能源灵活性的数字化（英）-ENTEC.pdf

ENTEC Energy Transition Expertise Centre Revised Edition Digitalisation of Energy Flexibility Digitalisation of Energy Flexibility 2 Digitalisation of Energy Flexibility Consortium Leader Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Breslauer Strae 48, 76139 Karlsruhe, Germany Barbara Breitschopf, barbara.breitschopfisi.fraunhofer.de; Andrea Herbst, andrea.herbstisi.fraunhofer.de Consortium Partner Guidehouse, Stadsplateau 15, 3521 AZ, The Netherlands McKinsey Marian Klobasa, marian.klobasaisi.fraunhofer.de; Matthias Khnbach, matthias.kuehnbachisi.fraunhofer.de; Mahendra Singh, mahendra.singhisi.fraunhofer.de; Kaspar Knorr, kaspar.knorriee.fraunhofer.de; Jonathan Schtt, jonathan.schuettiee.fraunhofer.de; Jordy de Boer, jordy_de_boermckinsey.com; Diego Hernandez Diaz, diego_hernandez_diazmckinsey.com; Franziska Fitzschen, franziska_fitschenmckinsey.com; Andrs Garcern, andres_garceranmckinsey.com; Ricardo Reina, ricardo_reinamckinsey.com; Ole Rolser, ole_rolsermckinsey.com; Stefanie Stemmer, stefanie_stemmermckinsey.com; Jan Steinbach, j.steinbachirees.de; Eftim Popovski, e.popovskiirees.de Prepared for European Commission, DG ENER under contract N ENER/C2/2019-456/ SI2.840317 Revised Edition, published May 2022 With addendum of displaced Figures 3, 6 and 8 PDF ISBN 978-92-76-48885-9 doi 10.2833/113770 MJ-01-22-115-EN-N Disclaimer This report was created by the Energy Transition Expertise Center EnTEC, a think tank collaboration with DG ENER. The report draws on multiple sources, including the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Fraunhofer Institute for Energy Economics and Energy System Technology IEE, with analysis from McKinsey Company and with support from Institute of Resource Efficiency and Energy Strategies IREES. EnTEC are responsible to DG ENER for the conclusions and recommendations of the research. The information and views set out in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the Commission. The Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this study. Neither the Commission nor any person acting on the Commission’s behalf may be held responsible for the use which may be made of the information contained therein. European Union, 2022 Digitalisation of Energy Flexibility 3 Acronyms used in this report Abbreviation Description ADMS advanced distribution management system AMI advanced metering infrastructure aFRR automated frequency restoration reserves BEMS building energy management systems BEV battery electric vehicle BRP balancing responsible parties BSP balancing service provider CAPEX capital expenditures CD conventionally decarbonised CHP combined heat and power cVPPs community-based VPPs CPO charge-point operator DER distributed energy resources DHC district heating and cooling DERMS distributed energy resource management systems DG ENER Directorate-General Energy DSO distribution system operator DSR demand-side response EaaS energy-as-a-service EED energy efficiency directive EMS energy management systems EnC energy communities ENTSO-E European network of transmission system operators for electricity EPBD energy performance of buildings directive ESCO energy service company EV electric vehicle FCR frequency containment reserves FED final energy demand FFR firm frequency response GBP British pound sterling GHG greenhouse gas HEMS home energy management systems HVAC heating, ventilation and air conditioning ICT information and communications technology IEMD internal market for electricity directive IoT internet of things LT/MT low- and medium-temperature heat Digitalisation of Energy Flexibility 4 Abbreviation Description MARI platform Manually Activate Reserves Initiative MAS multi-agent systems mFRR manual frequency restoration reserves MWYE megawatt year n.d. no date nRMSE normalised root-mean-square error NWA non-wire alternatives OM operations and maintenance OEM original equipment manufacturers OMS outage management systems OPEX operating expenses PICASSO Platform for the International Coordination of Automated Frequency Restoration and Stable System Operation P2G peer-to-grid P2P peer-to-peer PV photovoltaic RED II renewable energy directive RES renewable energy source RR replacement reserve SCADA supervisory control and data acquisition SOGL System Operation Guideline TCOO total cost of ownership TERRE Trans European Replacement Reserves Exchange TSO transmission system operator V2G vehicle to grid VPP virtual power plant Digitalisation of Energy Flexibility 5 Content Acronyms used in this report . 3 Executive summary. 11 1 Introduction 16 2 Identification and selection of use cases and business cases . 18 2.1 Framework for initial business-case selection . 18 2.2 Impact assessment 27 2.2.1 Amount of flexibility provided to the energy system . 27 2.2.2 Near-term maturity by 2030 . 27 2.2.3 Facilitators . 27 2.3 Business case selection . 28 2.3.1 Maximum adjustable power 28 2.3.2 Total adjustable energy . 28 3 Business case Distributed energy resource management systems .33 3.1 Potential time frame for DERMS impact 34 3.2 Market overview for DERMS . 35 3.3 Stakeholder mapping for DERMS . 37 3.4 Innovation assessment of DERMS . 38 3.4.1 European innovation position of DERMS. 38 3.4.2 Spillover effects of DERMS . 38 3.5 Economic assessment of DERMS 39 3.5.1 DERMS Revenue . 40 3.5.2 Total cost of ownership for DERMS 40 3.6 Technical assessment of DERMS 42 3.7 Technical infrastructure required for DERMS . 42 3.8 DERMS risk considerations 42 4 Use case Virtual power plants . 44 4.1 Market overview for VPP 45 4.2 Stakeholder mapping for VPPs . 46 4.3 Innovation assessment of VPPs 46 4.3.1 European innovation position of VPPs 46 4.3.2 Spillover effects of VPPs 47 4.4 VPPs revenue . 47 4.5 Total cost of ownership for VPPs . 49 4.6 Technical infrastructure required for VPPs . 51 4.7 VPPs risk considerations . 52 Digitalisation of Energy Flexibility 6 4.8 Business case VPPs for spot markets . 53 4.8.1 Potential time frame for VPPs for spot markets impact 53 4.8.2 VPPs for spot markets revenue 54 4.8.3 Technical assessment of VPPs for spot markets . 55 4.9 Business case VPPS for balancing reserves 55 4.9.1 Potential time frame for VPPs for balancing reserves impact . 55 4.9.2 VPPs for balancing reserves revenue . 56 4.9.3 Technical assessment of VPPs for balancing reserves 58 4.10 Business case VPPs for internal balancing 58 4.10.1 Potential time frame for VPPs for internal balancing impact 58 4.10.2 Economic value of VPP internal balancing 59 4.10.3 Technical assessment of VPPs for internal balancing . 60 5 Business case Energy sharing communities and peer-to-peer trading . 61 5.1 Potential time frame for energy sharing communities and peer-to-peer trading impact 62 5.2 Market overview for energy sharing communities and peer-to-peer trading . 63 5.3 Stakeholder mapping for energy sharing communities and peer-to-peer trading 65 5.4 Innovation assessment of energy sharing communities and peer-to-peer trading . 66 5.4.1 European innovation position of energy sharing communities and peer-to-peer trading 66 5.4.2 Spillover effects of energy sharing communities and peer-to-peer trading 67 5.5 Economic assessment of energy sharing communities and peer-to-peer trading 67 5.6 Energy sharing communities and peer-to-peer trading revenue 69 5.7 Total cost of ownership for energy sharing communities and peer-to-peer trading . 72 5.8 Technical assessment of energy sharing communities and peer-to-peer trading 74 5.9 Technical infrastructure required for energy sharing communities and peer-to-peer trading . 74 5.10 Energy sharing communities and peer-to-peer trading risk considerations . 75 6 Business case District heating and cooling . 77 6.1 Potential time frame for district heating and cooling impact . 77 6.2 Market overview for district heating and cooling 79 6.3 Stakeholder mapping for district heating and cooling 80 6.4 Innovation assessment of district heating and cooling 81 6.4.1 European innovation position of district heating and cooling . 81 6.4.2 Spillover effects of district heating and cooling . 82 6.5 Economic assessment of district heating and cooling . 82 6.5.1 District heating and cooling revenue 84 6.5.2 Total cost of ownership for district heating and cooling 85 6.6 Technical assessment for district heating and cooling 87 6.7 Technical infrastructure required for district heating and cooling . 88 6.8 District heating and cooling risk considerations 88 Digitalisation of Energy Flexibility 7 7 Building energy management systems .90 7.1 Potential time frame for BEMS impact . 92 7.2 Market overview for BEMS 92 7.3 Stakeholder mapping for BEMS . 94 7.4 Innovation assessment of BEMS. 95 7.4.1 European innovative position of BEMS . 95 7.4.2 Spillover effects of BEMS 96 7.5 Economic assessment of BEMS . 96 7.5.1 BEMS revenue 98 7.5.2 Total cost of ownership for BEMS . 99 7.6 Technical assessment of BEMS 100 7.7 Technical infrastructure required for BEMS . 101 7.8 BEMS risk considerations 101 8 Business case Industrial hybrid heating . 103 8.1 Potential time frame for industrial hybrid heating impact 103 8.2 Market overview for industrial hybrid heating 104 8.3 Stakeholder mapping for industrial hybrid heating . 106 8.4 Innovation assessment of industrial hybrid heating 107 8.4.1 European innovation position of industrial hybrid heating 107 8.4.2 Spillover effects of industrial hybrid heating . 108 8.5 Economic assessment of industrial hybrid heating 108 8.5.1 Industrial hybrid heating revenue 109 8.5.2 Total cost of ownership for industrial hybrid heating . 111 8.6 Technical assessment of industrial hybrid heating. 112 8.7 Technical infrastructure required for industrial hybrid heating 113 8.8 Industrial hybrid heating risk considerations 113 9 Business case Residential heat pumps . 115 9.1 Potential time frame for residential heat pumps impact 116 9.2 Market overview for residential heat pumps 117 9.3 Stakeholder mapping for residential heat pumps 119 9.4 Innovation assessment of residential heat pumps . 119 9.4.1 European innovation position of residential heat pumps 119 9.4.2 Spillover effects of residential heat pumps 120 9.5 Economic assessment of residential heat pumps . 120 9.5.1 Residential heat pump revenue 122 9.5.2 Total cost of ownership for residential heat pumps . 123 9.6 Technical assessment of residential heat pumps 124 9.7 Technical infrastructure required for residential heat pumps . 125 9.8 Residential heat pump risk considerations . 125 Digitalisation of Energy Flexibility 8 10 Business case management systems 127 10.1 Potential time frame for HEMS impact 127 10.2 Market overview for HEMS . 128 10.3 Stakeholder mapping for HEMS 129 10.4 Innovation assessment of HEMS . 130 10.4.1 European innovation position of HEMS 131 10.4.2 Spillover effects of HEMS . 132 10.5 Economic assessment of HEMS . 132 10.5.1 HEMS revenue 133 10.5.2 Total cost of ownership for HEMS . 134 10.5.3 Technical assessment of HEMS . 135 10.5.4 Technical infrastructure required for HEMS . 135 10.6 HEMS risk considerations 136 11 Use case Electric vehicle smart charging . 137 11.1 Market Overview for EV smart charging . 137 11.2 Stakeholder mapping for EV smart charging . 138 11.3 Innovation assessment of EV smart charging 139 11.3.1 European innovation position . 140 11.3.2 Spillover effects of EV smart charging . 140 11.4 Technical assessment of EV smart charging . 141 11.5 Technical infrastructure required for EV smart charging 142 11.6 EV smart charging risk considerations . 143 11.7 Business case Price-responsive charging . 143 11.7.1 Potential time frame for price-responsive charging impact . 144 11.7.2 Economic assessment of price-responsive charging . 145 11.7.3 Total cost of ownership for EV smart charging 148 11.8 Business case Self-consumption optimisation using EVs 148 11.8.1 Potential time frame for self-consumption optimisation using EVs impact 148 11.8.2 Economic assessment of self-consumption optimisation using EVs. 150 11.8.3 Total cost of ownership for EV smart charging 153 12 Use case Vehicle to grid . 154 12.1 Market overview for V2G 154 12.2 Stakeholder mapping for V2G . 155 12.3 Innovation assessment for V2G . 156 12.3.1 European innovation position . 156 12.3.2 Spillover effects 157 12.4 Technical assessment of V2G . 157 12.5 Technical infrastructure required for V2G 158 12.6 Risk considerations for V2G . 158 Digitalisation of Energy Flexibility 9 12.7 Business case Price-responsive bidirectional charging 159 12.7.1 Potential time frame 159 12.7.2 Economic assessment 161 12.7.3 Total cost of ownership 164 12.8 Business case Congestion management and ancillary services using V2G . 165 12.8.1 Potential time frame 166 12.8.2 Economic assessment 166 12.8.3 Total cost of ownership 169 13 Analysis of business cases . 171 13.1 Overview of business cases171 13.1.1 Projected demand. 171 13.1.2 Impact at scale 173 13.1.3 Properties . 174 13.1.4 Competition . 175 13.2 Digital solutions applied A scenario for 2050 . 176 13.2.1 Possible composition of power-flexibility system . 177 14 What it will take to get there . 180 15 Data-sharing frameworks . 181 15.1 Framework initiatives . 182 15.1.1 Data Sharing Coalition 182 15.1.2 EU common data spaces 183 15.1.3 Gaia-X . 183 15.1.4 International Data Spaces 183 15.2 Data-sharing pilots . 183 15.3 Data-sharing platforms in the energy sector . 184 15.4 Digital maturity of use cases from the perspective of data-sharing frameworks 184 15.4.1 Strategic requirements of the IDS framework 184 15.4.2 Evaluation of use cases with respect to data-sharing requirements . 185 15.5 Bottlenecks 186 16 Regulations and enabling framework . 187 16.1 Requirements, gaps and enablers . 187 16.1.1 Distributed energy resource management systems . 187 16.1.2 Virtual power plants . 188 16.1.3 Energy sharing and peer-to-peer trading . 192 16.1.4 District heating and cooling . 197 16.1.5 Building energy management systems 199 16.1.6 Industrial hybrid heating 200 16.1.7 Home energy management systems and residential heat pumps 201 Digitalisation of Energy Flexibility 10 16.1.8 Smart charging and vehicle to grid . 203 16.2 Analysis of key EU documents 204 16.2.1 The IEMD 205 16.2.2 RED II 206 16.2.3 Regulation EU 2019/943 on the internal market for electricity 206 16.2.4 The EED 207 16.2.5 The European Green Deal, Fit for 55 and proposal to amend RED II 207 16.3 Analysis of data-sharing frameworks 208 16.4 Policy conclusions . 214 16.4.1 Recommendations on flexibility use cases . 214 16.4.2 The overall significance of flexibility . 217 17 International and intersectoral experiences 219 17.1 Fast-paced policy implementation 220 17.2 Policy design with new technology and digital business models in mind 220 17.3 Cross-government coordination and support . 221 17.4 International cooperation . 221 List of Figures . 222 List of Tabl