全球能源转型展望调查报告2023（英）-WBD.pdf

2023 Energy Transition Outlook Survey Report November 20222023 ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK SURVEY REPORT 2 Table of Contents Executive Summary 3 Industry Insights on Energy Transition 7 Policy and Regulation 17 Greener and Clean Energy Solutions 26 The Path Ahead 37 Methodology 38 Energy and Natural Resources Sector 41 Womble Bond Dickinson at a Glance 422023 ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK SURVEY REPORT 3 Executive Summary In a year of sudden geopolitical shifts and associated market upheaval, energy sector executives and investors are adjusting their energy transition strategies to respond to the rising pressure to access sufficient – and ideally lower-carbon – energy in the short term, while moving to carbon-free renewable sources in the long term. Accordingly, many industry leaders are deepening their focus on decarbonization, “cleaner” technologies and fully renewable resources. However, some in the sector are also dipping back into legacy fuel sources amid more recent supply and demand imbalances. These findings from the Womble Bond Dickinson WBD 2023 Energy Transition Outlook Survey extend our Global Energy and Natural Resources Team’s ongoing effort to provide insight into international progress toward a net-zero economy and the factors influencing the pace of the energy transition. This year’s results provide a fresh perspective as to how executives and investors in the sector are navigating the challenges and seizing the opportunities amid unprecedented and chaotic times. Among the major takeaways At least 70 of both energy executives and investors have changed their transition strategies to some degree over the past year. Energy executives deepened their interest in three key areas that are vital to energy transition 1 energy efficiency, 2 electrification in areas like smart buildings, efficiency technologies, and transportation, and 3 options for the development and expanded use of biofuels/biomass. While interest in hydrogen and geothermal investments remains strong, most investors expect it will take at least five or more years for green hydrogen or geothermal to have a meaningful impact. Nuclear power has increased its appeal as an investment or growth opportunity; however, many investors still worry about public opposition to the technology, a concern some executives share. When it comes to ESG, nearly three-quarters of energy executives report having implemented ESG policies or are in the process of doing so, though it appears to be less of a priority for investors this year.2023 ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK SURVEY REPORT 4 Skepticism around U.S. climate goals persists. Even though 42 of respondents said the U.S. is “likely” or “very likely” to reach President Biden’s target of decarbonizing the power sector by 2035 – up from 32 last year – nearly a quarter said that goal is “very unlikely,” compared to 13 in 2021. At the same time, while executives are more confident than they were a year ago that energy companies are prepared to reduce GHG emissions, investor confidence on that front has slipped. Societal expectations continue to be a critical driver for this global transformation. But so is increased awareness of the energy security imperative. At this year’s Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference, energy security was among the hottest topics, with energy availability a key concern for governments the world over. The war in Ukraine has disrupted energy supplies – most obviously in Europe – while driving considerable demand shifts across the globe. These factors have driven heightened interest in renewables and other clean power sources as energy prices surge worldwide, with global oil and gas sector income set to rise to 4 trillion this year, double the 2021 level and more than twice its five- year average, according to the International Energy Agency. Indeed, market shifts and new policies to address the global energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could expedite the clean energy transition away from fossil fuels, assuming governments follow through on those policy goals, the IEA said in its 2022 World Energy Outlook, released October 27. Many hope the transition to renewables will help ease the strain on industries and consumers facing a sharp rise in energy costs. 2023 ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK SURVEY REPORT 5 To that end, oil and gas companies are investing profits in renewables projects as part of a long-term strategy. In the medium term, the accelerating development of decarbonization technologies demonstrates the recognition that fossil fuels will be part of our energy security equation for years to come. Here in the United States, sweeping domestic legislation such as the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act IIJA – which contained tens of billions of dollars committed to clean energy investments, including more than 62 billion for Department of Energy DOE programs – gave a significant boost to renewable energy development. Meanwhile, this year’s Inflation Reduction Act IRA, the most significant U.S. climate legislation ever passed, provides considerable follow-on incentives for the energy industry. The bill’s approximately 369 billion in funding provides considerable investment for clean energy production and the development of clean energy technology, support for transitioning utilities to clean electricity and increased tax credits for a broad array of renewable projects, including those that embrace hydrogen and carbon capture technology. Against this volatile backdrop, WBD again sought to capture attitudes and insights in the sector by surveying a cohort of 130-plus energy industry leaders, from investors to C-suite executives, across a range of energy subsectors, including oil and gas, renewables, utilities, mining and minerals, and nuclear energy. Responses from “executives” comprise those with C-suite titles, business or operations managers and in-house legal roles. Our second annual survey results show that, despite rising challenges, the energy industry remains committed to shifting to more sustainable power sources while looking to natural gas as the transition fuel of choice to help manage energy security concerns as it moves toward more sustainable power sources. Key Findings Energy leaders have responded to difficult market and geopolitical conditions by accelerating their adoption of generally cleaner fuel sources. Both executives and investors expect the industry to increase energy supply, notably regardless of fuel source, to counteract current price inflation. At least half of all respondents think the IIJA will move the needle on areas including battery storage, hydrogen hubs and the transmission grid. Considerably fewer think that nuclear power will benefit from the legislation. Respondents viewed vehicle pricing, lack of infrastructure and battery supply roughly equally when asked about hurdles to consumer electric vehicle EV adoption. Insufficient driving range and lack of compelling incentives were less of a concern, likely because respondents find the foundational technologies to be, at least in the near term, lacking. Utility executives are in broad agreement about the biggest challenges facing the industry. Far and away, they cite fuel availability, supply chain disruptions and regulatory compliance as their most pressing challenges.2023 ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK SURVEY REPORT 6 Core Energy Team In the charts and analysis, responses to some questions do not add up to 100 due to rounding, and some exceed 100 because respondents were invited to select more than one answer. Responses from “executives” comprise those with C-suite titles, business or operations managers, and in-house legal roles. For the full survey methodology, see pages 38-40. Jeffrey Whittle Head of Global Energy and Natural Resources Sector jeffrey.whittlewbd-us.com Lisa Rushton Co-Head, Energy Natural Resources Sector Head, Renewable Energy Subsector lisa.rushtonwbd-us.com Belton Zeigler Co-Head, Energy and Natural Resources Sector Head, Utilities Subsector belton.zeiglerwbd-us.com Francisco Balduzzi Partner, Energy Natural Resources Sector francisco.balduzziwbd-us.com Brad De Vore Head of Metals Mining Subsector brad.devorewbd-us.com Damian Georgino Head of Water Water Infrastructure Subsector damian.georginowbd-us.com Shawan Gillians Of Counsel, Energy Natural Resources Sector shawan.gillianswbd-us.com Daniella Landers Partner, Energy Natural Resources Sector daniella.landerswbd-us.com Jed Nosal Partner, Energy Natural Resources Sector jed.nosalwbd-us.com Paul Turner Head of Commodities Trading Subsector paul.turnerwbd-us.com Jos Luis Vittor Head of Oil Gas Subsector Head of Latin America Practice joseluis.vittorwbd-us.com7 2023 ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK SURVEY REPORT Industry Insights on Energy Transition2023 ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK SURVEY REPORT 8                                         
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 Industry Insights on Energy Transition Energy transition strategies have shifted Reflecting the strong geopolitical and market pressures of the past 12 months, 79 of energy executives and 72 of investors have changed their transition strategies at least slightly since 2021, with both groups placing more focus on renewables, natural gas and decarbonization technologies. Those pressures – along with significant regulatory and legislative shifts – are prompting many in the sector to reassess their priorities, needs and capabilities in areas from meeting reduction targets to implementing ESG policies. An increasing number of energy executives also say energy efficiency improvements, biofuel/biomass, and electrification of areas like smart buildings, efficiency technologies, and transportation are relevant investment or growth opportunities for their business. * e g , smart buildings, efficiency technologies, and transportation/vehicles e g , ethanol, methane, agricultural waste, waste to energy “New transmission corridors” in 2021 ♦ This answer choice was not provided in the 2021 survey Thinking specifically for your business, which of the following are the most relevant investment or growth opportunities in energy transition at this time Please choose up to five This chart reflects responses from executives2023 ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK SURVEY REPORT 9 “Volatile market conditions are pushing industry leaders to increase their focus on renewables, with the high price of fuel helping to push the transition along,” said Jeffrey Whittle, global head of WBD’s Energy and Natural Resources Sector. That’s certainly the case for utility providers, according to WBD Energy and Natural Resources Sector attorney Shawan Gillians, who noted, “The electric market is moving toward renewables for financial reasons, regardless of what the political headwinds are.” How has your company’s energy transition strategy investment or operations changed over the past year                      2023 ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK SURVEY REPORT 10                                     Which of the following explains how your plans have shifted relative to the following This chart reflects responses from investors who indicated that their organizations’ energy transition strategies have changed over the past year. Which of the following explains how your plans have shifted relative to the following This chart reflects responses from executives who indicated that their organizations’ energy transition strategies have changed over the past year.                                       2023 ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK SURVEY REPORT 11 Market conditions appear to have influenced this change Market conditions are accelerating the rate of transition and determining the prioritization of investments even as the need to mitigate climate change is the foundational driver. As high demand for natural gas and fuel outstrips supply, the sector is turning back to traditional energy sources such as oil and coal, potentially as stopgap measures to ensure near-term energy security. And, with soaring profits and increased pressure to meet ESG metrics, energy executives have increased capital budgets to invest in the development of renewable resources, transmission and storage. “Given the uncertainty of the times, energy leaders seem to be trying to extend the life of coal as much as they can, as a hedge,” Whittle said “But the use of renewables is clearly on the rise across the board ” Of course, executives and investors approach the issue of energy transition differently. Investors place multiple bets on a variety of technologies, while executives tend to focus on one or two most relevant to their core businesses. As you will see throughout this report, the contrast between strategy and tactics is apparent in the approaches of these two groups. Executives are more optimistic than investors that the build- out of the grid and further development of renewables will counter rising prices Executives are far more bullish than investors on the potential for new developments in decarbonization technologies and the acceleration of renewable development to counteract recent price hikes. More striking, however, is the disparity in what executives and investors view as the role energy storage must play in addressing rising energy costs. This likely arises from a recognition by executives that storage is vital for grid stability – especially when integrating fluctuating renewable energy resources – as well as for the overall balance of supply and demand. The greater pessimism among investors, on the other hand, may stem from concern about the source of funding for building out and modernizing the grid to support a large-scale renewable transition.