世界能源就业报告（英）-IEA.pdf

World Energy EmploymentThe IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries, 11 association countries and beyond. Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t power sector generation, transmission, distribution and storage; and end uses, including vehicles and energy efficiency for buildings and industry. It also details segments of the value chain where these jobs are located, including raw materials, manufacturing, construction, utilities, and wholesale, as well as how many are employed for building new projects versus operating existing energy facilities, which includes those working in operating and maintenance of plants. It also provides estimates for emerging segments for energy, including clean energy innovation. This mapping can serve as a much-needed foundation for global energy decision makers, and provides important insights about the potential opportunities and impacts to labour markets under different drivers, particularly the transitions to clean energy, as well as shifting or development of supply chain capacities. How these labour markets evolve will be explored in depth by scenarios presented in our World Energy Outlook series. . World Energy Employment PAGE | 4 Foreword IEA. All rights reserved. Foreword The current energy crisis brought on by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is prompting countries and companies to accelerate their clean energy transitions and urgently shift and secure their energy supply chains. The success of these efforts will rest on the shoulders of the 65 million workers currently employed in the energy sector and the ability of the energy sector to attract and train new workers. As presented in the IEA’s Global Roadmap to Net Zero Emissions by 2050, realising this pivot requires many more workers than today, and while some jobs will be lost, many more will be created. The new jobs will not always be in the places where jobs are lost, but they may suit the workers and skill sets from industries that are downsizing. With strategic foresight and commitment to achieving just and people-centred transitions, policy makers and industry decision makers can provide the support workers need to transition out of declining industries and maximise opportunities for additional good quality jobs across different regions. This can be done by capitalising on existing strengths, infrastructure and skill sets; promoting innovation; and identifying opportunities in new and emerging areas. This is why I convened the Global Commission on People-Centred Clean Energy Transitions to develop actionable recommendations for governments, companies and civil society to maximise the benefits of the transition for people and workers. Building public support for clean energy transitions is more essential than ever if we are to make consistent, enduring progress on fulfilling the world’s energy and climate commitments. Creating well-paid, quality jobs is a core pillar of this. It is why the IEA’s Clean Energy Labour Council brings together energy leaders and labour union representatives from around the world to understand the challenges the energy sector faces and find ways to address them while improving conditions for workers and attracting a more skilled and diverse workforce. The most immediate recommendation from the Commission and Council was to develop a comprehensive baseline of global energy employment by region and by technology. This inaugural edition of the World Energy Employment Report does just that by providing a first-of-its-kind picture of global energy employment. This work is just a starting point for the IEA and will be updated annually, diving deeper into different sectors and regions each year. The IEA’s World Energy Outlook series will also deepen its examination of energy sector labour needs and how they shift under different scenarios. The transition to a secure and sustainable energy future for all requires unprecedented shifts in the global energy sector. Its success will depend a great deal on the actions governments, industry, labour representatives and educators take to prepare the energy workforce of tomorrow. Above all, it will depend on the capable workers responsible for designing, building, operating and overseeing the new energy economy. Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director International Energy Agency World Energy Employment PAGE | 5 Table of contents IEA. All rights reserved. Table of contents Overview 8 Introduction 9 Total energy employment, 2019 . 10 Box Scope and drivers of global energy employment 14 Energy employment trends, 2019-2022 19 Skills, training and wages . 20 Energy employment and gender 22 Fuel supply 22 Oil supply . 24 Coal supply 26 Box Quality of energy jobs. 28 Natural gas supply 29 Bioenergy supply 31 Power sector 32 Power generation . 33 Solar PV . 34 Coal power . 36 Wind power 38 Oil and gas power 40 Power transmission, distribution and storage . 41 Box Access to electricity and clean cooking 42 Energy end use and efficiency . 43 Vehicles manufacturing 44 Efficiency in buildings and industry . 46 Looking forward 48 Employment growth in IEA scenarios . 49 People-centred transitions 50 Innovative clean energy technologies . 51 Box Improvement of energy employment data 52 Next steps 53 Annexes . 54 Methodology . 55 Glossary . 58 Acknowledgments 61 World Energy Employment PAGE | 6 Executive summary IEA. All rights reserved. Executive summary Energy employment is set to shift rapidly as countries and companies accelerate efforts to decarbonise and meet net zero emissions pledges. To date, there is no global benchmark dataset for employment across the energy sector. This report aims to provide this baseline by sector, region, and value chain segment. These estimates were calibrated against more than 15 000 data points on employment and wages gathered from national labour accounts, company reports, in-country experts, international databases and academic literature. The end product is a first-of-its- kind assessment of global energy employment, which can serve as a foundation for policy makers and companies to understand the labour-related opportunities and challenges of an evolving global energy sector. The energy sector employed over 65 million people in 2019, equivalent to around 2 of global employment. These jobs are roughly equally distributed across fuel supply 21 million, in the power sector 20 million, and in end uses 24 million such as energy efficiency and vehicle manufacturing. Energy sector employment has recovered strongly, after a turbulent few years in global labour markets. At the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, layoffs were common across geographies, especially in oil and gas supply. Yet, energy employment exceeds pre-pandemic levels today thanks to resilient growth in clean energy. Fossil fuel employment, however, is only set to return to pre-pandemic levels this year. Hiring gaps and tight labour markets have contributed to supply chain disruptions and project delays in many parts of the energy sector, notably offshore wind, oil and gas, and energy efficiency retrofits. Today’s global energy crisis could prompt governments and industry to rethink their global supply chain exposures especially vis--vis dependence on Russia’s fossil fuels. This may portend another few years of larger-than-normal shifts in energy employment. Clean energy employs over 50 of total energy workers, owing to the substantial growth of new projects coming online. Most regions have surpassed this threshold already, though the Middle East and Russia are notable exceptions. Many clean energy segments rival the workforce in conventional energy segments. Low-carbon power generation, mainly solar and wind, employs 7.8 million, on par with oil supply. Vehicle manufacturing employment, which stands at 13.6 million globally, already employs 10 of its workforce in the manufacture of EVs, their components and batteries. Over half of energy employment is in the Asia Pacific region. Rapid energy infrastructure expansion in Asia Pacific is outpacing other regions, and lower-cost labour is enabling the emergence of significant clean energy manufacturing hubs that supply projects worldwide, notably for solar, electric and hybrid vehicles, and batteries. China alone accounts for almost 30 of the global energy workforce. However, established energy companies in North America and Europe maintain global market strength and anchor a sizeable employment base working on domestic and overseas projects, as is the case in oil and gas, wind, and vehicle engineering. World Energy Employment PAGE | 7 Executive summary IEA. All rights reserved. The construction of new projects, including the manufacture of their components, is the largest driver of energy employment across the value chain. Over 60 of the workforce is employed to develop new projects, including building power plants, bringing oil wells online and laying pipelines, manufacturing cars, carrying out efficiency retrofits and installing high-efficiency electric heat pumps. The energy sector requires higher-skilled workers than other industries. Around 45 of energy workers today are in high-skilled occupations, compared to only one-quarter across the economy. This share is even higher for jobs in research and development for new energy innovations, many of which are set to grow rapidly to 2030. Strategic planning can ensure that scaling is not hampered by a shortage of skilled workers. Establishing market strength in these segments relies on new training and certification, and can be a focus for industry along with ministries of energy, labour, and education. Workers in coal and other fossil fuels have many of the skills needed to fill positions in growing clean energy sectors. Fossil fuels employ almost 32 million globally today. Some companies are transferring their workers to low-carbon segments internally to retain talent, and allow for flexibility to shift workers between different business segments as needs arise. However, this is not an option everywhere, and ensuring a just transition for affected workers is a growing focus for policy makers in many regions, especially for coal, which has already seen consistent declines since 2015. There is tremendous growth for energy employment on the horizon, driven primarily by new investments to decarbonise. In all IEA scenarios, energy employment is set to grow, outweighing declines in fossil fuel jobs. In the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, we estimate that 14 million new clean energy jobs are created by 2030, while another 16 million workers shift to new roles related to clean energy. Around 60 of these new jobs require some degree of post-secondary training. Making growth in employment people-centred is key to global energy transitions. Maximising job quality helps to attract workers, including those moving from other parts of the energy sector. Energy sector wages typically see a premium over economy-wide average wages, though this premium ranges substantially from 10 to 50 across advanced economies alone. Established industries such as nuclear, oil and gas typically offer the highest wages. Newer segments, such as solar, do not have the same labour protections and union representation as established fossil fuel industries, especially in emerging market and developing economies. The percentage of women in the energy workforce is also consistently low when compared to economy-wide averages, with less than 15 in senior management positions. Energy employment is central to the IEA’s work on accelerating clean energy transitions globally. We will continue to analyse and model global energy employment, including with an increased focus on skills, worker demographics, and best practices for ensuring a secure and just transition. However, all countries have a role in improving energy labour force data. Better data is essential to ground conversations on energy policy and to support workers, governments, labour unions, and companies as they prepare to seize the opportunities of the new energy economy. World Energy Employment PAGE | 8 Overview IEA. All rights reserved. Overview World Energy Employment PAGE | 9 Overview IEA. All rights reserved. Introduction Clean energy transitions and efforts to decarbonise energy are the prevailing trend reshaping global energy employment. Countries representing over 70 of global emissions today have committed to net zero emissions targets by mid-century, which will create millions of new clean energy jobs around the world. A paradigm shift in the energy workforce will require strategic foresight to train up the requisite workforce for deploying clean energy at scale as well as just transition policies that provide for employees negatively affected by these changes. The IEA’s seminal report, Net Zero by 2050 A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector NZE Scenario, projects that the energy transition will create 14 million new jobs related to clean energy technologies and require the shift of around 5 million workers away from fossil fuel sectors. In addition to these new roles, 16 million workers will require shift to work in clean energy segments, requiring additional skills and training. However, this report also comes out amidst an energy crisis incurred by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This creates urgent imperatives for the energy sector, some of which are accelerating the switch off fossil fuels, and others which are focused on shoring up security of supply. Governments are working with the private sector to localise production and address global supply chain weaknesses, both within fossil fuels and key clean energy segments, including the minerals critical to their manufacture. This builds on the unprecedented USD 710 billion governments made available to clean energy in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic in the name of sustainable recoveries. Companies cannot respond to these market and policy signals without the skilled workforce needed to deliver these projects in the regions they are being developed. Shortages of skilled labour across energy supply chains are already translating into project delays and impacting investment decisions in some sectors, such as oil, gas, and offshore wind. While worldwide labour markets remain in flux since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, energy has been among the fastest evolving industries globally in the last five years. To navigate the evolutions in the workforce on the horizon, decision makers require better visibility into energy empl