2020年全球能源报告：新冠疫情对需求和碳排放的冲击-2020.6-56页

Global Energy Review 2020 The impacts of the Covid-19 crisis on global energy demand and CO2 emissions Global Energy Review 2020 The impacts of the Covid-19 crisis on global energy demand and CO 2 emissions The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its null member countries, nullassociation countries and beyond. Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t cheap gas and continued growth in renewables elsewhere challenged coal; and mild weather also capped coal use.  Oil demand was also hit strongly, down nearly 5 in the first quarter, mostly by curtailment in mobility and aviation, which account for nearly 60 of global oil demand. By the end of March, global road transport activity was almost 50 below the 2019 average and aviation 60 below.  The impact of the pandemic on gas demand was more moderate, at around 2, as gas-based economies were not strongly affected in the first quarter of 2020.  Renewables were the only source that posted a growth in demand, driven by larger installed capacity and priority dispatch.  Electricity demand has been significantly reduced as a result of lockdown measures, with knock-on effects on the power mix. Electricity demand has been depressed by 20 or more during periods of full lockdown in several countries, as upticks for residential demand are far outweighed by reductions in commercial and industrial operations. For weeks, the shape of demand resembled that of a prolonged Sunday. Demand reductions have lifted the share of renewables in the Global Energy Review 2020 Key findings The impacts of the Covid-19 crisis on global energy demand and CO2 emissions Page | 4 IE A . A l l ri g h t s re s e rv e d . electricity supply, as their output is largely unaffected by demand. Demand fell for all other sources of electricity, including coal, gas and nuclear power.  Looking at the full year, we explore a scenario that quantifies the energy impacts of a widespread global recession caused by months-long restrictions on mobility and social and economic activity. Within this scenario, the recovery from the depths of the lockdown recession is only gradual and is accompanied by a substantial permanent loss in economic activity, despite macroeconomic policy efforts.  The result of such a scenario is that energy demand contracts by 6, the largest in 70 years in percentage terms and the largest ever in absolute terms. The impact of Covid-19 on energy demand in 2020 would be more than seven times larger than the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on global energy demand.  All fuels will be affected  Oil demand could drop by 9, or 9 mb/d on average across the year, returning oil consumption to 2012 levels.  Coal demand could decline by 8, in large part because electricity demand will be nearly 5 lower over the course of the year. The recovery of coal demand for industry and electricity generation in China could offset larger declines elsewhere.  Gas demand could fall much further across the full year than in the first quarter, with reduced demand in power and industry applications.  Nuclear power demand would also fall in response to lower electricity demand.  Renewables demand is expected to increase because of low operating costs and preferential access to many power systems. Recent growth in capacity, some new projects coming online in 2020, would also boost output.  In our estimate for 2020, global electricity demand falls by 5, with 10 reductions in some regions. Low-carbon sources would far outstrip coal-fired generation globally, extending the lead established in 2019.  Global CO2 emissions are expected to decline by 8, or almost 2.6 gigatonnes Gt, to levels of 10 years ago. Such a year-on-year reduction would be the largest ever, six times larger than the previous record reduction of 0.4 Gt in 2009 – caused by the global financial crisis – and twice as large as the combined total of all previous reductions since the end of World War II. As after previous crises, however, the rebound in emissions may be larger than the decline, unless the wave of investment to restart the economy is dedicated to cleaner and more resilient energy infrastructure. Global Energy Review 2020 The context A world in lockdown The impacts of the Covid 19 crisis on global energy demand and CO2 emissions Page | 5 IE A . A l l ri g h t s re s e rv e d . The context A world in lockdown The coronavirus pandemic has triggered a macroeconomic shock that is unprecedented in peacetime. As of the 28 th of April, the World Health Organization reported 3 million confirmed cases and over 200 000 deaths 1 due to the illness, affecting almost 200 countries and territories. A peak in the number of cases has been observed in only a handful of countries so far. To slow the spread of the virus, governments across the world have imposed restrictions on most social and economic activities. These include partial or complete lockdowns, daytime curfews, closure of educational institutions and non-essential businesses, and bans on public gatherings. About 4.2 billion people or 54 of the global population, representing almost 60 of global GDP, were subject to complete or partial lockdowns as of the 28th of April and nearly all the global population is affected by some form of containment measures. The crisis has unfolded gradually since December 2019. The People’s Republic of China hereafter, “China”, the country first affected by the virus – and alone representing 16 of global GDP and 24 of energy demand in 2019 – implemented lockdown measures with strong macroeconomic impacts in late January. These were followed by lockdowns in many European countries and India in March, with populations accounting for one-third of global energy demand coming under lockdown. As an increasing number of states in the United States imposed restrictions, a population that represents 53 of global primary energy consumption in 2019 was living in complete or partial lockdown in early April. By this time, China started to lift restrictions and restart factories, but social distancing measures remain in place, hindering the recovery of the service sector. While the total number of registered cases is lower in Africa than in the worst-hit regions of the world, the continent has yet to feel the full implications of the crisis. Almost 50 African countries are affected, the number of cases is still expanding and containment measures are increasing. Worldwide, between mid-March and end-April the share of energy use under full or partial lockdown skyrocketed from 5 to 52. 1 https//covid19.who.int/, accessed on April 27, 2020. Global Energy Review 2020 The context A world in lockdown The impacts of the Covid 19 crisis on global energy demand and CO2 emissions Page | 6 IE A . A l l ri g h t s re s e rv e d . Share of global population under containment measures IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Share of global primary energy demand affected by mandatory lockdowns IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Source IEA analysis based on Oxford Covid 19 Government Response Tracker, UNESCO Covid 19 Educational Disruption Database, UN 2019 Revision of World Population Prospects and coronavirusmeasures.herokuapp.com, last accessed on April 27. These restrictions represent a challenging combination of a supply and a demand shock. The supply shock arises from the intentional constraints on economic activity restaurants, shopping malls and, in some countries, factories are closed down to prevent the spread of the virus. To a small extent, this decline is compensated by greater e-business activity as well as some other sectors of the economy, most notably a rise in the sales of medical equipment. On the whole, however, the restrictions substantially constrain the overall supply-side capacity. 20 40 60 80 100 11-01-2020 01-02-2020 22-02-2020 14-03-2020 04-04-2020 25-04-2020 Full lockdown Partial lockdown Non-essential businesses closed Schools and universities closed Ban on public gatherings 10 20 30 40 50 60 11-01-2020 01-02-2020 22-02-2020 14-03-2020 04-04-2020 25-04-2020 Full lockdown Partial lockdown Global Energy Review 2020 The context A world in lockdown The impacts of the Covid 19 crisis on global energy demand and CO2 emissions Page | 7 IE A . A l l ri g h t s re s e rv e d . The demand-side shock arises from the impact on consumers’ disposable income and corporate investment activity. The exact extent of employment loss is determined by country-specific labour market institutions, but in every country lockdowns have been accompanied by a historically unprecedented spike in unemployment. In the United States, initial unemployment claims have been recorded at more than 26 million 2 since the start of the lockdown, indicating that the rate of employment loss is around 10 times faster than it was in the aftermath of the fall of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Similarly in the United Kingdom, 1.4 million 3 new claims for unemployment benefits have been registered since mid-March when the government first urged people to stay home. Early studies suggest that unemployment could rise to almost 21 4 of the total workforce, higher than the ratio recorded during the Great Depression of the 1930s. Registered unemployment numbers might even understate the impact, given the importance of informal and “gig economy” employment in the exceptionally badly hit tourism sector. Those who have lost their jobs are concentrated in the lower income segments. Even with unemployment support, they are likely to cut their spending beyond what the restrictions would mandate. Similarly, given the uncertainties of consumer demand, companies hold back investment projects even if social distancing measures would still allow the investment. The importance of the demand-side aspect is especially visible in China. Due to the different timing of the epidemic, the Chinese manufacturing sector is aiming to restart precisely when European and North American demand for Chinese products is sharply falling, creating an additional macroeconomic challenge. Overall, estimates suggest that during the lockdown phase economies can expect a 20 to 40 decline in economic output, depending on the share of the most affected sectors and the stringency of measures. At the global level, this translates into a 2 drop in expected annual GDP for each month of containment measures, confirming the 2-3 order of magnitude put forward by the President of the European Central Bank in early April. 2 https//www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/business/economy/unemployment-claims-coronavirus.html, accessed on April 23, 2020. 3 https//www.ft.com/content/e1fcc6cd-ef44-4788-807d-ca534f61c1c1, accessed on April 20, 2020. 4 https//www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/03/coronavirus-uk-business-activity-plunges-to-lowest-ebb-since-records- began, accessed April 20, 2020. Global Energy Review 2020 The context A world in lockdown The impacts of the Covid 19 crisis on global energy demand and CO2 emissions Page | 8 IE A . A l l ri g h t s re s e rv e d . Impact of each month of containment measures on expected annual GDP by sector in selected regions IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Sources IEA analysis based on ADB Asian Development Outlook 2020 April 2020, CEBR March 2020, Dorn, F. et al. March 2020, INSEE April 2020, ISTAT April 2020, OECD March 2020. The direct impact on annual GDP and on energy use therefore depends on the duration of lockdowns, while the indirect impact of the crisis will be determined by the shape of the recovery. In an ideal case, some economic activity affected by the lockdown will only be delayed, like making necessary repairs on a house, leading to a sharp, V-shaped recovery. In some sectors like tourism, however, the crisis might have a long-term impact. Activities may not even return to the pre-crisis growth path, let alone make up lost ground. The shape of the recovery will be affected by healthcare factors, like a possible second wave of the pandemic. It will also be greatly influenced by the size and design of macroeconomic policy responses. After the lockdown phase, the challenge will be closer to a “conventional recession” with depressed aggregate demand and potential stress on the financial system. Experience suggests that the depth and duration of a recession can be significantly reduced by anticyclical policy to stimulate demand and measures that prevent spillover effects from triggering a systemic financial crisis. Governments around the world are responding with an unprecedented wave of fiscal and monetary stimuli. The current focus is to provide direct income support both to affected workers and to companies in order to minimise social and employment impacts. At the same time, stabilising the financial system is a priority. - 5- 3- 1 World China India Australia Canada Korea United States Spain United Kingdom Germany France Italy Agriculture, mining and quarrying Business, trade and public services Hotel, restaurants and other services Manufacturing, utilities and construction Transport services Overall GDP Global Energy Review 2020 The context A world in lockdown The impacts of the Covid 19 crisis on global energy demand and CO2 emissions Page | 9 IE A . A l l ri g h t s re s e rv e d . Despite the scope and ambition of the policy response, it appears likely that the recovery will only be gradual. As a result, even if lockdown periods are limited, 2020 will be the year of deepest post-war recession, markedly exceeding the 2008 financial crisis. Even in 2021, global economic activity might well be below the 2019 level. Global annual change in real gross domestic product GDP, 1900-2020 IEA 2020. All rights reserved. Sources IEA based on IMF World Economic Outlook January and April 2020, OECD Interim Economic Outlook Forecasts March 2020 and Maddison Project Database 2018. As this report describes in detail, the impact of this decline in economic activity on energy use is highly asymmetrical and depends on the specific energy use pattern. Traditional relationships between incomes and energy demand have broken due to the nature of the shock. Some energy uses, like residential gas heating or electricity use for server farms and digital equipment, are unaffected or even more pronounced. Others, most notably aviation jet fuel, have collapsed far more steeply than the decline of GDP. This analysis consequently takes a bottom-up, fine-grained approach in assessing the short-term energy impacts. What might the r