energy system by 2050 Rseau de Transport dElectricit France T
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