Global Market Outlook for Solar 2021-2025（全球光伏市场展望2021-2025）

Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2021 - 2025 Supported by 10 IEA 2020 World Energy Outlook 2020. CWF The mounting system of this solar field has been designed and manufactured by CWF With its unique composition and protective performance, Magnelis is the leading coated steel for solar mounting structures. For racks and purlins, Magnelis steel ZM310 offers an expected lifetime of more than 30 years in C3 environments. This performance has been certified by independent bodies. Magnelis steel ZM430 can be used for foundations in soil or concrete. A guarantee up to 25 years is possible based upon a local soil analysis. Protected by Magnelis industry.arcelormittal.com/magnelis As your investment deserves a long life Magnelis Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2021 - 2025 3 Foreword Welcome to the Global Market Outlook for Solar Power 2021-2025. Nobody could have predicted a year ago that solar would manage so smoothly through a devastating global pandemic, and yet, despite the fact that COVID-19 has persisted longer than expected, global demand for solar did not shrink at all. Instead, surprising us yet again, solar reached a new annual record of 18 growth, with 138 GW installed in 2020. The success of solar is due to many factors. A primary one is its cost leadership, which continues to improve without an end in sight. Another is its versatility solar covers an unmatched spectrum of power applications from very small residential systems to very large utility-scale plants, individual installations to building-integrated solutions in carports, apartment houses or agricultural green houses. There are also mobile applications and off-grid systems for rural electrification. Finally, no other power plant can be planned and built as rapidly as solar PV, while at the same time involving the highest job intensity. This solar market outlook sees much stronger growth for each of the coming years than anticipated in our previous edition. While the deployment volume is somewhat limited due to COVID-19 and the silicon raw material shortage in 2021, increasing vaccination rates in major solar markets and new silicon factories coming online will result in additions of over 200 GW per year as of 2022, two years earlier than forecasted in last year’s GMO. The total solar power generation fleet will boost capacities from about three quarters of a terawatt in 2020, to over 1 TW in 2022, and nearly 1.9 TW in 2025, in our most realistic scenario. There is good reason why the International Energy Agency IEA, in its World Energy Outlook 2020 highlights that solar is the new king of electricity markets. While China was the main growth driver in 2020, boosting its solar grid-connections by 60 to 48 GW, bringing online about 2.5 times the capacity of the second largest market, the United States; we now have more markets that installed 1 GW per year than ever before. In 2018, only 11 countries were in the GW-club, which grew to 18 in 2020, and will reach 29 by 2023. One of the biggest solar surprises in the last two years was Vietnam, the world’s third largest solar market in 2020. Two attractive incentive schemes had the country first develop in just one year a vibrant GW-level utility scale market, followed in 2020 by the creation of a gigantic solar rooftop market, kick-starting the segment from basically nil to over 9 GW, with 6.9 GW connected to the grid in December alone. This example shows how fast the solar industry can execute under the right framework conditions. Except for COVID-19 impacted 2020, we have seen in the past and expect in the future double-digit growth also in the off-grid solar market, a field we are covering for the first time in our Global Market Outlook. With the support of GET.invest we started a research project to address the vast market of close to 10 of the global population without access to electricity. However, it would be a big mistake to sit back and enjoy the coming years of solar growth. A recent industry poll on COVID-19 by the Global Solar Council shows that the majority of respondents were not overly happy with the emergency stimulus offered to the solar sector during the crisis as well as the post-crisis recovery funds, even though satisfaction rates increased. Indeed, our pre-pandemic released GMO 2019 forecasted somewhat higher installation levels in 2020 than we actually saw happening. The pandemic did slow down solar growth at a time when every additional solar watt counts. While it is certainly a cause for celebration that solar keeps surprising us with larger installation numbers, considering the fact that around 70 of global power still comes from non-renewable polluting energy and global carbon dioxide emissions are set this year for their second biggest increase in history, solar power needs more support from policymakers. Only much higher ambition and appropriate policy frameworks will enable the industry to accelerate deployment in order to tap the full potential of solar - and meet the Paris Agreement target. We want to express sincere gratitude to all contributors and supporters of this globally-produced solar market outlook that would not have been possible without all the different helping hands. Enjoy reading our Global Market Outlook. WALBURGA HEMETSBERGER CEO, SolarPower Europe MICHAEL SCHMELA Executive Advisor, SolarPower Europe GIANNI CHIANETTA CEO, Global Solar Council Thanks to our Sponsor Members Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2021 - 20254 Project manager GIZ Energy Support Program; Japan Photovoltaic Energy Association JPEA; Steve Blume, Smart Energy Council SEC; Tusshar Sharma Rodrigo Lopes Sauaia Peter Molengraaf Jos Donoso Paulina Wojciechowska, Polskie Stowarzyszenie Fotowoltaiki PSF; Jaime Prez de Laborda, Mexican Association of Solar Energy Asolmex; Artem Semenyshyn, Solar Energy Association of Ukraine ASEU; Niveshen Govender, South African Photovoltaic Industry Association SAPVIA; Ccile Heneffe, Fdration des nergies renouvelables EDORA; Wannes Demarcke, Marie Buchet, Syndicat des Energies Renouvelables SER; Francesco Luise PV AUSTRA AT; APSTE BG CanREA CA; ACESOL CL; ACERD CD; OIE HR; Solrn asociace CZ; Dansk Solcelleforening DK; LUT University Enerplan FR; BSW-Solar DE; HELAPCO GR; MANAP HU; ISEA IE; GEA-IL IL; ANIE Rinnovabili ILR LU; NSEC NO; APREN PT; Hevel Solar RU; SAPI SK; ZSFV SI; UNEF ES; Svensk Solenergi SE; BFE TAREA TZ; GNDER TR; MESIA UAE; Solar Energy UK GB; African Solar Industry Association AFSIA; GOGLA. Text editing Lukas Clark-Memler a separate overview of off-grid solar is provided in Chapter 2. Installed capacity is always expressed in DC, unless otherwise stated. All figures are based on SolarPower Europe’s best knowledge at the time of publication. Disclaimer This report has been prepared by SolarPower Europe. It is being furnished to the recipients for general information only. Nothing in it should be interpreted as an offer or recommendation of any products, services or financial products. This report does not constitute technical, investment, legal, tax or any other advice. Recipients should consult with their own technical, financial, legal, tax or other advisors as needed. This report is based on sources believed to be accurate. However, SolarPower Europe does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this report. SolarPower Europe assumes no obligation to update any information contained herein. SolarPower Europe will not be held liable for any direct or indirect damage incurred by the use of the information provided and will not provide any indemnities. Unless otherwise stated, the copyright and other intellectual property rights of market intelligence data and resources provided are owned by SolarPower Europe. Table of contents Foreword 3 Executive summary 5 1 Global solar market 7 Update 2000 - 2020 12 Prospects 2021 - 2025 24 Segments 2021 - 2025 33 2 Off-grid solar 37 Trends What’s cool in solar technology 63 Highlight COVID-19 impacts on solar 73 3 GW-scale solar power markets in 2020 77 4 Global Market Outlook for solar power 132 Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2021 - 2025 5 Executive summary Despite the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic across the world in 2020, the year still saw 138.2 GW of solar installed, representing an 18 growth compared to 2019, yet another global annual installation record for the solar PV sector. This brings the global cumulative solar capacity to 773.2 GW, a 22 increase, and marks a new milestone for the solar sector by exceeding three quarters of a terawatt. This surprisingly strong growth helped solar maintain its dominance among all newly installed power generating technologies, reaching a 39 global share, which translates into the impressive fact that more than every third power plant unit installed in 2020 came from solar. At the same time, solar’s total power generation share increased by 0.5 percentage points to around 3.1, with nearly 70 still coming from fossil fuel and nuclear, highlighting the need to rapidly accelerate solar deployments. The good news is that solar’s cost competitiveness progressed further in 2020, resulting in an even wider spread to conventional generation technologies as the cost of gas, coal, and nuclear increased. Solar’s cost improved across the board for all segments with utility-scale solar now superior to fossil fuels in all unsubsidised investment cases, which also applies to solar storage used to meet peak demand compared to gas peakers, according to investment bank Lazard. The strength of solar could be observed in many tenders in 2020, where several winning bids in different geographical regions outperformed the record low of the previous year. At 1.32 USD cents, the 2020 global record bid in the second Portuguese auction was approximately 20 lower compared to the 2019 record, which was also achieved in Portugal. The strong performance of China, growing by 60 to 48.2 GW, easily overcompensated for India’s losses in 2020, pushing up demand for solar in the Asia-Pacific region to a global share of 62. While an exceptionally good year for solar in the United States carried the Americas to a higher share of 19, Europe’s slower growth rate than the global average meant a market share reduction to 17. Despite China’s market growth, the number of volume markets entering the GW-level has only marginally increased to 18 in 2020, up from 17 the year before. In the first half of 2021, the solar sector was characterised by increasing costs for wafer, cell, and module manufacturers, primarily due to rising silicon prices because of a supply shortage. COVID-19 affected several major solar markets, in particular India. However, a Global Solar Council poll on the impacts of the pandemic on the solar sector showed an improving industry outlook, with 81 of respondents expecting sales to grow in 2021 compared to 72 in 2020 see Chapter ‘COVID-19 impacts on solar’. Despite the various price increases along the solar value chain and the continued negative impact of COVID-19 and its variants, solar will see another stellar growth year in 2021. Our Medium Scenario anticipates newly installed capacities to increase by 18 to 163.2 GW. As vaccination rates reach necessary levels across the major solar markets, and with the silicon supply issue solved, the next four years are expected to be very strong for solar power around the world. For each year up to 2025, we have considerably increased our forecasts, but 2022 will stand out. In our Medium Scenario, we see the global solar market increase by 25 to 203 GW in 2022, the first time that annual PV installations will cross the 200 GW level, which we had previously expected to be accomplished only in 2024. With continued growth to annual additions of 266 GW in 2025, the operating global solar power generation portfolio will reach close to 1.9 TW, and in the most optimistic scenario even exceed the 2 TW level in four years’ time. The Global Market Outlook traditionally has focused on grid-connected solar. In order to offer a view on the much smaller but, for hundreds of millions of people around the world, existentially-important off-grid sector, we have extended our research this year to show that solar off-grid applications across all segments – small scale, C 5 Hydro 21 GW; 6 Gas 59 GW ; 17 Wind 114 GW; 33 Solar 138 GW; 39 2020 SOURCE IEA 2021. SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2021 1 Global solar market / continued Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2021 - 20258 While solar’s leadership in annual global installations for the last few years is indeed a very positive development, this needs to be taken into perspective. Solar was able to increase its share among operating power generation plants by 1.5 percentage points last year, but the total capacity amounted to only 10 by the end of 2020. In terms of actual output, solar improved by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, but cumulatively it barely generated 3.1 of last year’s global power production see Fig. 2. This is also valid for renewables as a whole, which improved by 2.3 percentage points to 39 of total generation capacities, and by 0.9 percentage points to 29 of the world’s total power generation. The good news when taking a much bigger and longer perspective is that solar’s share of the market is continuously increasing. And with no end for improvements in cost competitiveness in sight, the potential for solar power is only growing. FIGURE 2 SOLAR AND RENEWABLE POWER AS A SHARE OF GLOBAL POWER 2015-2020 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Other RE power as a of global power generation Non-RE power as a of global power generation Solar power as a of global power generation Solar capacity change as a of global capacity additions net RE capacity change as a of global capacity additions net 62 59 68 73 80 83 21 30 34 42 48 39 1.0 22 23 23 24 26 22 1.3 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.1 SOURCE IRENA 2021; IEA 2021; SPE estimates. RE capacity includes large hydro. SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2021 Global Market Outlook For Solar Power 2021 - 2025 9 regions around the world. The latest Levelised Cost of Energy LCOE analysis, version 14.0, published in October 2020 by US investment bank Lazard, illustrates how the downwar