5、王仲颖：中国能源转型展望 (1).pdf

中国能源转型展望 2021 China Energy Transformation Outlook 2021 王仲颖 Zhongying Wang 中国宏观经济研究院能源研究所 Energy Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research 2021-11-10 Outline ◼ 研究背景 Research background ◼ 模型方法 Modelling method ◼ 情景设定 Scenarios ◼ 发展展望 Development outlook ◼ 发展建议 Development suggestions “ 能源是无可替 代的 。 现代生活 完全是架构于能 源之上的 。 能源 是与空气 、 水和 土 地 等 同 的 要 素 ” 。 2019年的全球人均能源消费 Energy consumption per capita in 2019 能源与现代社会发展关系 The relationship between energy and development of modern society “Energy is irreplaceable as modern life is completely structured on the basis of energy, an essential factor just as important as air, water and land.“ Theodore W. Schultz 03 单位千瓦时 / Unit kWh 7 0 .7 7 2 .2 7 6 .2 6 8 .5 5 6 .8 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 9 7 8 1 9 8 0 1 9 9 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 一次能源消费结构（ ） 原煤（ Co a l ） 原油（ O il ） 天然气（ G a s ） 一次电力（ H Energy supply revolution as the foundation; Energy technology revolution as the driving force; Energy system revolution as the guarantee; and International energy cooperation as the trend. 10 International Energy Cooperation Reform in Energy Technology Energy Supply Reform Energy Consumption Reform Energy System Reform Energy supply and demand security Energy environment security Energy climate security Energy economy security 过去 15年 ， 中国碳排放强度下降 超额完成 2020年气候行动目标 全国万元国内生产总值二氧化碳排放水平较 2005年下降 48.4；非化石能源在一次能源 消费中的占比进一步提升至 15.9。 中国在能源低碳转型方面付出巨大努力 China has given great efforts on low-carbon energy transition In the past 15 years, China’s emission intensity reduction has far exceeded the 2020 target of the Climate Action Plan By 2020, the CO2 emission/ RMB 10,000 of GDP decreased by 48.4 compared to 2005; the share of non-fossil fuel in total primary energy consumption further raised to 15.9 05 2005-2020 CO2 emissions /GDP dropped by 48.4 2005-2020 installed capacity of PV increased by 3000 times 2010-2020 energy consumption intensity decreased by 28.7 Share of non-fossil fuel 15.9 2005-2020 installed capacity of wind power increased by 200 times Installed capacity of RE 934 GW Production and sales of new energy vehicles ranked 1 for six years 水电 、 风电 、 光伏装机容量 排名世界第一 自 可再生能源法 颁布以来 ， 中国 非化石能源实现跨越式发展 ， 水电 、 风电 、 光伏装机容量合计突破 9.0亿 千瓦 。 非化石能源实现跨越式发展 Leapfrog development achieved in non-fossil fuels China’s total installed hydropower, wind and solar PV capacity ranked the first in the world Since the promulgation of the Renewable Energy Law, China has achieved leapfrog development in non-fossil fuels, with the combined capacity of installed hydropower, wind and solar PV plants surpassing 900 GW. 06 Outline ◼ 研究背景 Research background ◼ 模型方法 Modelling method ◼ 情景设定 Scenarios ◼ 发展展望 Development outlook ◼ 发展建议 Development suggestions 中国能源分析模型系统 “ 中国终端能源需求分析模型 ” 、 “ 中国 电力部署优化模型 ” 、 “ 中国经济社会评 价模型 ” 。 模型方法 Introduction to modelling method “China energy analysis model system ERI-DEMAND, ERI-EDO, ERI-CGE. 12 能源系统分析框架 基于全社会效益最大化准则 ， 实现技术经 济评价 、 能源系统优化 、 政策措施及经济 社会评价 、 能源外部性分析等 。 模型方法 Introduction to model method and scenario setting “China energy analysis model system Based on the criterion of maximizing the benefits of the whole society, realize technical and economic evaluation, energy system optimization, policy measures, economic and social evaluation, energy Externality Analysis, etc. 13 Outline ◼ 研究背景 Research background ◼ 模型方法 Modelling method ◼ 情景设定 Scenarios ◼ 发展展望 Development outlook ◼ 发展建议 Development suggestions NDC目标 2020年单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比 2005年下降 40-45， 非化石能源占一次能源消 费比重达到 15左右 。 二氧化碳排放 2030年左右达到峰值并争取尽早达峰 ， 单位国内生产总 值二氧化碳排放比 2005年下降 60-65， 非化石能源占一次能源消费比重达到 20左右 。 情景设置介绍 Introduction to model method and scenario setting In 2020, the carbon dioxide emission per unit of GDP will be 40 - 45 lower than that in 2005, and the proportion of non-fossil fuel in primary energy consumption will reach about 15. Carbon dioxide emissions will peak around 2030 and strive to reach the peak as soon as possible. Carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will decrease by 60 - 65 compared with 2005, and the proportion of non-fossil fuel in primary energy consumption will reach about 20. 15 NDC更新目标 二氧化碳排放力争于 2030年前达到峰值 ， 努力争取 2060年前实现碳中和 。 到 2030年 ， 中国单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放将比 2005年下降 65以上 ， 非 化石能源消费比重将达到 25左右 ， 风电 、 太阳能发电总装机容量将达到 12亿 。 千瓦以上 。 Carbon dioxide emissions will reach the peak by 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutralization by 2060. By 2030, Chinas carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be more than 65 lower than that in 2005, the proportion of non fossil energy consumption will reach about 25, and the total installed capacity of wind and solar power will reach 1200 GW. 情景设置 设置 “ 基准 情景 ” 和 “ 碳中和情景 ” 二大 情景研究未来可能的发展道路 ， 分析其中 产生的挑战与机遇 。 其中碳中和情景中国需要做出更大的努力 ， 实现更优的发展路径 。 情景设置介绍 Introduction of scenario setting Scenario setting Set up Baseline Scenario BLS and Carbon Neutrality Scenario CNS, study the possible development path in the future, and analyze the challenges and opportunities. In CNS, China needs to make greater efforts to make a better development pathway. BLS Achieving the commitment to the Paris Agreement and prospects for the development of energy system under the goal of Beautiful China. Retrace the 2050 target and expand to 2060 CNS On the basis of the Paris Agreement and the construction of Beautiful China, strengthen the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutral, implement the energy system development prospects under the established policies. Retrace the 30-60 dual carbon targets 16 主要假设 2035年基本实现现代化 ， 2050年建成社 会主义现代化强国 ， 实现美丽中国发展 。 充分考虑风 、 光各类发电技术成本下降潜 力 ， 全面考虑储能 、 电动汽车发展空间 。 主要假设介绍 Introduction to model method and scenario assumptions Scenario assumptions Basically realizing socialist modernization by 2035 and making China a great modern socialist country by 2050. Fully considering cost reduction potential of all power generation technologies including wind and PV, comprehensively considering the development potential of energy storage and EV. 17 Energy transformation Power system transformation Industry electrification Green power industry growth Economic transformation The three synchronous transformations in a green and low-carbon development patch Industrial end-use transformation from fossil fuels to electricity Sectors of the industry Transformation to information, digitalization and smart Power system transformation from coal to renewable energy Deep transformation of the industry and energy sector structure could result in a reduction of total primary energy consumption from 6500 – 7500 Mtce to 47-48 Mtce in 2060 Outline ◼ 研究背景 Research background ◼ 模型方法 Modelling method ◼ 情景设定 Scenarios ◼ 发展展望 Development outlook ◼ 发展建议 Development suggestions 一次 能源消费总量将于 2040年左右达峰 ， 能源 效率不断提升 中国一次能源消费总量将在 2040年左右达到峰值 ， 峰值约在 61亿吨标煤 ， 2060年将降至 47-48亿吨标 煤 。 单位 GDP能源消费强度逐步降至 2060年的 5.4 吨标煤 /万元 ， 进入世界前列 。 碳达峰碳中和情景模拟 Scenario simulation of Carbon Neutrality Scenario CNS Total primary energy consumption is expected to peak around 2040, while energy efficiency continues to improve Chinas total primary energy consumption is expected to peak around 2040, at around 6100Mtce, and to drop to 4700-4800 Mce in 2060. In 2060, energy consumption per unit of GDP gradually decreases to 5.4 tce / RMB 10,000, making China one of the global leading country in this regard. 19 4500 5500 6500 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Mt ce Total primary energy consumption BLS CNS 0 20 40 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 tce/RM B 1 0,0 00 Energy intensity BLS CNS 能源消费结构持续改善 ， 可再生能源发 展成为主体能源 2035 年 非化石 能 源发 展比 重 将达 到 31.9- 34， 到 2060年非化石能源比重将进一步 增加到 91.2-96.8， 可再生能源成为中国 主导能源 。 As the energy consumption structure continuously improves, renewable energy becomes a dominant source of energy supply With the share of non-fossil fuels projected to reach 31.9-34 in 2035 and to further increase to 91.2-96.8 in 2060, renewable energy will become a dominant source of energy supply in China. 20 碳达峰碳中和情景模拟 Scenario simulation of CNS 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 BLS 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 CNS 化石能源消费将逐步达峰 煤炭 、 石油和天然气消费将先后达峰 ， 风 、 光 等非化石能源将逐步从能源增量主体 ， 进入存 量化石能源替代 ， 最终成为主力能源 。 Fossil fuel consumption will reach the peak The energy consumption of the coal, oil and gas will reach the peak one by one, while non-fossil fuels including wind and solar energy will gradually transfer from dominating incremental energy consumption to replacing fossil fuel in existing energy consumption, and ultimately becomes the main energy source. 21 碳达峰碳中和情景模拟 Scenario simulation of CNS 0 10 20 30 40 50 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Mt ce Coal consumption BLS CNS 0 2 4 6 8 2020 2025 203 0 20 35 204 0 2045 205 0 205 5 206 0 Mt ce Oil consumption BLS CNS 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 2020 2025 203 0 203 5 204 0 204 5 205 0 205 5 206 0 Mt ce Natural gas consumption BLS CNS 终端部门能源消费在 2030年达到峰值 终端部门能源消费将在 2030年左右达到峰值 ， 2060 年 终 端 部 门 能 源 消 费 将 分 别 降 至 26.5- 21.8亿吨标煤 。 其中工业和建筑行业二氧化碳排 放 2025年左右达峰 ， 交通运输行业二氧化碳排 放 2030年左右达到峰值 。 Energy consumption in the end-use sectors is expected to peak in 2030 China’s energy consumption in the end-use sectors is expected to peak around 2030, and to drop to 2650-2180 Mtce in 2060. While the industry and construction sector is to peak the CO2 emissions around 2025, the transport sector is to peak the CO2 emissions around 2030. 22 碳达峰碳中和情景模拟 Scenario simulation of CNS 2060 China Energy Flow Chart Mtce 终端电气化水平大幅提高 2060年电气化水平将 达到 54-74（ 含电 制氢为 67.7-97.5） ； 电气化将带动电 力需求持续增长 ， 全社会用电量将分别突破 14.6-17.3万亿千瓦时 。 The electrification rate will significantly rises in the end-use sectors The electrification rate will reach 54-7467.7 - 97.5 with hydrogen production in 2060; Electrification will drive the continuous growth of power demand, and the power consumption of the whole society will exceed 14,600-17,300 TWh. 23 碳达峰碳中和情景模拟 Scenario simulation of CNS 0 20 40 60 80 100 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Electrification Rate BLS CNS 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 2020 20 25 203 0 2035 204 0 204 5 205 0 205 5 206 0 Gw Installed renewable power capacity BLS CNS 0 4000 8000 12000 16000 20000 2020 2025 203 0 203 5 204 0 204 5 2050 205 5 206 0 TWh Renewable electricity generation BLS CNS 风电和光伏将成为绝对主力能源 2035年风电装机将达到 9.9-10.3亿千瓦 ， 光 伏装机突破 14.0-17.5亿千瓦 。 2060年风电 装机将达到 25.0-33.0亿千瓦 ， 光伏装机突破 30.7-38.5亿千瓦 。 Wind power and solar PV will become the dominant energy source By 2035, total installed wind power capacity to reach 990-1030 GW and solar PV to reach 1400-1750 GW. By 2060, total installed wind power capacity to reach 2500-3300 GW and solar PV to reach 3070-3850 GW. 24 碳达峰碳中和情景模拟 Scenario simulation of CNS 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 BLS Coal Natural gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar Biomass Others 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 CNS Coal Natural gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar Biomass Others 不同时空特性的灵活性资源保障电力系统 安全 、 可靠运行 “ 十四五 ” 、 “ 十五五 ” 煤电和抽蓄仍将是主 要调节资源 ， 多时间尺度各类储能和电制 X将 在远期成为电力系统主力调节资源 。 Flexible resources with different temporal and spatial characteristics ensure safe and reliable operations of the power system During the 14th and the 15th FYP periods, coal power and pumped storage still remain the main regulation resources. Energy storage and power-to-x technologies at multi-time scales are expected to be the main regulation resources of the power system in the long run. 25 0 500 1000 1500 D ay 1 D ay 2 D ay 3 D ay 4 D ay 5 D ay 6 D ay 7 P ower generation G Wh C oa l N atura l g as N uc l e ar Hyd ro B iomas s Geo t her ma l Oc ea n ener gy Win d So lar St o rage dis charg e V2G d isc har ge Tot al0 5 00 1000 1500 200 0 25 00 D ay 1 D ay 2 D ay 3 D ay 4 D ay 5 D ay 6 D ay 7 P ower generation G Wh C oa l N atura l g as N uc l e ar Hyd ro B iomas s Geo t her ma l Oc ea n ener gy Win d So lar St o rage dis charg e V2G d isc har ge Tot al0 5 00 1000 1500 200 0 25 00 300 0 350 0 4000 D ay 1 D ay 2 D ay 3 D ay 4 D ay 5 D ay 6 D ay 7 P ower generation G Wh C oa l N atura l g as N uc l e ar Hyd ro B iomas s Geo t her ma l Oc ea n ener gy Win d So lar St o rage dis charg e V2G d isc har ge Tot al Hourly power balance in China’s power system for 2025 summer in the CNS Hourly power balance in China’s power system for 2035 summer in the CNS Hourly power balance in China’s power system for 2060 summer in the CNS 碳达峰碳中和情景模拟 Scenario simulation of CNS 26 碳达峰碳中和情景模拟 Scenario simulation of CNS Electrochemical energy storage, demand side response Pumped storage, CAES, PtX Power to X, seasonal heat storage 300.500 million EV V2G 周、月调节 Weekly, monthly regulation 季节调节 Seasonal regulation日、小时调节 Daily, hourly regulation 各类储能规模超过 20亿千瓦 ，需求响应超过 2.6亿千瓦 。 Total energy storage capacity exceeds 2000 GW, demand side response capacity exceeds 2600 GW. 2060 0 5 00 1000 1500 200 0 25 00 300 0 350 0 4000 D ay 1 D ay 2 D ay 3 D ay 4 D ay 5 D ay 6 D ay 7 P o wer generation G Wh C oa l N atura l g as N uc l e ar Hyd ro B iomas s Geo t her ma l Oc ea n ener gy Win d So lar St o rage dis charg e V2G d isc har ge Tot al