【洞见氢能】氢能投资、市场开发与成本竞争力探究

Hydrogen Insights A perspective on hydrogen investment, market development and cost competitiveness February 2021 Hydrogen Insights Report 2021 Hydrogen Council, McKinsey and 2. It is not their intention that any such form of coordination will be adopted. Whilst the contents of the Report and its abstract implications for the industry generally can be discussed once they have been prepared, individual strategies remain proprietary, confidential and the responsibility of each participant. Participants are reminded that, as part of the invariable practice of the Hydrogen Council and the EU competition law obligations to which membership activities are subject, such strategic and confidential information must not be shared or coordinated – including as part of this Report. Contents Executive summary iii I. Introduction and methodology 2 Hydrogen Insights is a leading global perspective on hydrogen 2 The Hydrogen Insights report methodology 3 II. Deployment and investment 6 Tremendous momentum exists, with over 200 H 2 projects announced worldwide 6 More than USD 300 billion in H2 investments through 2030 7 Regulation and government support drive this momentum 8 III. Hydrogen supply 12 Renewable hydrogen could break even with gray H2 before 2030 in optimal regions 12 Electrolyzer capex savings can reduce costs quickly in a rapid global scale-up 15 Expected electrolyzer learning curves could be too conservative 15 IV. Hydrogen distribution and global supply chains 18 The optimal H2 transport mode will vary by distance, terrain and end-use no universal solution exists 18 Hydrogen pipelines 20 Hydrogen carriers 21 Hydrogen global transport can cost less than USD 2-3/kg 24 V. End applications 26 The cost competitiveness of hydrogen applications 26 Hydrogen production cost breakeven 27 A. Road transport and mining equipment 28 B. Ammonia 31 C. Steel 32 D. Sustainable shipping fuels 34 E. Aviation 37 VI. Implementation bringing it all together to capture the promise of hydrogen 42 iii Hydrogen Insights Report 2021 Hydrogen Council, McKinsey they also do not include any cost for hydrogen transportation and distribution. With the advent of hydrogen giga-scale projects, hydrogen production costs can continue to fall. For renewable hydrogen, the biggest driver is a quicker decline in renewables costs than previously expected, driven by at-scale deployment and low financing costs. 2030 renewable costs could be as much as 15 lower than estimated just a year ago. The strongest reductions are expected in locations with optimal resources such as Australia, Chile, North Africa and the Middle East. But lower renewable costs are not enough for low-cost clean hydrogen production, value chains for electrolysis and carbon management need to be scaled up. This will not happen on its own a further step-up of public support is required to bridge the cost gap, develop low-cost renewable capacities and scale-up carbon transportation and storage sites. For the cost projections in this report, we assume an ambitious development of the use of hydrogen in line with the Hydrogen Council vision. For electrolysis, for example, we assume 90 GW deployment by 2030. Such a scale-up will lead to a rapid industrialization of the electrolyzer value chain. The industry has already announced electrolyzer capacity increases to over approximately 3 GW per year, and will need to scale rapidly beyond that. This scaling can translate into system costs falling faster than previously estimated, hitting USD 480-620 per kilowatt kW by 2025 and USD 230-380 per KW by 2030. System costs include stack and balance of plant but exclude transportation, installation and assembly, costs of building and any indirect costs. At-scale deployment of renewable hydrogen will require the development of giga-scale hydrogen production projects. Such projects with purpose-built renewables can boost utilization by merging multiple renewable sources, such as a combined supply from onshore wind and solar photovoltaics PV, and by overbuilding renewables supply versus electrolyzer capacity. In combination, projections show that renewable hydrogen production costs could decline to USD 1.4 to 2.3 per kilogram kg by 2030 the range results from differences between optimal and average regions. 1 This means new renewable and gray hydrogen supply could hit cost parity in the best regions by 2028, and between 2032 and 2034 in average regions. In parallel to renewable hydrogen production, low-carbon hydrogen production from natural gas has continued to evolve technologically. With higher CO2 capture rates and lower capex requirements, low-carbon hydrogen production is a strong complementary production pathway. If carbon transportation and storage sites are developed at scale, low-carbon hydrogen could break even with gray hydrogen by the end of the decade at a cost of about USD 35-50 per ton t of carbon dioxide equivalent CO2e 1 . Distribution Cost-efficient transmission and distribution required to unlock hydrogen applications With hydrogen production costs falling, transmission and distribution costs are the next frontier when it comes to reducing delivered hydrogen costs. Longer-term, a hydrogen pipeline network offers the most cost-efficient means of distribution. For example, pipelines can transmit 10 times the energy at one-eighth the costs associated with electricity transmission lines and have capex costs similar to those for natural gas. The industry can partially reuse existing gas infrastructure, but even newly constructed pipelines would not be cost prohibitive assuming leakage and other safety risks are properly addressed. For example, we estimate the cost to transport hydrogen from North Africa v Hydrogen Insights Report 2021 Hydrogen Council, McKinsey hydrogen shipping, distribution and retail infrastructure; and the take up of end applications. One place to support deployment is the development of clusters with large-scale hydrogen offtakers at their core. These will drive scale through the equipment value chain and reduce the cost of hydrogen production. By combining multiple offtakers, suppliers can share both investments and risks while establishing positive reinforcing loops. Other smaller hydrogen offtakers in the vicinity of such clusters can then piggy-back on the lower-cost hydrogen supply, making their operations breakeven faster. We see several cluster types gaining traction, including Port areas for fuel bunkering, port logistics, and transportation Industrial centers that support refining, power generation, and fertilizer and steel production Export hubs in resource-rich countries vii Hydrogen Insights Report 2021 Hydrogen Council, McKinsey LOHC cost dependent on benefits for last mile distribution and storage 3. Compressed gaseous hydrogen 51–100 km 1,000 km101–500 km0–50 km 5,000 km Distribution Costs Transmission Gaseous trucking N/A N/ADistribution truck CH 2 3 Distribution truck CH 2 3 Distribution truck CH 2 3 City grid Regional distribution pipelines Onshore transmission pipelines Onshore/Subsea transmission pipelines N/A Retrofitted LH 2 N/A LH 2 shipN/A N/A LH 2 ship New City grid Regional distribution pipelines Onshore transmission pipelines Onshore/Subsea transmission pipelines N/A NH 3 2 N/A N/A N/A NH 3 ship NH 3 ship LOHC 2 N/A N/A N/A LOHC shipLOHC ship Pipelines 1 Shipping Trucking LH 2 trucking N/A N/ADistribution truck LH 2 Distribution truck LH 2 Distribution truck LH 2 2 USD/kg1–2 USD/kg0.1–1 USD/kg0.1 USD/kg Exhibit 12 Overview of distribution options Hydrogen pipelines Hydrogen pipelines are cheaper than electricity transmission lines Hydrogen pipelines can effectively transport renewable hydrogen across long distances. They can transport 10 times the energy at one-eighth the cost associated with electricity transmission lines. Furthermore, hydrogen pipelines have a longer lifespan than electricity transmission lines and offer dual functionality, serving as both a transmission and storage medium for green energy. Pipelines enable both international and regional/ last-mile transport, moving H2 up to 5,000km at low cost While distribution networks cover regional and last-mile transport, onshore and subsea transmission pipelines could move hydrogen across distances that range from 500 to 5,000 or more kilometers. Pipelines can achieve extremely low-cost H2 transport compared with alternative transportation modes, especially where retrofits of existing infrastructure are possible. 8 For example, retrofitting pipelines can save 60-90 of the cost of greenfield pipeline development. 8 The option to retrofit depends on the existing pipeline material, age, location, operating conditions, and availability, which might be limited due to long-term natural gas transmission agreements. 20 Hydrogen Insights Report 2021 Hydrogen Council, McKinsey Company but not all hydrogen pipelines are equal While hydrogen pipelines provide cheaper transportation compared with many alternatives, the actual costs of hydrogen networks vary by type, length of network, and the condition of the retrofitted pipeline itself. Typical capex costs for onshore transmission networks including compression will range between USD 0.6 and 1.2 million per km for retrofit and USD 2.2 and 4.5 million per km for newly built H 2 pipelines, resulting in H 2 transport costs of USD 0.13-0.23/kg/1000km see Exhibit 13. 0.6–1.2 Retrofit New 2.2–4.5 Cost estimation Capex in Million USD/km Subsea transmission pipelinesOnshore transmission pipelines Description Smaller, lower pressure pipelines for last-mile gas delivery to end users Large, high pressure transmission pipelines transporting gas through oceans Large, high pressure transmission pipelines transporting gas on land 15 of costs of onshore transmission pipelines New 4.7–7.1 1.3–3.1 Retrofit 0.3–0.7 0.1–0.2 Retrofit New 1.3–2.3x costs of onshore transmission pipelines 3x Ease of retrofitting Potential availability constraints due to long-term natural gas commitments and capacity contracts High compression requirements and subsea transmission network may be challenging Distribution network location in densely populated areas could be problematic Low Medium High Distribution pipelines Exhibit 13 Comparing hydrogen pipelines For offshore/subsea transmission pipelines, costs are a factor 1.3 to 2.3 higher, given the specific challenges and conditions of subsea pipeline construction and operation for both new projects and retrofits. Distribution pipelines are substantially cheaper than transmission pipelines roughly 15 of transmission pipeline costs, given their smaller diameter and lower pressures. However, distribution pipelines will likely become relevant only in the runup to 2040, when demand for hydrogen in residential and commercial buildings exceeds the threshold that the blending of up to 20 hydrogen into the natural gas grid can supply. The costs of retrofitting versus building new pipelines depend on a variety of factors including diameter and pressure, the quality of the materials used, the pipeline’s overall condition, the existence of cracks, the social costs of construction, and other considerations. Many of these factors are location-specific and thus give some regions and countries an advantage for retrofitting the natural gas grid. For example, in the Netherlands, parallel natural gas grid infrastructure allows companies to retrofit for hydrogen usage while gradually phasing out natural gas. The costs of retrofitting can change based on pipeline upgrades and the presence of connected equipment such as metering stations, valves, and compressor stations. 21 Hydrogen Insights Report 2021 Hydrogen Council, McKinsey Company