全球可再生能源融资前景2023（英文版）---IRENA.pdf

2023 GLOBAL LANDSCAPE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY FINANCE 2022 2023 www.irena.org IRENA 20232 GLOBAL LANDSCAPE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY FINANCE 2023 IRENA 2023 Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given of IRENA as the source and copyright holder. Material in this publication that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions, and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material. Citation IRENA and CPI 2023, Global landscape of renewable energy finance, 2023, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. ISBN 978-92-9260-523-0 Acknowledgements This report was jointly prepared by the International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA and Climate Policy Initiative CPI. The report was developed under the guidance of Rabia Ferroukhi Director, IRENA Knowledge, Policy and Finance Centre and Ute Collier IRENA, and Barbara Buchner and Dharshan Wignarajah Climate Policy Initiative. The report was authored by Diala Hawila and Faran Rana IRENA, Costanza Strinati, Sean Stout, Jake Connolly, and Sandy Fajrian Climate Policy Initiative, Antonio Barbalho and Sandra Lozo IRENA consultants. Input was also provided by IRENA and CPI colleagues, including Divyam Nagpal, Abdullah Abou Ali, Jinlei Feng, Emanuele Bianco, Dennis Akande, Gerardo Escamilla, Mirjam Reiner, and Hannah Guinto IRENA, and Chavi Meattle, and Baysa Naran CPI. Valuable review and feedback were provided by IRENA colleagues Elizabeth Press, Xavier Casals and Paul Komor. The report benefitted from comments of experts including Christine Eibs Singer Catalyst Energy Advisors, Charlotte Gardes-Landolfini International Monetary Fund, Jonathan Coppel International Energy Agency, Kingsmill Bond Rocky Mountain Institute, Laura Fortes GOGLA, Olivia Coldrey Sustainable Energy for All, Miquel Muoz Cabr, and Danial Duma Stockholm Environment Institute. The report was edited by Fayre Makeig. For further information or to provide feedback publicationsirena.org This report can be downloaded from www.irena.org/publications Disclaimer This publication and the material herein are provided “as is”. All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify the reliability of the material in this publication. 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Cover photos Kletr Shutterstock.com, Evgeny_V Shutterstock.com, Mabeline72 Shutterstock.com, Alex Traveler Shutterstock.com and isak55 Shutterstock.com About IRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA is an intergovernmental organisation that supports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future and serves as the principal platform for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, and a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge on renewable energy. IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security, and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity.3 CONTENTS Figures . 4 Tables and boxes . 6 Abbreviations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 FOREWORD . 8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . 10 OVERVIEW . 30 01 RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT IN CONTEXT 32 1.1 Investment needs for the energy transition .33 1.2 Global transition–related investment to date 34 1.3 Renewable energy vs. fossil fuel investments up to 2021 36 1.4 Impacts of recent macroeconomic and geopolitical events .40 02 THE LANDSCAPE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY FINANCE FROM 2013 TO 2022 42 2.1 Investments by technology 46 2.2 Investments by application power vs. end uses .52 2.3 Investments by region 54 2.4 Investments by financial instrument 64 2.5 Investments by source 73 03 THE LANDSCAPE OF OFF-GRID RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 84 3.1 Overview of the off-grid financing landscape 86 3.2 Off-grid renewable energy investments by energy use and product 89 3.3 Off-grid renewable energy investments by region 92 3.4 Off-grid renewable energy investments by type of financing instrument 97 3.5 Off -grid r ene w able ener gy in v es tmen ts b y financing sour c e and t ype of in v es t or 99 04 CONCLUSIONS AND WAY FORWARD .106 REFERENCES 1224 GLOBAL LANDSCAPE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY FINANCE 2023 FIGURES Figure S.1 A n n u a l g l o b a l i n v e s t m e n t i n r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y , e n e r g y e f f i c i e n c y a n d t r a n s i t i o n - r e l at e d technologies, 2015-2022 10 Figure S.2 A n n u a l i n v e s t m e n t i n r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y v s . fo s s i l f u e l s , 2 0 1 5 - 2 0 2 2 .11 Figure S.3 A n n u a l fo s s i l f u e l s u b s i d i e s b y r e g i o n , 2 0 1 3 - 2 0 2 0 .12 Figure S.4 A n n u a l f i n a n c i a l c o m m i t m e n t s i n r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y , b y t e c h n o l o g y , 2 0 1 3 - 2 0 2 2 13 Figure S.5 A n n u a l i n v e s t m e n t i n o f f - g r i d r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y a n d a v e r a g e t r a n s a c t i o n s i z e , 2 0 10 - 2 0 2 1 14 Figure S.6 A n n u a l i n v e s t m e n t i n o f f - g r i d r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y , b y o f f - g r i d p r o d u c t , a n d e n e r g y u s e , 2010-2021 15 Figure S.7 I n v e s t m e n t i n r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y b y r e g i o n o f d e s t i n at i o n , 2 0 1 3 - 2 0 2 2 .16 Figure S.8 D e b t a n d e q u i t y i n v e s t m e n t b y t y p e o f i n v e s t o r , 2 0 1 3 - 2 0 2 0 18 Figure S.9 Private investment in renewable energy by investor, 2013-2020 19 Figure S.10 Investment in renewable energy, by financial instrument, 2013-2020 .19 Figure S.11 A n n u a l i n v e s t m e n t i n o f f - g r i d r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y , b y f i n a n c i n g i n s t r u m e n t a n d l o c a l v e r s u s foreign currency debt, 2013-2021 .20 Figure S.12 Public investment in renewable energy by investor type, 2013-2020 21 Figure S.13 Portion of DFI funding in the form of grants and low-cost debt .22 Figure S.14 Annual commitments to off-grid renewable energy by type of investor, 2015-2021 .23 Figure S.15 The flow of public finance for a just and inclusive energy transition .24 Figure 1.1 A n n u a l g l o b a l i n v e s t m e n t i n r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y , e n e r g y e f f i c i e n c y a n d t r a n s i t i o n - r e l at e d technologies, 2015-2022 34 Figure 1.2 S h a r e o f n e w e l e c t r i c i t y c a p a c i t y , 2 0 0 1 - 2 0 2 1 .36 Figure 1.3 A n n u a l i n v e s t m e n t i n r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y v s . fo s s i l f u e l s , 2 0 1 5 - 2 0 2 2 .37 Figure 1.4 A n n u a l i n v e s t m e n t s i n r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y v s . fo s s i l f u e l b y r e g i o n , 2 0 1 5 - 2 0 2 0 .38 Figure 1.5 A n n u a l fo s s i l f u e l s s u b s i d i e s b y r e g i o n , 2 0 1 3 - 2 0 2 0 40 Figure 2.1 A n n u a l f i n a n c i a l c o m m i t m e n t s i n r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y , b y t e c h n o l o g y , 2 0 1 3 - 2 0 2 2 43 Figure 2.2 G l o b a l l a n d s c a p e o f r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y f i n a n c e , 2 0 1 9 - 2 0 2 0 U S D b i l l i o n 45 Figure 2.3 S h a r e o f a n n u a l r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y i n v e s t m e n t s , b y t e c h n o l o g y , 2 0 1 3 - 2 0 2 2 46 Figure 2.4 A n n u a l i n v e s t m e n t s v s . c a p a c i t y a d d i t i o n s fo r s o l a r e n e r g y t e c h n o l o g i e s , 2 0 1 3 - 2 0 2 2 .48 Figure 2.5 A n n u a l i n v e s t m e n t s v s . c a p a c i t y a d d i t i o n s fo r w i n d e n e r g y t e c h n o l o g i e s , 2 0 1 3 - 2 0 2 2 .49 Figure 2.6 A n n u a l i n v e s t m e n t s v s . c a p a c i t y a d d i t i o n s fo r r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y t e c h n o l o g i e s o t h e r t h a n solar and wind, 2013-2021 .51 Figure 2.7 A n n u a l r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y i n v e s t m e n t b y a p p l i c at i o n , 2 0 1 3 - 2 0 2 2 .52 Figure 2.8 I n v e s t m e n t i n r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y b y r e g i o n o f d e s t i n at i o n , 2 0 1 3 - 2 0 2 2 54 Figure 2.9 P u b l i c a n d p r i v at e i n v e s t m e n t s i n o f f s h o r e w i n d , C h i n a , 2 0 1 3 - 2 0 2 0 55 Figure 2.10 Renewable energy investments in Viet Nam and Thailand, 2013-2020 .57 Figure 2.11 R e n e w a b l e e n e r g y i n v e s t m e n t s i n d e v e l o p i n g a n d e m e r g i n g m a r k e t s , b y t o p c o u n t r i e s , 2013-2020 .585 Figures Figure 2.12 C u m u l at i v e r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y i n v e s t m e n t i n Af r i c a a n d g l o b a l l y , 2 0 0 0 - 2 0 2 0 .60 Figure 2.13 C u m u l at i v e d o m e s t i c a n d i n t e r n at i o n a l i n v e s t m e n t i n r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y , b y r e g i o n o f d e s t i n at i o n , 2013-2020 .62 Figure 2.14 I n v e s t m e n t i n r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y b y r e g i o n o f o r i g i n , 2 0 1 3 - 2 0 2 0 63 Figure 2.15 R e g i o n a l p r o v i d e r s a n d r e c e i v e r s o f i n t e r n at i o n a l r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y i n v e s t m e n t s , 2 0 1 3 - 2 0 2 0 63 Figure 2.16 I n v e s t m e n t i n r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y , b y f i n a n c i a l i n s t r u m e n t , 2 0 1 3 - 2 0 2 0 .65 Figure 2.17 S o l a r P V a n d o n s h o r e w i n d i n v e s t m e n t s b y i n s t r u m e n t , 2 0 1 9 / 2 0 2 0 a v e r a g e .65 Figure 2.18 Renewable energy investment by region and type of investment debt vs. equity, 2013-2020 .67 Figure 2.19 D e b t a n d e q u i t y i n v e s t m e n t b y t y p e o f i n v e s t o r , 2 0 1 3 - 2 0 2 0 67 Figure 2.20 G r e e n b o n d s ’ c u m u l at i v e i s s u a n c e s , 2 0 0 7 - 2 0 2 1 .68 Figure 2.21 G S S S b o n d s ’ a n n u a l i s s u a n c e s , 2 0 0 7 - 2 0 2 1 .70 Figure 2.22 P u b l i c a n d p r i v at e i n v e s t m e n t i n r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y , 2 0 1 3 - 2 0 2 0 73 Figure 2.23 Share of public/private investments by renewable energy technology, 2020 74 Figure 2.24 Private investment in renewable energy by investor, 2013-2020 .75 Figure 2.25 A n n u a l f i n a n c i a l c o m m i t m e n t i n r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y p r o j e c t s m a d e b y i n s t i t u t i o n a l i n v e s t o r s , 2013-2020 .76 Figure 2.26 Public investment in renewable energy by investor type, 2013-2020 78 Figure 2.27 Portion of DFI funding in the form of grants and low-cost debt 80 Figure 2.28 A n n u a l i n t e r n at i o n a l p u b l i c f i n a n c i a l c o m m i t m e n t s t o d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s i n s u p p o r t o f renewable energy production, and research and development, by region, 2000-2019 81 Figure 2.29 A n n u a l c o m m i t m e n t s t o L D C s a n d n o n - L D C s i n s u p p o r t o f r e n e w a b l e s , 2 0 10 - 2 0 1 9 .82 Figure 2.30 Proportion of countries in debt distress, or at high risk of debt distress as of 31 March 2022 .83 Figure 3.1 P o p u l at i o n s e r v e d b y o f f - g r i d r e n e w a b l e p o w e r i n d e v e l o p i n g a n d e m e r g i n g e c o n o m i e s , 2 0 1 2 - 2 0 2 1 . 86 Figure 3.2 Annual investment in off-grid renewable energy and average transaction size, 2010-2021 87 Figure 3.3 Landscape of off-grid renewable energy finance, 2010-2021 USD million 88 Figure 3.4 A n n u a l i n v e s t m e n t i n o f f - g r i d r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y , b y e n e r g y u s e , 2 0 10 - 2 0 2 1 .90 Figure 3.5 A n n u a l i n v e s t m e n t i n o f f - g r i d r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y , b y o f f - g r i d p r o d u c t , a n d e n e r g y u s e , 2010-2021 92 Figure 3.6 Shares of annual investment in off-grid renewables by subregion of destination, 2015-2021 94 Figure 3.7 I n v e s t m e n t w i t h r e s p e c t t o R I S E s c o r e s a n d p o p u l at i o n s s e r v e d b y o f f - g r i d r e n e w a b l e s i n access-deficit countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2021 .96 Figure 3.8 C u m u l at i v e o f f - g r i d r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y i n v e s t m e n t s b y t y p e o f f l o w a n d r e g i o n o f o r i g i n , 2010-2021 97 Figure 3.9 A n n u a l i n v e s t m e n t i n o f f - g r i d r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y , b y f i n a n c i n g i n s t r u m e n t a n d l o c a l v e r s u s fo r e i g n currency debt, 2013-2021 99 Figure 3.10 A n n u a l c o m m i t m e n t s t o o f f - g r i d r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y b y t y p e o f i n v e s t o r , 2 0 1 5 - 2 0 2 1 101 Figure 3.11 S h a r e s o f a n n u a l o f f - g r i d r e n e w a b l e e n e r g y i n v e s t m e n t s b y p u b l i c / p r i v at e i n v e s t o r , pre-pandemic years 2015-2019 versus 2020-2021 102 Figure 3.12 P u b l i c f i n a n c e f r a m e w o r k fo r u n i v e r s a l e n e r g y a c c e s s .103 Figure 4.1 T h e f l o w o f p u b l i c f i n a n c e fo r a j u s t a n d i n c l u s i v e e n e r g y t r a n s i t i o n 1136 GLOBAL LANDSCAPE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY FINANCE 2023 TABLES Table 1.1 A n n u a l i n v e s t m e n t n e e d s b y t e c h n o l o g i c a l a v e n u e i n t h e s h o r t a n d l o n g t e r m s 33 Table 1.2 Af r i c a n c o u n t r i e s w i t h t h e h i g h e s t c a p i t a l e x p e n d i t u r e o n o i l a n d g a s e x p l o r at i o n , 2 0 2 0 - 2 0 2 2 . . . . . . 39 Table 2.1 I n v e s t m e n t p e r c a p i t a b y r e g i o n a n d p o p u l at i o n g r o w t h , 2 0 1 5 - 2 0 2 1 59 Table 4.1 M a c r o e c o n o m i c p o l i c i e s t h at a f f e c t t h e d e l i v e r y o f p u b l i c f u n d s 114 BOXES Box 1.1 Hydrogen investments .35 Box 2.1 Scope of CPI data Power generation vs. end-use applications .53 Box 2.2 Renewable energy trends in Viet Nam and Thailand 57 Box 2.3 The role of institutional investors .76 Box 2.4 International public finance flows to developing countries in support of renewable energy 81 Box 3.1 PAYG model to attract financing in the off-grid solar sector 93 Box 3.2 Off-grid renewable energy investments and enabling policy frameworks 95 Box 3.3 Limited