【CITPV】 全球光伏市场展望

p全球光伏市场展望Global Solar Market Outlook栾栋 Jonathan LuanSeptember 6, 2019 1 September 6, 2019 覆盖全球与当地市场250名 遍布全球17个城市的彭博新能源财经专家团队慕尼黑北京香港新德里新加坡悉尼东京米兰苏黎世伦敦首尔纽约华盛顿旧金山圣保罗墨西哥城休斯顿 2 September 6, 2019 战略制定，着眼未来 3 September 6, 2019Source BloombergNEF Global LCOE benchmarks 全球基准度电成本From cost burden to cost advantage新能源成本已从负担转变成了优势 4 September 6, 2019 Most competitive source of new bulk generation 2014 最低价电量来源2014年Wind and solar are the most competitive power 风电光伏竞争力与日俱增 Source BloombergNEF 5 September 6, 2019 Most competitive source of new bulk generation 2019 最低价电量来源2019年Wind and solar are the most competitive power 风电光伏竞争力与日俱增 Source BloombergNEF 6 September 6, 2019 Source BloombergNEFSource BloombergNEF LCOE for new solarstorage China 中国新增光储度电成本LCOE for new windstorage China 中国新增风储度电成本And becoming competitive with storage风光储项目经济性也与日俱增 7 September 6, 2019Source BloombergNEF, IEA 50 wind and solar generation globally by 2050 到2050年，风光发电占全球半壁江山62 renewables可再生能源31 fossil fuels 化石能源48 wind and solar风电与光伏 8 September 6, 2019Source BloombergNEF Cumulative installed capacity, by technology 累计装机量Wind and solar dominate China’s future power system 风光挑起中国未来电力系统的大梁23 fossil-fuel nbsp; nbsp;化石能源67 renewables nbsp; nbsp;可再生能源7 flexible nbsp; 灵活电源 9 September 6, 2019Source BloombergNEF Short-term global PV outlook短期全球光伏需求展望 10 September 6, 2019 Source BloombergNEFSource BloombergNEF Stable markets 稳健市场Growing markets 增量市场19 markets exceeding 1GWGW级市场多达19个 11 September 6, 2019Source BloombergNEF Levelized cost of energy by investment tax credit received 不同ITC下的光伏LCOEU.S. rushes for ITC 美国抢拿ITC 12 September 6, 2019Source BloombergNEF, Parliament of Australia, Renewable Energy Electricity Amendment Bill 2015. Forecast supply-demand in the LRET LRET供需平衡预测Australia LRET to reach targets澳洲大型电站新能源发电目标几近达成 13 September 6, 2019 Source BloombergNEFSource BloombergNEF, Clean Energy Regulator, Australian Photovoltaic Institute Total added small-scale solar capacity年新增小型光伏规模Cumulative behind-the-meter PV in Victoria 维多利亚省分布式光伏累计增量A rooftop Renaissance屋顶“复兴”GW 14 September 6, 2019 Source BloombergNEFSource BloombergNEF Gap between 2020 low and high scenarios 2020年高、低情景差距Sub-1GW emerging marketsGW级以下新兴市场Further potential其他潜在增量 15 September 6, 2019 Source BloombergNEFSource BloombergNEF 2020 downside potential2020年主要下行市场2021 downside potential2021年主要下行市场Potential downside市场下行风险 16 September 6, 2019 235GWCumulative global auctioned capacity as of July 201988GWGlobal pipeline of renewable energy auctionsAuction is the biggest route to market 竞价成为全球主流 17 September 6, 2019Source BloombergNEF. Note Plant level data used for Latin America auctions where support is awarded for generation. China now the second largest auction market中国可再生能源竞价量全球第二 18 September 6, 2019Source BloombergNEF. Note Plant level data used for Latin America auctions where support is awarded for generation. A potential record year in 20192019年有望创历史新高 19 September 6, 2019 Source BloombergNEFSource BloombergNEF, Ministry for Ecological and Inclusive Transition Winning bids in French PV auctions法国光伏竞价结果Solar tariffs in Indian auctions印度光伏竞价结果Prices rebound in auctions中标电价出现反弹Where 在哪些市场 20 September 6, 2019Source BloombergNEF Bidders’ appetite for India’s federal solar auctions 印度联邦光伏竞价报名情况Undersubscription becomes more frequent 供过于求更加频繁Where 在哪些市场 21 September 6, 2019Source BloombergNEF Grid can host more PV 如何让电网接入更多光伏Where 在哪些市场 22 September 6, 2019 Source BloombergNEF; SAPN Pricing Proposal 2019/20; AEMOSource BloombergNEF; Hawaiian Electric; PVWatts Hawaiian Electric interim time of use retail tariff for residential customers夏威夷电力公司临时户用分时电价结构SAPN proposed trial time of use network tariff for residential customers南澳电网户用分时电价结构提案Time of use rates 分时上网电价 23 September 6, 2019 Portugal auctioned off grid connection葡萄牙光伏竞价为并网点买单 Source BloombergNEF. Note wholesale prices and revenues of the 15-year tariff lifetime are for illustrative purposes only. 24 September 6, 2019 U.S. imports of PV modules by country of origin, Jan – May 2019 美国组件进口，2019年1-5月U.S. imports of PV modules, by month and country of origin 美国组件进口，按月及国家U.S.-China trade war limited impact on solar中美贸易战对光伏影响有限 Source BloombergNEF 25 September 6, 2019 Source Bloomberg Terminal, BloombergNEFSource Bloomberg Terminal, BloombergNEF Argentina consumer price index, year-on-year change 阿根廷CPI，同比变化Emerging markets currency performance vs. the U.S. dollar in 2018 新兴市场货币对比美元贬值情况Renewables suffer as Argentina struggles to rebound 阿根廷金融危机波及可再生能源 26 September 6, 2019Source BloombergNEF, CAMMESA Argentina auction results, status and capacity by tender 阿根廷可再生能源各轮竞价结果Renewables suffer as Argentina struggles to rebound 阿根廷金融危机波及可再生能源 27 September 6, 2019Source BloombergNEF Past auction volume and prices 过往竞价规模及价格Renewables suffer as Argentina struggles to rebound 阿根廷金融危机波及可再生能源 28 September 6, 2019 Source BloombergNEF. Notes Mexico’s fourth long-term clean power auction was cancelled in January 2019.Source BloombergNEF Commissioned solar/wind projects by auction 墨西哥风光并网量，按竞价轮分Mexico auctions power contracted墨西哥竞价规模Mexico’s energy revolution sputters 墨西哥能源转型停滞 29 September 6, 2019Source BloombergNEF nbsp;Note Chart is for offsite PPAs only. APAC capacity is estimated. Pre-market reform Mexico PPAs excluded. Figures are subject to change and may be updated as more information is made available. Data is through August 2019. Consumer-driven growth already an engine for growth 企业引领风光发展已成趋势Global corporate PPAs, by region 全球企业绿电采购协议/p