全球太阳能光伏市场回顾2023（英）--IEA.pdf

fc Snapshot of Global PV Markets 2023 Report IEA-PVPS T1-44:2023 Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and Outreach PVPS Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and Outreach – 2023 Snapshot of Global PV Markets What is IEA PVPS TCP? The International Energy Agency (IEA), founded in 1974, is an autonomous body within the framework of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The Technology Collaboration Programme (TCP) was created with a belief that the future of energy security and sustainability starts with global collaboration. The programme is made up of 6000 experts across government, academia, and industry dedicated to advancing common research and the application of specific energy technologies. The IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (IEA PVPS) is one of the TCPs within the IEA and was established in 1993. The mission of the programme is to “enhance the international collaborative efforts which facilitate the role of photovoltaic solar energy as a cornerstone in the transition to sustainable energy systems.” In order to achieve this, the Programme’s participants have undertaken a variety of joint research projects in PV power systems applications. The overall programme is headed by an Executive Committee, comprised of one delegate from each country or organisation member, which designates distinct ‘Tasks,’ that may be research projects or activity areas. The IEA PVPS participating countries are Australia, Austria, Canada, Chile, China, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Morocco, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Turkey, and the United States of America. The European Commission, Solar Power Europe, the Smart Electric Power Alliance, the Solar Energy Industries Association, the Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore and Enercity SA are also members. Visit us at: www.iea-pvps.org What is IEA PVPS Task 1? The objective of Task 1 of the IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme is promoting and facilitating the exchange and dissemination of information on the technical, economic, environmental and social aspects of PV power systems. Task 1 activities support the broader PVPS objectives: to contribute to cost reduction of PV power applications, to increase awareness of the potential and value of PV power systems, to foster the removal of both technical and non-technical barriers and to enhance technology co-operation. Authors  Data: IEA PVPS Reporting Countries, Becquerel Institute (BE). For the non-IEA PVPS countries: Izumi Kaizuka (RTS Corporation), Arnulf Jäger-Waldau (EU-JRC), Jose Donoso (UNEF).  Analysis: Gaëtan Masson, Elina Bosch, Adrien Van Rechem, Melodie de l’Epine (Becquerel Institute)  Editor: Gaëtan Masson, IEA PVPS Task 1 Manager.  Design: IEA PVPS DISCLAIMER The IEA PVPS TCP is organised under the auspices of the International Energy Agency (IEA) but is functionally and legally autonomous. Views, findings and publications of the IEA PVPS TCP do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the IEA Secretariat or its individual member countries Data for non-IEA PVPS countries are provided by official contacts or experts in the relevant countries. Data are valid at the date of publication and should be considered as estimates in several countries due to the publication date. COVER PICTURE 4.6MW PV system on an old industrial site at Retzwiller (France) image credits : TRYBA ENERGY. ISBN 978-3-907281-43-7: 2023 Snapshot of Global PV Markets INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME IEA PVPS Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and Outreach Report IEA-PVPS T1-44:2023 April 2023 ISBN 978-3-907281-43-7 Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and Outreach – 2023 Snapshot of Global PV Markets 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents 3 Executive Summary 4 1 Snapshot of the Global PV Market in 2022 6 1.1 Evolution of Annual Installations . 6 1.2 Impact of International Trade Disruptions and the Ukraine War 7 1.3 The Top Markets in 2022 8 2 Market Segmentation . 9 3 Cumulative Installed Capacity in the World 10 4 Evolution of Regional PV Installations . 10 5 Limits of Reporting Conventions 12 5.1 Decommissioning, Repowering and Recycling . 12 5.2 AC or DC Numbers? 13 6 Electricity Production from PV . 13 7 Policy strong growth in Europe and to a lesser extent the USA and India account for another 30%. Figure 2 below illustrates the changing dynamics of the global PV market, and the influence of the Chinese PV market, 2 For the purpose of this report, IEA PVPS countries are those that are either member in their own right or through the adhesion of the EC. 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 6 8 17 31 30 38 40 50 77 103 104 111 145 175 240 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 GWp FIGURE 1: EVOLUTION OF ANNUAL PV INSTALLATIONS Non IEA PVPS Countries IEA PVPS Countries Japan USA European Union China Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and Outreach – 2023 Snapshot of Global PV Markets 7 but also the fast pace of growth in India and emerging countries. Japan, once a principal market maintains a steady rhythm of new projects but with no market acceleration as elsewhere. Source: IEA PVPS 1.2 Impact of International Trade Disruptions and the Ukraine War After three years it is still difficult to precisely quantify the impacts of the pandemic. Of the principal markets, only India showed a contraction in 2020, and all other principal markets showed growth through 2020 to 2022 despite significant disruption to the supply chain and trade with increases in polysilicon, glass, aluminium, steel, and freight costs, and hence module and system costs. In parallel, since early 2022 the political tensions in Europe and resulting reduced gas acquisitions have resulted in much higher wholesale and domestic electricity prices, not just in Europe but across a range of other countries as far as Australia. The increase in costs, especially in 2022, do not seem to have slowed growth in PV markets apart from in India (where red tape constraints can explain much of the delays), although in some countries especially in Europe very competitive medium and large-scale systems were cancelled or put on hold as their business models couldn’t hold up to increased costs. It is highly possible that stable costs could have led to faster growth rates, although, considering manufacturing capacity, there may have still been prices rises on polysilicon, even if new manufacturing plans had been launched earlier. By mid-2022 transport and material costs were mostly stabilising, and PV markets continued to grow. Overall, it is difficult to distinguish if this acceleration effect is stronger or weaker than the braking effect of higher PV hardware prices. 8 20 33 30 38 15 14 11 17 14 11 10 4 13 18 7 7 9 7 7 11 12 20 27 19 8 17 20 27 38.7 44 30 48 55 106.0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 GWp FIGURE 2: 2018-2022 GROWTH PER REGION Other countries Other IEA PVPS countries India Japan USA European Union China Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and Outreach – 2023 Snapshot of Global PV Markets 8 The enhanced PV competitiveness in many countries has brought grid parity to a much larger range of segments than even 18 months ago, from domestic systems to utility scale systems, with impacts on policy and financing mechanisms that are discussed in Section 7. The resiliency of the PV market despite the major economic and logistic disruptions is remarkable and shows the potential of the technology to limit economic downturns and social damage brought on by regional or worldwide upheaval. Green recovery plans and better regulations could propel the PV industry far beyond the current installation trends to meet the Paris Climate Agreement. 1.3 The Top Markets in 2022 The Chinese market grew again at a remarkable rate and installed 106 GW in 2022 (up from 55 GW in 2021), or 44% of the global market. With 38,9 GW of annual installations the European Union ranked second followed by the USA where an estimated 18,6 GW were installed, a market hit by trade disputes and grid connection backlogs, followed by India with an increased market of 18,1 GW. Brazil comes in fourth with an estimated 9,9 GW, the most dynamic market in Latin America. Note: The European Union grouped 27 European countries in 2022, out of which Germany, Spain, France, the Netherlands and Italy also appear in the Top Ten, either for the installed capacity or the annual installations. The European Commission is a member of IEA-PVPS through its Joint Research Centre (EU-JRC). Source: IEA PVPS To reach the Top Ten for new capacity in 2022, countries needed to install at least 3 GW of PV systems (compared to 1,5 GW in 2018). Korea and France gave way to Poland and the Netherlands despite reasonable performance. The Top Ten of total cumulative installed capacities shows more inertia due to past levels of installations: France exited the Top Ten for cumulative installed capacity in 2022 and was replaced by Italy that is now back in the Top Ten. There remains a significant gap between the first five and the next five; Australia, Spain, Italy, Korea and Brazil have very similar cumulative capacities of between 20 GW and 30 GW, under half as much as number five, Germany. Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and Outreach – 2023 Snapshot of Global PV Markets 9 2 MARKET SEGMENTATION Preliminary data indicates that in absolute terms, both rooftop and utility scale segments grew in 2022. Market segments were balanced, with 48% of new capacity on rooftops. The share of the rooftop segment has been growing continuously since 2018 as markets open in new countries and decreasing costs makes it more accessible for residential and commercial investors, with notable volumes (2,5 GW) and market shares in China, Brazil, and Germany as well as Poland and Australia. On both segments new applications are in growth; from BIPV in the rooftop segment to utility scale floating PV. Still marginal but growing, agrivoltaic projects and BIPV are as yet hard to quantify, as are VIPV/VAPV 3 volumes (PV integrated in vehicles) although they are expected to develop well in the coming years. Technological evolutions, such as bifacial PV will also impact the development of these new market segments. Source: IEA PVPS, Becquerel Institute 3 BIPV – Building Integrated PV; VIPV – Vehicle Integrated PV; VAPV - Vehicle Integrated PV 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 GWp FIGURE 4: SEGMENTATION OF PV INSTALLATION 2013 - 2022 ROOFTOP UTILITY SCALE