World Energy Transitions Outlook 2021(全球能源转型2021 可再生能源署）

WORLD ENERGY TRANSITIONS OUTLOOK 1.5 C PATHWAY2 WORLD ENERGY TRANSITIONS OUTLOOK 2 WORLD ENERGY TRANSITIONS OUTLOOK ABOUT IRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA serves as the principal platform for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge, and a driver of action on the ground to advance the transformation of the global energy system. A global intergovernmental organisation established in 2011, IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security, and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. www.irena.org IRENA 2021 Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given of IRENA as the source and copyright holder. Material in this publication that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions, and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material. ISBN 978-92-9260-334-2 CITATION IRENA 2021, World Energy Transitions Outlook 1.5C Pathway, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Available for download www.irena.org/publications For further information or to provide feedback infoirena.org DISCLAIMER This publication and the material herein are provided “as is”. All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify the reliability of the material in this publication. However, neither IRENA nor any of its officials, agents, data or other third-party content providers provides a warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use of the publication or material herein. The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of all Members of IRENA. The mention of specific companies or certain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The designations employed, and the presentation of material herein, do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries.WORLD ENERGY TRANSITIONS OUTLOOK 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This publication was prepared by IRENA’s Renewable Energy Roadmap REmap, Policy, Finance and Socio-economics teams. The 1.5C Scenario including a technology pathway and investment needs, was developed by Dolf Gielen, Ricardo Gorini, Rodrigo Leme and Gayathri Prakash, with significant support and contributions from Nicholas Wagner, Luis Janeiro, Maisarah Abdul Kadir, Sean Collins and Elisa Asmelash. The finance, policy and socio-economic analyses were developed by Rabia Ferroukhi, Diala Hawila, Divyam Nagpal, Costanza Strinati, Ulrike Lehr, and Xavier Garcia Casals. This publication benefited from insights and contributions by Elizabeth Press who also developed the Executive Summary. Valuable input, support and comments were provided by IRENA experts Paul Durrant, Seungwoo Kang, Karan Kochhar, Martina Lyons, Trish Mkutchwa, Carlos Ruiz end-use and bioenergy, Emanuele Taibi, Herib Blanco , Raul Miranda, Carlos Fernandez power system transformation and hydrogen, Francisco Boshell, Arina Anise, Elena Ocenic innovation and technology standards, Roland Roesch, Gabriel Castellanos, Gayathri Nair, Barbara Jinks grid integration, greening the gas and shipping, Asami Miketa, Pablo Carvajal power sector investment planning, Michael Taylor renewable energy cost status and outlook, Simon Benmarraze, Paula Nardone, Josefine Axelsson Renewable Energy Markets and Technology, Sandra Lozo and Kingsmill Bond renewable energy finance, Emanuele Bianco hydrogen policy, Sara Pizzinato power sector restructuring, Jinlei Feng end-use policy, Stephanie Weckend and Kelly Tai community energy and circular economy, Sufyan Diab targets and NDCs, Michael Renner, Celia Garca-Baos and Bishal Parajuli labour markets and socio-economics, Samah Elsayed education and skills, Anastasia Kefalidou, Kathleen Daniel, Claire Kiss and Waiman Tsang planning and programme. Modelling of the funding structure of the energy transition was developed with the support of the Boston Consulting Group BCG. Macro-econometric modelling E3ME results benefited from the support of Cambridge Econometrics CE. IRENA appreciates the insights and comments provided by Michael Hackethal, Ann-Katrin Siekemeier and Linus Herzig from the German Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology BMWi, Ruud Kempener, European Commission Directorate General for Energy ENER and Deger Saygin consultant. Valuable support and inputs were also provided by Laura Secada Daly. The publication, communications and editorial support were provided by Stephanie Clarke, Daria Gazzola, Nicole Bockstaller, Manuela Stefanides and Abdullah Abou Ali. The report was copy-edited by Steven B. Kennedy. The graphic design was done by weeks.de Werbeagentur GmbH. IRENA is grateful for the generous support of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy of Germany, which made the publication of this document a reality.4 WORLD ENERGY TRANSITIONS OUTLOOK We have no time. The window is closing and the pathway to a net zero future is narrowing. This was the message I delivered plainly and unambiguously when we released the World Energy Transitions Outlook preview at the Berlin Energy Transitions Dialogue earlier this year. Science is clear 45 of global greenhouse gas emissions from 2010 levels must be reduced by 2030. Unfortunately, the recent trends show that the gap between where we are and where we should be is widening. We are on the wrong path, and we need to change the course now. The choices we make in the coming years will have a far-reaching impact. They could bring us on a path toward the goals we set out in 2015 when we adopted the highly consequential international agreements on sustainable development and climate change. Or they could take us in the opposite direction to further warming, with profound and irreversible economic and humanitarian consequences. It is unwise to make predictions or pre-empt outcomes at uncertain times. But several trends are shaping an unfolding energy transition and giving an indication of its direction. First, the costs of renewable technologies have plummeted to the point that new fossil-based electricity is no longer an attractive option. Second, the progress in the power sector is spilling over to end uses, allowing a re-imagining of possibilities with the abundance of renewable options at hand. Third, a consensus has formed that an energy transition grounded in renewable sources of energy and efficient technologies is the only way to give us a fighting chance of limiting global warming by 2050 to 1.5C. Only a few years ago, the renewables-centred approach espoused by IRENA was considered too progressive, idealistic or even unrealistic. Today, our vision has become mainstream, and accepted as the only realistic option for a climate-safe world. And this is reflected in the growing number of commitments to net zero strategies by countries in all corners of the world, creating unprecedented political momentum for a transformative change. IRENA’s World Energy Transitions Outlook outlines the avenues to take us out of the climate crisis toward a resilient and more equitable world. It clearly shows the options we have today and what gaps need to be filled. The analysis and options presented prioritise existing emission-reduction solutions and those with the highest chance to become viable in the coming years. It does not bet on unproven technologies or pending inventions but encourages much-needed innovation to perfect and advance the fastest path to emission reduction. The Outlook offers a compelling path for decarbonising all energy uses, with electrification and energy efficiency as primary drivers, enabled by renewables, green hydrogen and sustainable modern bioenergy. But a scenario and its assumptions, however rigorous and comprehensive, are only an instrument to inform policy making. To translate this vision of the energy future into reality, we need to transcend the limits of the existing infrastructure created for the fuels of the past. And these decisions are not made in a vacuum. Economic and human development goals, environmental concerns, and financial avenues must all be reconciled. FOREWORD5 It is in this context that IRENA brings its unique value. The Outlook shows that, when we look beyond the narrow confines of energy supply, a renewables- based transition unlocks a range of valuable benefits. The Outlook thus presents the policy frameworks necessary to advance a transition that is just and inclusive. It provides an improved understanding of structural changes and offers a quantitative framework for impacts such as gross domestic product GDP, employment and welfare. The report also examines funding structures to show the necessary shift in capital markets. And this knowledge provides the basis for IRENA to support countries in realising their priorities and turning their strategies into action. With our 164 Members, we see how collective action can drive progress worldwide and where overarching needs and gaps may exist. This global reach is what gives the Agency the credibility - and privilege - to support international co-operation across the gamut of energy transition issues to help countries learn from each other and tap into the vast expertise of the Agency. And we are actively working with partners, including the private sector, to provide a dynamic platform that drives action, foresighted planning, holistic policy making and investment at scale. The demands of our time are great and full of uncertainty. We are entering a new era of change, one in which energy transformation will drive economic transformation. This change is bringing unprecedented new possibilities to revitalise economies and lift people out of poverty. But the task ahead is daunting. I hope that this Outlook provides a fresh view on how to turn today’s energy problems into tomorrow’s solutions. Our shared future will only be bright if we move together, taking everyone along towards a more resilient, equal, and just world. Francesco La Camera Director-General, IRENA6 WORLD ENERGY TRANSITIONS OUTLOOK TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgements .03 Foreword .04 E x e c ut i v e S u mm ar y 16 A Way Forward 250 References 252 ANNEX A Sector-specific transition strategies .260 References Annex A 295 ANNEX B Socio-economic footprint of the transition .297 LEVERAGING THE COMPETITIVENESS OF RENEWABLES TO HASTEN THE ENERGY TRANSITION AND MINIMISE CLIMATE CHANGE .38 1.1 Energy transition trends . 40 1.2 The evolving policy landscape 47 1.3 Renewable energy investments 48 1.4 Jobs 54 1.5 Outlook for achieving the 1.5C goal 57 1.6 Conclusion 61 TECHNOLOGICAL AVENUES TO CLIMATE TARGETS 64 2.1 C o nt e x t u a l i s i n g t h e 1.5C climate pathway .66 2.2 Achieving climate targets under the 1.5C Scenario 72 2.3 Comparison of energy scenarios 91 2.4 Conclusion 94 01 027 INVESTMENT NEEDS AND FINANCING FOR THE ENERGY TRANSITION 96 3.1 New investment priorities in the 1.5C Scenario 99 3.2 Funding structures for a climate safe 1.5C future 106 3.3 The impact of the energy transition on financing risks and capital pools 122 3.4 Conclusion . 127 COMPREHENSIVE POLICY FRAMEWORK FOR THE ENERGY TRANSITION . 128 4.1 Cross-cutting policies enabling the energy transition 133 4.2 Policies to support the technological avenues of the energy transition 149 4.3 Policies for structural change and a just transition .180 4.4 Holistic global policy framework 194 4.5 Conclusion . 197 SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION 198 5.1 The climate policy basket .201 5.2 Socio-economic footprint results .207 5.3 Conclusion .248 05 03 048 WORLD ENERGY TRANSITIONS OUTLOOK LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE S.1 Share of new electricity capacity, 2001-2020 . 18 FIGURE S.2 Global renewable energy employment, by technology, 2012-2019 . 19 FIGURE S.3 The WETO theory of change .22 FIGURE S.4 Carbon emissions abatements under the 1.5C Scenario 23 FIGURE S.5 Evolution of emissions with phaseouts of coal and oil, 2021-2050 .25 FIGURE S.6 Total average yearly investment by source and type of financing as of 2019, PES and 1.5C Scenario 2021-2030 and 2031-2050 .29 FIGURE S.7 Cumulative difference between costs and savings of 1.5C Scenario compared to the PES, 2021-2050 .30 FIGURE S.8 Energy sector jobs by technology under the PES and 1.5C Scenario million, global results 32 FIGURE S.9 Energy sector jobs, by segment of value chain, in the 1.5C Scenario and PES excluding vehicles .32 FIGURE S.10 Jobs in renewable energy, by technology, in the 1.5C Scenario and PES million .33 FIGURE S.11 Structure of jobs in the 1.5C Scenario by 2050 for a subset of renewable technologies by technology, segment of value chain and occupational requirements 33 FIGURE S.12 Structure of IRENAs Energy Transition Welfare Index 34 FIGURE S.13 Enabling policy framework for a just and inclusive energy transition .37 FIGURE 1.1 Global LCOE of newly commissioned utility-scale renewable power generation technologies, 2010 and 2020 . 41 FIGURE 1.2 Share of new electricity capacity, 2001-2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 FIGURE 1.3 New energy vs. old energy SP Global Clean Energy and Energy Indices, 24 May 2016 to 24 May 2021 44 FIGURE 1.4 Global investment in energy transition technologies, 2005-2020 46 FIGURE 1.5 Global annual renewable energy investments by technology, 2005-2019 .49 FIGURE 1.6 Global annual renewable energy investments by location, 2005-2019 50 FIGURE 1.7 Annual commitments to off-grid renewable energy by region, 2008-2019 51 FIGURE 1.8 Public annual renewable energy investments in emerging and developing countries by technology, 2005-2019 .53 FIGURE 1.9 Global renewable energy employment by technology, 2012-2019 55 FIGURE 1.10 Projected trends in global CO 2 emissions under three scenarios, 2020-2050 58 FIGURE 1.11 Primary supply of fossil fuels exajoules, 2018 to 2050, under the 1.5C Scenario 609 FIGURE 2.1 Carbon emissions abatements under the 1.5C Scenario 66 FIGURE 2.2 Renewable and non-renewable share of total primary energy supply in 2018 and 2050, PES and the 1.5C Scenario EJ/year 67 FIGURE 2.3 Energy intensity improvement rate and contributions, by category, historical and under the 1.5C Scenario, 2018–2050 .70 FIGURE 2.4 Breakdo