英文【中信证券】碳中和系列报告三：政策驱动的建筑节能和BIPV的增长潜力

This is a translation of the Chinese-language report Securities research report Please read the disclaimer at the end of the report Policy-driven growth potential of building energy efficiency and BIPV Carbon Neutrality Series Report No. 3｜ Mar 17, 2022 CITICS Research Core views SUN Mingxin Chief Basic Materials the Code refines requirements for energy-saving buildings. The 14th FYP for building energy conservation and green building development comes in the context of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals and people’s increasing demand for a better living environment. We can summarize the key tasks proposed by the Plan into four aspects the direction of building development building high-quality green buildings, improving building energy efficiency, promoting ultra-low-energy buildings or ULEB, nearly-zero-energy buildings or NZEB, etc., building energy application promoting the application of solar-powered buildings, etc., building construction methods developing prefabricated buildings and prefabricated decoration, etc., the use of building materials promoting the penetration and application of green building materials, etc.. In general, measures such as improving the level of building energy conservation and adopting BIPV systems have become an important starting point for promoting the high-quality development of green buildings. The mandatory national standard defined by the Code can serve as the “constitution“ that must be followed in the engineering construction of building energy conservation-related projects. Basic Materials the new orders of listed companies miss expectations; the backlog orders of listed companies fall short of expectations; the recovery of real estate and infrastructure demand falls below expectations. ▍ Investment strategy Judging from the Plan and the Code, the two guideline documents have been issued one after another in the context of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals and people’s increasing demand for a better living environment, which means that the policy system for building energy efficiency is gradually improving and the governments emphasis on building energy conservation has increased significantly, thus putting the high-quality and green development of building materials on the fast track. As an important starting point of building energy conservation policies, building energy Basic Materials the “Code” refines requirements for energy-saving buildings . 1 Policy highlight 1 “14th FYP for Building Energy Conservation and Green Building Development” . 1 Policy highlight 2 National standard “General Code for Building Energy Conservation and Renewable Energy Utilization” 6 These two documents will boost the quality requirements and demand for building insulation, building shading and BIPV . 8 The influence of these two documents on the demand of building insulation 8 The influence of these two documents on the demand for building shading . 10 Influence of these two documents on the demand for BIPV 12 Potential risks . 14 Investment recommendation . 14 Figures Fig. 1 Schematic diagram for building outer wall insulation 9 Fig. 2 Higher energy-saving standards boost demand for insulation materials 9 Tables Table 1 Classification and summary of key tasks in the “14th FYP for Building Energy Conservation and Green Building Development” . 2 Table 2 Nine key tasks in the “14th FYP for Building Energy Conservation and Green Building Development” as well as details of the column tasks therein . 3 Table 3 Specific indicators of building energy efficiency and green building development during the 14th FYP and 13th FYP periods 6 Table 4 Overall energy efficiency-related provisions of “General Code for Building Energy Conservation and Renewable Energy Utilization” 7 Table 5 Main requirements put forward by the “General Code for Building Energy Conservation and Renewable Energy Utilization” 7 Table 6 Relevant statements in the “Plan” and the “Code” on building energy efficiency and insulation 9 Table 7 Relevant statements in the “Plan” and the “Code” on building shading . 10 Table 8 Estimates for the increment of roof distributed PV installed capacity . 12 Table 9 Relevant statements in the “Plan” and the “Code” on BIPV . 13 Table 10 Earnings forecast, valuation, and investment rating for key companies 15 Basic Materials the “Code” refines requirements for energy-saving buildings Policy highlight 1 “14th FYP for Building Energy Conservation and Green Building Development” On Mar 11, 2022, the MOHURD issued the “14th FYP for Building Energy Conservation and Green Building Development” hereinafter referred to as the “Plan”. It is a guidance document to guide how to improve the building energy efficiency level and promote the development of green buildings, thus laying a foundation for carbon peak in urban and rural construction in 2030 and creating new impetus for meeting the people’s demand for a beautiful living environment. Basic Materials improving building safety, health, livability, convenience and economy. A key item in the “Plan”, energy conservation performance requires improving the energy efficiency of incremental and existing buildings, as well as promoting ULEBs and NZEBs. 2 Building energy application Promoting the application of solar energy buildings; strengthening the utilization of renewable energy such as geothermal energy; implementing building electrification project building energy consumption system with electricity consumption as the core; and advancing regional building energy coordination. 3 Building construction methods Promoting new-type green construction methods, including vigorously developing steel structure buildings, actively promoting prefabricated concrete buildings, developing wood structure buildings according to local conditions, and actively developing prefabricated decoration. 4 Use of building materials Promoting the penetration and application of green building materials; increasing R promoting high-strength rebars, high-performance concrete, high-performance masonry materials, structural insulation integrated wallboard, etc.; as well as encouraging the development of high-performance prefabricated components and parts. The “column” tasks include the projects for promoting ULEBs, the energy-saving renovation of existing residential buildings, the construction of key cities to improve the energy efficiency of public buildings, the BIPV campaign, and the development of “13” standardized design and production system of prefabricated construction methods. Building energy efficiency, BIPV, prefabricated buildings, green building materials and other fields have become important starting points to promote the improvement of building energy efficiency level and the high-quality development of green buildings. Table 1 Classification and summary of key tasks in the “14th FYP for Building Energy Conservation and Green Building Development” Working direction Content summary Building development direction Building high-quality green buildings; improving building safety, health, livability, convenience and economy. By 2025, all incremental urban buildings will be built into green buildings. Improving the energy efficiency of incremental and existing buildings, as well as promoting ULEBs and NZEBs. Building energy application Promoting the application of solar energy buildings; strengthening the utilization of renewable energy such as geothermal energy; implementing building electrification project building energy consumption system with electricity consumption as the core; and advancing regional building energy coordination. Building construction methods Promoting new-type green construction methods, including vigorously developing steel structure buildings, actively promoting prefabricated concrete buildings, developing wood structure buildings according to local conditions, and actively developing prefabricated decoration. Use of building materials Increasing R promoting high-strength rebars, high-performance concrete, high-performance masonry materials, structural insulation integrated wallboard, etc.; as well as encouraging the development of high-performance prefabricated components and parts. Source Official website of MOHURD, CITICS Research Basic Materials encouraging the government to invest in public welfare buildings, large public buildings and incremental buildings in key functional areas to implement the standards of ULEBs and NZEBs. By 2025, more than 50mn sqm of ULEB and NZEB demonstration projects will be built. Project for popularizing high-performance doors and windows. Based on the present situation and development direction of China’s door and window technologies to put forward the targets for improving energy conservation performance of doors and windows in different climatic regions, as well as to promote the use of high-performance doors and windows. Addition of shading facilities according to local conditions to improve the safety, applicability and durability of shading facilities. III Strengthening the energy-saving renovation of existing buildings Column 5 Key projects for energy-saving renovation of existing buildings Energy-saving renovation of existing residential buildings. Implementing the requirements of clean heating in Northern China; adapting to the new heating demand in regions with hot summers and cold winters; continuously promoting building energy efficiency improvement and transformation; actively promoting energy-saving renovation of rural houses; and popularizing applicable and economic transformation technologies; carrying out energy conservation and low-carbon transformation of buildings in combination with the transformation of old residential areas, as well as alongside with the improvement of public environment in residential areas, the installation of elevators for multi-storey buildings and the transformation of municipal infrastructure in residential areas. China aims to complete the energy-saving renovation for 100mn sqm of existing residential buildings nationwide by 2025. Improving public building energy efficiency in key cities. Doing a good job in the performance evaluation and experience summary of the first batch of key cities for improving the energy efficiency of public buildings; starting the implementation of the second batch of key cities for improving the energy efficiency of public buildings; establishing an energy conservation and low-carbon technology system; exploring diversified financing support policies and financing models; as well as promoting market mechanisms such as contract energy management and demand side management of electricity consumption. During the 14th FYP period, energy-saving renovation for more than 250mn sqm of existing public buildings will be completed. IV Promoting the application of renewable energy sources Column 6 Key projects for application of renewable energy sources BIPV campaign. Actively promoting the distributed and integrated application of solar PV in urban and rural buildings and municipal public facilities; and encouraging the synchronous design and construction of solar PV system and buildings; encouraging PV manufacturers, investment and operation enterprises, power generation enterprises and building property owners to strengthen cooperation and explore business models of PV applications such as roof leasing and market-oriented trading in distributed power generation. During the 14th FYP period, a total of 50mn kilowatts of BIPV installed capacity will be added, and the policy system, standard system and technical system of solar PV building application will be gradually improved. Basic Materials leading design units to implement standardized forward design; focusing on how to use standardized components for integrated design; guiding production units to carry out standardized batch production; gradually reducing production costs and promoting sustainable development of new-type building industrialization. VII Promoting the penetration and application of green building materials - - VIII Promoting synergy of regional buildings and energy sources Column 9 Key projects for synergy of regional buildings and energy sources Pilot project of virtual power plants in region buildings. Taking urban new areas, functional parks, campus parks and other parks and public buildings as the objects to makes accurate statistics, monitoring and analysis of their building energy consumption data; using technologies e.g., intelligent group control of building electrical equipment to pack adjustable and controllable electrical loads on the premise of meeting users’ electricity demand, thus forming regional building virtual power plants, participating in electricity demand response and market-oriented trading of electricity as a whole, improving building electricity efficiency and reducing electricity cost. IX Promoting the construction of green cities - - Source Official website of MOHURD, CITICS Research The “Plan” puts forward the overall target and specific targets during the 14th FYP period. Overall target during the 14th FYP period By 2025, all incremental buildings in cities and towns will be built into green buildings in 2020, the proportion of incremental green buildings in cities and towns across China was be 77 of the incremental floor space in that year, the building energy utilization efficiency will be steadily improved, the building energy structure will be gradually optimized, and the growth trend of building energy consumption and carbon emissions will be effectively controlled, so as to basically form a green, low-carbon and circular construction and development mode, which will lay a solid foundation for peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 in the field of urban and rural construction. Basic Materials 2 In the part of guarantee measures, it mentions “doing a good job in the implementation of the ‘General Code for Building Energy Conservation and Renewable Energy Utilization’ and other standards”. It can be seen that the detailed requirements and enforceability of the “Code” provide the basis and guarantee for the implementation of the “Plan”. The “Code” first puts forward the energy consumption requirements that incremental buildings should meet. The average energy consumption level of incremental residential buildings and public buildings decreased by 30 and 20 respectively on the basis of various energy conservation design standards implemented in 2016, which are consistent with the targets set in the “Plan”; carbon emission intensity decreased by 40 on the basis of various energy conservation design standards implemented in 2016. In terms of energy conservation rate requirements, the average energy conservation rate of residential buildings in severe cold and cold regions should Basic Materials heat transfer, air tightness, window-wall area ratio of oute