欧洲户用储能市场展望2022-2026（英）-欧洲光伏行业协会.pdf

European Market Outlook For Residential Battery Storage 2022–2026 GRID GOES OFF. SUN GOES DOWN. LIFE CARRIES ON. Scan here to find out more www.solaredge.com Facing soaring electricity costs and potentially unstable grids, more and more homeowners are installing SolarEdge Home to achieve energy independence. This complete smart energy ecosystem enables you to produce, store and manage solar energy more efficiently and cost-effectively than ever before. The SolarEdge Home Hub inverter provides PV, storage, and backup, suitable for single and three phase residential installations and is compatible with our SolarEdge Home Battery 400V and 48V. Plus there’s a full suite of smart energy devices that let you grow your SolarEdge Home as your energy needs evolve. And the mySolarEdge app puts all that power in your hands. All from the world’s #1 inverter company! 3 Foreword Welcome to our European Market Outlook for Residential Battery Storage 2022-2026. With an unprecedented energy crisis in Europe driving skyrocketing electricity costs, citizens are increasingly looking at home solar power generation as a key tool to gain control of their energy bills. More and more, the climate crisis context causes citizens to turn their back on the predominance of polluting and costly fossil fuels, while river droughts and ageing fleets challenge the reliability of existing nuclear power plants. As citizens seek to hedge on their energy supply, the distributed solar rooftop boom brings with it something that seems to be often overlooked in policy circles – a massive growth in residential battery energy storage (R-BESS). Our latest market outlook shows a R-BESS market that more than doubled in 2021 to 2.3 GWh, after the 1 GWh annual installation level was first reached in 2020. In 2022, our most-likely Medium Scenario forecasts another spectacular growth year – the addition of 71% more capacity of 3.9 GWh, which would lead to a total installed R-BESS capacity of 9.3 GWh in Europe. To put this into more tangible numbers – we estimate Europe will install over 420,000 storage batteries in 2022, resulting in more than 1 million homes across the continent powered with joint solar PV Austria (AT); EDORA APSTE (BG); SEAPEK (CY); Solární Asociace (CZ); BSW-Solar (DE); European Energy (DK); HELAPCO (GR); MANAP (HU); ISEA (IR); Anie Rinnovabili, Elettricità Futura REWS (MT); Polskie Stowarzyszenie Fotowoltaiki (PSF) APREN (PT); RPIA (RO); SAPI (SK); ZSFV (SI); UNEF (ES); Svensk Solenergi (SE); Solar Energy UK (UK). Contact: info@solarpowereurope.org. Please cite as: SolarPower Europe (2022): European Market Outlook for Residential Battery Storage 2022-2026. Published: December 2022. ISBN: 9789464669008. Design: Onehemisphere, Sweden, contact@onehemisphere.se. Methodology: SolarPower Europe’s five-year forecast consists of Low, Medium and High scenarios. The Medium Scenario anticipates the most likely development given the current state of play of the market. The Low Scenario forecast is based on the assumption that policymakers halt solar and storage support and other issues arise, including interest rate hikes and severe financial crisis situations. Conversely, the High Scenario forecasts the best optimal case in which policy support, financial conditions and other factors are enhanced. Residential solar and storage systems are defined as installations with a PV capacity below 10 kW. SolarPower Europe’s methodology includes only grid- connected systems. Installed PV capacity is always expressed in DC. All figures are based on SolarPower Europe’s best knowledge at the time of publication. Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by SolarPower Europe. It is being furnished to the recipients for general information only. Nothing in it should be interpreted as an offer or recommendation of any products, services or financial products. This report does not constitute technical, investment, legal, tax or any other advice. Recipients should consult with their own technical, financial, legal, tax or other advisors as needed. This report is based on sources believed to be accurate. However, SolarPower Europe does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this report. SolarPower Europe assumes no obligation to update any information contained herein. SolarPower Europe will not be held liable for any direct or indirect damage incurred by the use of the information provided and will not provide any indemnities. Unless otherwise stated, the copyright and other intellectual property rights of market intelligence data and resources provided are owned by SolarPower Europe. European Market Outlook For Residential Battery Storage 2022–2026 5 Executive summary In a period characterised by a drastic rise in household electricity prices across Europe, residential battery energy storage systems (R-BESS) have become an attractive means to reduce electricity bills and increase energy resilience while lowering carbon footprints. In 2021, with 2.3 GWh installed over the course of the year, the European residential battery market grew 107% from 2020, resulting in a total operating fleet of more than 650,000 units with a cumulative capacity of 5.4 GWh. For the second year in a row, the home storage growth path in Europe turned out to be significantly higher than what we had previously forecasted, with the uptake of home storage technology going beyond the highest expectations. In fact, the growth in the market could have been even larger, if it were not for a severe shortage of batteries that limited the possibility to meet customer demand and led to lengthy delays of several months to get products installed. The rise of R-BESS is a consequence of the great synergy with solar PV installations, as it extends the usage and application of solar power. The recent growth of the residential solar market across Europe has created the foundation for R-BESS market expansion, even more so considering that the average attachment rate between BESS and PV has grown from grown from 23% in 2020 to 27% in 2021. Although more and more national markets are looking at solar b. At the member state level, policymakers must establish the conditions for a rapid storage uptake, in particular residential solar and also, for the first time, more than 100,000 battery units were installed in one single year. In 2021, the home battery market entered a new phase. With more than 2 GWh installed over the course of the year, the market basically doubled compared to the previous year – to be precise, it grew 107% (Fig. 2.1). Such a steep level of growth hadn’t been registered since 2014; but back then, the market was significantly smaller and had increased to just 64 MWh compared to 30 MWh the year before. To put this into perspective, the size of the R-BESS market in 2021 was 35 times larger than in 2014. That year, only about 9,000 batteries were installed, while in 2021 about 260,000 units have been added. Remarkably, the growth in the market could have been even larger, if it were not for a severe shortage of batteries Residential solar and storage markets in Europe 2021 2 © Tesla FIGURE 2.1 EUROPE RESIDENTIAL BESS ANNUAL MARKET 2013-2021 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 MWh 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20212013 2014 30 64 119 203 59% 46% 107% 344 1,109 2,294 477 760 © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2022 limiting the possibility to meet customer demand and causing, months-long, lengthy delays to install R-BESS products. This issue was particularly felt in less developed markets, where the sudden spike in demand caught distributors by surprise as they struggled to find products for their clients. Even mature R-BESS markets have been suffering from a lack of batteries, which continue to be the missing product link for solar system technology after modules shortages have been solved and inverter shortages are being addressed. Over the last years, the continent relied on a handful of R-BESS pioneers, primarily Europe’s largest solar market Germany, which is also the country with the largest R-BESS installed residential battery storage volume by far. In Germany, home storage started first gaining traction after it switched from a full Feed-in Tariff (FIT) scheme to a model supporting self- consumption, in combination with a premium for excess power, and backed by an attractive R-BESS subsidy programme of its development bank KfW that was slowly phased out. Later, home battery markets started to emerge as well in a few other countries – Italy, the United Kingdom, and Austria – while hardly any capacity was installed in the rest of Europe. Today, R- BESS technology applications can be seen in a quickly growing number of European countries, and, as volatile energy prices reaching unknown heights are severely affecting households across the whole continent, the home storage business case is becoming appealing in many different European regions. For the second year in a row, the home storage growth path in Europe turned out to be significantly higher than what we had previously forecasted. In last year’s edition of this report, we assumed the market would grow 28% to 1.4 GWh. The positive evolution of the market conditions exceeded even our most optimistic expectations: our High Scenario anticipated 1.8 GWh of annually installed capacity; actual installations were 27% higher. The exceptional increase in the annual market is well reflected in the growth of the total operating home storage capacity. The residential BESS fleet jumped from just over 3.1 GWh in 2020 to 5.4 GWh in 2021, with a 74% year-on-year increase (see Fig. 2.2). Unlike last year, the annual market growth rate is higher than the growth rate in cumulative capacity, a sign that the total operating fleet has reached substantial volumes and the technology is entering a new deployment phase. Total R-BESS capacity has grown 13 times its size, compared to just five years ago. European Market Outlook For Residential Battery Storage 2022–2026 11 FIGURE 2.2 EUROPE RESIDENTIAL BESS CUMULATIVE MARKET 2013-2021 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 MWh 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20212013 2014 30 94 213 416 760 5,400 61% 56% 74% 1,237 1,997 3,106 © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2022 2 Residential solar and storage markets in Europe 2021 / continued European Market Outlook For Residential Battery Storage 2022–202612 An important aspect to highlight is that the attachment rate between home storage systems and residential PV systems is rising. In 2021, for every new 10 residential PV systems installed across Europe, 2.7 home batteries were installed (Fig. 2.3). However, it should be specified that not all new batteries are installed together with a new PV system, as some users already equipped with residential solar decide to retrofit their existing PV system with a new battery at a later stage So far, R-BESS retrofit activity had been negligible compared to new installations in the past. But the strong rise in electricity prices, and an increasing number of solar-only systems exiting their long-term full feed-in tariff contracts, will have this segment become notable as well. However, as long as there is a shortage of product and installers, the sales preference of installers is to build solar but the aggregate capacity installed in 2021 by over 30 countries remains below the annual additions of Europe’s second largest market, Italy. Emerging markets that are set to play a bigger role include Spain and Poland, who are both characterised by thriving residential PV markets – though the latter is presently much larger than the former in absolute terms. As the attractiveness of self-consumption in these two markets is beginning to have a positive impact on batteries as well, they are expected to become important players in the European context. In 2021, however, their combined annual market share © SolarEdge 2 Residential solar and storage markets in Europe 2021 / continued European Market Outlook For Residential Battery Storage 2022–202616 Looking at the next five years, the question is not whether the residential BESS market will continue its upwards path, but rather how steep the growth curve will be. In recent times, the rapid development of battery storage caught everyone by surprise, overshooting expectations by a large margin. The current political and economic environment, characterised by high electricity prices and energy security concerns, has strongly improved the case for home storage in Europe – both from a business and a psychological point of view. As the COVID-19 recovery packages and other measures contrasting the energy crisis become available to Europeans households, we expect the R-BESS market to maintain a sustained growth path. After the European residential battery market passed 1 GWh in 2020 and 2 GWh in 2021, our Medium Scenario expects 3.9 GWh to be installed in 2022, up 71% from the year before (Figure 3.1). Compared to last year’s outlook, we have significantly revised upwards our expectations: the 2022 market size we forecast this year stands above the 2025 High Scenario we anticipated one year ago. Following a steep two-digit growth trajectory, our revised Medium Scenario forecasts R-BESS deployment of 4.5 GWh in 2023, 5.1 GWh in 2024, 6.0 GWh in 2025 and 7.3 GWh in 2026. FIGURE 3.1 EUROPE RESIDENTIAL BESS ANNUAL SCENARIOS 2022-2026 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 GWh Historical data Low Scenario High Scenario Medium Scenario 2022 2023 2024 2025 20262017 2018 2019 2020 2021 71% 11% 19% 22% 16% 2.3 11.3 5.2 3.0 4.5 © SOLARPOWER EUROPE 2022 Residential solar and storage markets in Europe 2022-2026 3 ©Solarwatt European Market Outlook For Residential Battery Storage 2022–2026 17 In the short term, much will depend on how fast the current key bottleneck for this segment, the shortage of battery product supply, can be addressed. Europe is strongly dependent on R-BESS products from Asian suppliers; even European R-BESS manufacturers mostly assemble their systems using imported battery cells. The shortage has been so acute that the first major vertically-integrated Chinese solar module manufacturers have expanded into battery cell production. As the transition of the car industry to EVs gains speed, there is fierce competition for many of the raw materials needed to produce lithium-ion batteries, as the technology used in both industries – and this competition won’t go away this year or the next, despite rapid expansion of gigantic battery cell manufacturing capacities. However, more BESS product has been available in 2022 than the previous year, and we expect volumes to increase also in the coming years of this overview, even though the shortage will again limit R-BESS growth in 2023. However, the desire for energy security through batteries is often so strong that people installing solar now, already prepare their system with hybrid inverters that enable eventual delivery of a R-BESS system. In the medium to long term, it will