ITRPV 2018 including Maturity Report Presentation

VDMA | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 1 | September 4th 2018 Trends mono-Si/mc-Si  accelerate implementation of cost reductionsVDMA Outline  Today‘s PV Industry – market expectations and learning curve status  ITRPV – Some Results download  www.ITRPV.net Photovoltaic Equipment Chairs EU Chairs PRC Chairs TW Chairs US Grey Industrial solution exists, and is being optimized in production Yellow Industrial solution is known but not yet in mass production Red Interim solution is known, but too expensive or not suitable for production purple Industrial solution is not known Working group today includes 55 contributors from Asia, Australia, Europe, and USVDMA Wafer Materials - poly-Si utilization and wafer thickness | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 9 | September 4th 2018 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 [gram] mc-Si, slurry based mono-Si, slurry based mc-Si, diamond wire based mono-Si, diamond wire based ITRPV 2018 mono-Si / diamond wire based mc-Si / diamond wire based mono-Si / slurry based mc-Si / slurry based 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 [m] Wafer thickness multi Wafer thickness mono limit of cell thickness in future modul technology ITRPV 2018 Limit of cell thickness in future module technology Wafer thickness multi Wafer thickness mono 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 [m] Kerf loss for slurry based wire sawing Kerf loss for diamond wire sawing TTV for slurry based wire sawing TTV for diamond wire sawing ITRPV 2018 Kerf loss for diamond wire sawing Kerf loss for slurry-based wire sawing Trend DWS enables tremendous progress poly Si utilization standard wafer ≈ 10g - slurry based wafering 19g - DWS 16g  13g are possible yellow  fast progress possible grey  development is needed to follow roadmap red  slurry wafering will disappearVDMA | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 10 | September 4th 2018 Cell Processes – front side metallization trends Trend remaining silver Trend number of bus bars Silver reduction will continue Measures - reduction of finger width  more bus bars - 3 BB will disappear  ≥5 BB mainstream today - Single print will remain mainstream Trend finger width and alignment 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 Amount of silver per cell [mg/cell] assumption 19.8 x 0.985 CTM ≈ 4.72W/ cell *  ≈ 21.4 t / GWp  ≈ 2140 t 100GW 7.5 of world Silver market 2017** 2018 consumption ≈ 19.3 t / GWp August 2018 478 US/kg  ≈ 0.91 cent/ Wp* * avg. module power 280W labeled ** Assumption ≈ 29,000t / 1018 MOz 2017 market https//www.silverinstitute.org/publications/ 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 3 busbars 4 busbars 5 busbars 6 and more busbars busbarless ITRPV 2018 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 [m] Finger width Alignment precision ITRPV 2018 Finger width Alignment precisionVDMA Cell Processes – recombination current densities | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 11 | September 4th 2018 0 50 100 150 200 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 Recombination current [fA/cm 2 ] J0 bulk p-type multi J0 bulk p-type mono J0 bulk n-type mono ITRPV 2018 J0 bulk p-type multi J0 bulk p-type mono J0 bulk n-type mono 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 Recombination current [fA/cm 2 ] J0 front p-type material J0 rear p-type material J0 rear n-type mono back contact J0 front n-type mono SHJ or back contact n leads; p has improvement potential grey for 50fA/cm require development yellow/red  J0 bulk mc-Si needs more efforts to improve; but cost is still advantageousVDMA 3.000 5.000 7.000 9.000 11.000 13.000 15.000 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 [Wafer/h] chemical processes, progessive scenario thermal processes, progressive scenario metallisation c 1895 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 0 200 400 600 800 1.000 1.200 1.400 1.600 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Shipments [GWp] Railway net length [1000 km] logistic growth approx. historic data PV historic dataVDMA | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 19 | September 4th 2018 Outlook - PV today and in future Different calculated scenarios are considered in 9 th edition  Example mixed scenario mix 23 TWp/ 30 PWh prim. en. peak 900 GWp / 2035 max 70 GW/year in 2030  Shipments 2017 were ahead of all approaches  2018 shipments are expected to follow trend VDMA | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 20 | September 4th 2018 Outlook - PV today and in future Different calculated scenarios are considered in 9 th edition  Example mixed scenario mix 23 TWp/ 30 PWh prim. en. peak 900 GWp / 2035 max 70 GW/year in 2030  2017 annual market was ahead of all approaches  2018 annual market is expected to slow downVDMA Outline  Today‘s PV Industry – market expectations and learning curve status  ITRPV – Some Results Updates incl. maturity Report - Materials and Processes - Products and Systems  PV installations – outlook and PV production capacity requirements  Summary September 4th 2018 | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 21 |VDMA Summary − Flash light on PV market and c-Si price trend − Update of ITRPV – maturity report shows faster implementation of improvments − Silicon PV will remain dominating but will stay very volatile  Competition mono/mc-Si  strong impetus for mono  Exciting competition between p-type PERC and n-type cell concepts is ahead  Success requires innovation and increasing flexibility  ITRPV shows technical trends and describes possible paths to meet the challenges September 4th 2018 | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 22 |