中型和重型公路车辆零排放成本分析（英）-NREL.pdf

pDecarbonizing Medium- 74 VMT 39 stock; 26 VMT Buses are also included and described here. FAF Freight Analysis Framework HEV hybrid electric vehicle ICEV internal combustion engine vehicle VIUS Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey AEO U.S. Energy Information Administration. 2019. Annual Energy Outlook 2019. https//www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/. FAF Federal Highway Administration FHWA, 2019. Freight Analysis Framework - 2017. https//ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/freight_analysis/faf/. VIUS U.S. Census Bureau US CB, 2004. Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey VIUS. Retrieved from https//www.census.gov/library/publications/2002/econ/census/vehicle-inventory-and-use-survey.html.NREL | 12 Drivers of Vehicle Adoption Vehicle adoption in TEMPO is determined by total cost of driving TCD o Upfront vehicle cost manufacturer39;s suggested retail price [MSRP] o Fuel costs vehicle fuel economy and fuel price o Maintenance costs o Vehicle usage VMT o Financial horizon considered or discount rate o Monetized charging time cost for BEVs charging availability and speed o Logit formulation – captures heterogeneities. Lowest TCD captures greatest market share. Nonfinancial factors like availability of make/models, driver preferences, manufacturing or infrastructure constraints, and other external drivers of adoption are not considered. Resale value is not considered. Example of a ZEV reaching cost parity with ICEV Cost parity ZEV reaches breakeven within assumed financial horizon despite higher vehicle cost, thanks to lower operational costsNREL | 13 Key Assumptions Zero-emission vehicle technologies BEV , FCEV MSRP and fuel economy improving over time, in line with DOE projections and vetted with industry o Batteries 80/kWh pack level in 2035 and 50/kWh in 2050 see battery and fuel cell assumptions o Fuel Cells 80/kW in 2035 and 60/kW in 2050 see battery and fuel cell assumptions o Conventional ICEV fuel economy is assumed to improve by 32–37 across vehicle classes by 2050 see details. Zero-emission infrastructure and fuels see fuel price trajectories o BEV charging is assumed to become progressively available as BEVs are adopted o BEV average charging price reaches 0.18/kWh by 2030 and is held constant through 2050 o FCEV fueling is assumed to phase in and be fully available by 2040 o Hydrogen average refueling price reaches 4/kg by 2035 and is held constant through 2050 o Results for alternative fuel price assumptions available in sensitivity scenarios here. Beyond technology advancements, how we think about the investments and the financial horizon considered when adopting transportation technologies can have a substantial impact on cost of driving o 3–5 years financial horizon considered when determining cost parity for ZEVs see details. Additional savings can be accrued over over vehicle lifetime but are assumed to not impact adoption decisions.NREL | 14 Key Uncertainties The following parameters are highly uncertain and significantly affect model outcomes and trade-offs between different technologies see sensitivities Fuel cost evolution diesel, electricity, and especially hydrogen and infrastructure utilization. Vehicle costs and fuel economy. Financial horizon – years of incremental cost savings considered by fleet owners when making purchase decisions; may be different for different use cases. Vehicle adoption decisions – the assumption that fleets will make decisions based on tangible economic considerations, versus other harder-to-quantify factors like decarbonization pledges. Future freight demand growth, stock turnover, and freight logistics including truck operations and trip distance distributions. o Charging speed and value of charging time for BEVs are also uncertain. Limited data for non-freight uses 26 of VMT, here assumed to reach cost parity in line with short-distance freight trucks. SYSTEM-LEVEL PERSPECTIVE MARKET SEGMENTATIONNREL | 16 2019 MHDV Emissions TEMPO MHDV market segmentation Freight demand ton-miles in 2017 from FAF, segmented by shipment distance bin. Freight demand growth over time from AEO 55 by 2050. Total VMT by vehicle size class from AEO. Load factors by vehicle class from VIUS. Vehicle use by distance bin derived from FAF-VIUS synthesis. Total vehicle stock based on AEO and separated into shipment distances using FAF and VIUS. Vehicle sales estimated endogenously in TEMPO with tech mix based on TCD. Vehicle fuel economy from AEO 2017 and future projections vary by scenario. 2019 MHDV Emissions 445 MM ton CO 2 NREL | 17 2019 MHDV Stock Stock and sales shares are not necessarily proportional to contributions to emissions, due to wide disparities in VMT and fuel economy. Heavy trucks are 40 of total vehicle stock but are responsible for about 70 of emissions due to lower fuel economy and greater VMT. For trucks, 2019 total stock is based on AEO and separated into shipment distances using FAF and VIUS. Bus stock is estimated from AEO passenger-miles traveled PMT. 2019 MHDV Stock 13 M vehiclesCOST PARITY ANALYSISNREL | 19 Cost Parity by Distance Bin Light-Medium Trucks Vehicle Sales Energy Share 35 11 Energy Share 10 Different freight distance bins impact vehicle VMT and TCD, in turn affecting when ZEVs reach cost parity BEV-150 reach cost parity for 100–249- mile uses in 2026 BEV-150 reach cost parity for 0–99-mile uses in 2028 lower VMT FCEV reach cost parity in 2032, BEV- 500 in 2035 high charging costs Energy Share 26,000 26,000 56,000 12,000 Average Annual VMT Year ZEVs Reach Cost Parity Shipment Distance Bin [miles] 0-99 100-249 250-499 500-749 0 10 1 0NREL | 20 Two ZEV tech solutions and pathways for many applications provide more options and mitigate risks. o BEVs achieve cost parity with ICEVs before 2035 in every distance bin. 99 ZEV sales by 2035 or earlier o 2050 stock 75 BEV , 11 FCEV , 14 ICEV 2050 sales 88 BEV; 12 FCEV. Vehicle Sales Energy Share 35 11 Energy Share 26,000 26,000 56,000 12,000 Average Annual VMT Year ZEVs Reach Cost Parity Shipment Distance Bin [miles] 0-99 100-249 250-499 500-749 0 10 1 0 3-year financial horizon Cost Parity by Distance Bin Light-Medium TrucksNREL | 21 ZEVs achieve cost parity with ICEVs before 2035 in every distance bin. Two ZEV tech solutions and pathways for many applications provide more options and mitigate risks. 99 ZEV sales by 2046 o 2050 stock 66 BEV , 16 FCEV , 18 ICEV 2050 sales 82 BEV; 18 FCEV , 0 ICEV. Vehicle Sales Energy Share 25 15 46,000 46,000 60,000 64,000 11,000 Energy Share Average Annual VMT Year ZEVs Reach Cost Parity Shipment Distance Bin [miles] 10 3 1 1 0-99 100-249 250-499 500-749 750-999 0 Energy Share Year ZEVs Reach Cost Parity 4-year financial horizon Cost Parity by Distance Bin Medium TrucksNREL | 22 ZEVs achieve cost parity with ICEVs by 2035 in every distance bin. Two ZEV tech solutions and pathways for many applications provide more options and mitigate risks. 99 ZEV sales by 2042. Shorter-distance bins dominated by BEVs; longer bins dominated by FCEVs. o 2050 stock 56 BEV , 16 FCEV , 28 ICEV 2050 sales 78 BEV; 22 FCEV. o 2050 ton-miles 35 BEV; 34 FCEV; 30 ICEV . Vehicle Sales Energy Share 40 73 143,000 84,000 93,000 68,000 10,000 150,000 153,000 206,000 Energy Share Year ZEVs Reach Cost Parity Average Annual VMT 9 15 16 10 6 8 4 6 1000-1499 0-99 100-249 250-499 500-749 750-999 1500-2000 2000 Shipment Distance Bin [miles] 5-year financial horizon Cost Parity by Distance Bin Heavy TrucksNREL | 23 Impact of Fuel Prices Lowest Cost Technology, 2035, Heavy Trucks, 4/gal diesel In long-distance bins, FCEVs dominate even for low electricity prices if hydrogen prices are below 4–5/kg and charging 1 MW. Effect of 1-MW charging varies depending on daily driving distance, the range of BEVs competing in each shipment distance, and assumptions about monetized charging time. Fuel prices are highly uncertain and charging/refueling solutions will have costs that vary by region and over time. Central assumptions are close to separation line multiple ZEV pathways. Charging speed is also uncertain and will vary by location e.g., depot or public and vehicle. Other factors may influence marginal behavior, resulting in less abrupt transitions between technologies. BEVs tend to outcompete FCEVs on a TCD basis at lower shipment distances, higher charging speeds, and lower electricity prices. 1000 kW 500 kW 1000 kW 500 kW 500 kW 1000 kW Red dot central assumption/p