构建“新型电⼒系统”与容量充⾜性——基于需求⾼峰时刻可得发电资源的实证分析-卓尔德环境研究中心.pdf

构建“新型电力系统”与容量充足性⸺ 基于需求高峰时刻可得发电资源的实证分析 二 O二二年六月 卓尔德环境研究中心 能源与清洁空气研究中心 Power system adequacy and “New Power System” development in China g68Ag11C7gE62gE85 g713gA5EgB9Bg123Eg939g13B8g146Ag4FEgB9Eg481Draworldg482 g557g52Ag1686g10E0g4E8g123Eg939gDB2g14BDg335g1962g69Ag4E8g1DB1g1353g19A7g58Cg1331gB2Bg12A0g13B8g146Ag4E8g7CEg19C3gE62gE85g336gE62gE85gCDCgE4DgB1Ag158CgCB7g1686g10E0g156Ag1067gFC8g5F2g1593 g773g19A7g570gF5Cg8F3g481DERC-IAMg485g95Ag704g912g156Ag1067gF5Cg8F3g482g4E8gC6Fg8B5g12AAg6CEg156EgE85gF5CgCD9gF5Cg8F3g481DERC-Pg485gA5CgDF8g693g1B19g1232g12AAg6CEgB18 g190Dg482g485g5A2g505gED0gB9EgAE1g5A2gAE1g64Dg336g1353g6B9g506g195Dg557g52AgC6Fg8B5g4E8g4EEg12B4gFC8g5F2gDB2g14BDg74Ag64Cg530g6D6g335g1C29g1C48g10AEgB36g67AgD2Dg74Ag64CgC6Fg8B5g158CgB36g485g566 g74Ag1686g10E0g152Eg1579gDC4gA01g6F8g14B5gAE1g5A2g336 www.draworld.org g1686g10E0g4E8g10B4g1044g146EgFC8g13B8g146Ag4FEgB9E g481CREAg482 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g70Fg4F3g955gA0AgA3Bg1C01gA9CCg1A83gBD4g19A7g58C 19 3.1 g70Fg4F3gE0Eg12AAg6CEg1A2Eg179Ag4FEgB9E 19 3.2 g1DDAg12AAg637g579g8D0g64DgE4DgE14g17EAg5DBg19A4gA3Bg1C01 21 3.3 g70Fg4F3g955gA0Ag1BB1g693g135Cg572g11FFg1488gB18g190DgE4Dg734g6CE 22 g14ABg8A5g148D g70Fg4FEg667gA0AgA3Bg1C01gA9CCg1A83gBD4g19A7g58C 25 4.1 g70Fg4FEg135Cg572g1A2Eg179Ag530g1911gBD4gE45gB69 25 4.2 g70Fg4FEg771g135Cg667gA0Ag74Eg12AAg1A52g10E0gBDBg59BgA9CCg1A83 26 4.3 g704g912gB18g190Dg1713g135C11g1331g1930gE62g1A52g10E0 28 g14ABg532g148D gBDBg156Eg4E8gB4Cg1993 29 5.1 gE45g95Fg175Cg8B1gB18g190Dg152Eg1579gDADg1345gE01gE14 29 5.2 gDDBg940g1197g12AAg15CCg513gFC8g5F2g4E8g156Ag1067g1258gBD4 29 gE85gB4C“gDDBg8F3g12AAg6CEg152Eg1579”g4E8gA3Bg1C01gA9CCg1A83gBD4 4 5.3 gDDBg8F3g12AAg6CEg152Eg1579gB4Cg19A1g1331g13A8gE57gB4Cg1993 30 g1D2BgB6Fg493gCB8g79EgDDCg1029g199Eg4E8gDC4gD1DgE76g10E0 31 1. g152Eg1579g953g12A0g1232g644gB57 31 2. g771g135C8760gA5CgDF8g1A2Eg179AgE43g155A 31 3. g12AAg6CEg1BB1g1CEA2020g1930gE62gA3Bg1C01 31 4. g1A9Cg135Cg704500kVg74Ag566g4E4g1636g1576g155A 31 gE85gB4C“gDDBg8F3g12AAg6CEg152Eg1579”g4E8gA3Bg1C01gA9CCg1A83gBD4 5 gE5Eg19CD g656gA3B g1755gDC8 g1974g1BFD gA3Bg1C01gA9CCg1A83gBD4 Capacity adequacy g12AAg6CEg152Eg1579gA02g8C1g1A83g95Cg1331g762g12A0g74Eg12AA g1686g6CEg1A52g10E0g485g566g10FFg1A83gC85gE4DgDF8g6B0g1331g1D71 gFE2g336 g1686g10E0g1AE8g8F3 Energy Transition g1686g10E0g152Eg1579g1331g156EgE85g752g6F8g485g506g195DgE0E g762g65Ag129Eg1686g10E0gA52g6F8g13AAg1686g10E0g1331gE4Ag564g485g566 g74Ag64Cg1358g649g1331gCA6gE5Eg335g156Ag1067g335gDB2g14BDg4E8gDB2 g101Cg1CEFg1DCCg336 g1DBCg1987gE4Bg95Fg1D71gFE2 Projected peak demand gEA4g4DEgF37g1232gFDCgB18g4E5g1331g152Eg1579gA60gAB6g1D71 gFE2kWg336 g12AAg6CEg152Eg1579g114Eg105AgBD4 System flexibility g152Eg1579g1D8Eg501g771g143Fg4E7g13DFgA27gBD4g556gDEFg5DB gCEEgB18g190Dg1331g1686g6CEg336g8C1g1DDAg637g572g1DD0g4E7gDD9g940 g6D2g1331g1667gE27g4E5g485g1B57gB09g1638g118Cg6F8g13AAgE62g155Fg1331 g790g60AgDF8g1CF5g335g11BBg8E0g1B5Bg1232g566g74AgE4BgA5Cg68Ag6CE g4E3g4FBgCF0gEBDg336 gB18g190Dg1DCBg1509gB36 Balance resolution/granularity g152Eg1579g1436gDC0gB4FgE62g155Fg773gA1EgD2Dg4FEg1561g1713 gFDCgB18g1331g190Dg1C01g485gFB2g987g91Ag52Dg960g335gA5CgDF8g335 15g693g1C26g1B2EgE0E5g693g1C26g1CF5g1D4Dg13DFgA27gE62g155Fg1331g68A g6CEgFDCgB18g336 g156Ag1067gDB4g1232 Economic efficiency g156Ag1067g4FEg1331gFAFg4DEg143Fg1451g15CCg1A52g10E0g8C1g129E g53Eg160Fg7BEg107Eg1A47g160Fg50Fg1CF5g1331g5B5g12A0g7BEg693g1BC8g1BB7 g1686g53Eg129EgE4Bg95Fg1331g156Ag1067g53Eg68Ag7BEgA52g107Eg1A47g160F g1331g1430g6A5g336g75Dg160Dg1864g5C0g1573g5C6g485g14B5g570g52Dg6A5 g108EgE4Bg95Fg6F8/gC6EgE5CgE4BgA5Cg6F8g494g75Dg160Dg1864g107Eg1A47 g5C6g485g14B5g570g52Dg1430g6A5g6C3g59FgE4Bg95Fg6F8g336 gE85gB4C“gDDBg8F3g12AAg6CEg152Eg1579”g4E8gA3Bg1C01gA9CCg1A83gBD4 6 g16D8g1A00g4E8g94DgE01 gE5CgCB8g79Eg12A7g713gA5EgB9Bg481Draworldg482g4E8CREAg4FEgB9Eg8ABg1D1Ag648g776gA20gC6Eg336g506g195Dg1A2Fg1220g5A2g160Fg6F1gCE1g493 gB5FgEC5g582g485 gCB8g79Eg156EgE85g19A1g1987g335g642g1464g1579g14C9g4E8g14AB2g3353g3354g3355g148Dg1BB1g693gD90g65Fg494 g17F0g1B33g1A66g485 gCB8g79Eg656gA3BgDC6g773g4E8gDC8gA01g1579g14C9g485g148Dg17131.2g3352.3g14B5gD90g65Fg485g1755gDC8g1464g1579g14C9g494 gFA8g637g101Cg485 g70Fg4FE/g70Fg4F3gDC4gD1DgDADg1D5Eg335g6ABg8B6g4E8g14AB3g3354g148Dg1713gD90g65F; g1C77gE52g485 g5DEgBF3gDADg1D5Eg4E8g14AB1g148Dg1530gE6DgDC6g1258g494 gFB3g52Fg1D86g485 g5DEgBF3gE6DgDCFgFE4gBDBg4E8gDC8gA01gECAgED0g336 g517g1279g335g1D2Fg1D6Ag9CF g14B5g8C1gDC4gD1Dg5DEgBF3g335g8B6g1912g6ABg5A2g335gDC8gA01g15ABg1B0Bg335g4EBgA39gC3Ag1960g7CEg19C3g14B5gDDCg1D8EgD49g5C0g527gBA0g195Dg1331gDAAgCEEg336 g1DB1g1353g13B8g146AgCB8g79Eg6A1g1464gB84gFE2g527g12