全球太阳能光伏应用趋势2022（英）-IEA.pdf

Task 1 Strategic PV Analysis and Outreach PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2022 REPORT IEA PVPS T1-43:2022 PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS TECHNOLOGY COLLABORATION PROGRAMME WHAT IS IEA PVPS TCP? The International Energy Agency (IEA), founded in 1974, is an autonomous body within the framework of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The Technology Collaboration Programme (TCP) was created with a belief that the future of energy security and sustainability starts with global collaboration. The programme is made up of thousands of experts across government, academia, and industry dedicated to advancing common research and the application of specific energy technologies. The IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (IEA PVPS) is one of the TCP’s within the IEA and was established in 1993. The mission of the programme is to “enhance the international collaborative efforts which facilitate the role of photovoltaic solar energy as a cornerstone in the transition to sustainable energy systems.” In order to achieve this, the Programme’s participants have undertaken a variety of joint research projects in PV power systems applications. The overall programme is headed by an Executive Committee, comprised of one delegate from each country or organisation member, which designates distinct ‘Tasks,’ that may be research projects or activity areas. This report has been prepared under Task 1, which deals with market and industry analysis, strategic research and facilitates the exchange and dissemination of information arising from the overall IEA PVPS Programme. The IEA PVPS participating countries are Australia, Austria, Canada, Chile, China, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Turkey, and the United States of America. The European Commission, Solar Power Europe, the Smart Electric Power Alliance (SEPA), the Solar Energy Industries Association and the Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore are also members. Visit us at: www.iea-pvps.org AUTHORS Main Authors: Gaëtan Masson (Becquerel Institute), Izumi Kaizuka (RTS Corporation). Analysis: Izumi Kaizuka (RTS Corporation), Elina Bosch, Gaëtan. Masson (Becquerel Institute), Caroline Plaza (Becquerel Institute France), Alessandra Scognamiglio (ENEA), Arnulf Jäger-Waldau (EU-JRC), Johan Lindahl (Becquerel Institute Sweden), Eddy Blokken (SERIS). Data: IEA PVPS Reporting Countries, Becquerel Institute (BE), RTS Corporation (JP) and Arnulf Jaeger-Waldau (EU-JRC), For the non-IEA PVPS countries UNEF (ES). For the other European Union countries: EU-JRC. For floating PV data: SERIS (SG). For the non-IEA PVPS countries: BSW, UNEF. Editor: Gaëtan Masson, IEA PVPS Task 1 Manager. Design: Boheem DISCLAIMER The IEA PVPS TCP is organised under the auspices of the International Energy Agency (IEA) but is functionally and legally autonomous. Views, findings and publications of the IEA PVPS TCP do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the IEA Secretariat or its individual member countries Data for non-IEA PVPS countries are provided by official contacts or experts in the relevant countries. Data are valid at the date of publication and should be considered as estimates in several countries due to the publication date. ISBN ISBN 978-3-907281-35-2: Trends in Photovoltaic Applications 2022. 1 IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2022 REPORT SCOPE AND OBJECTIVES The Trends report’s objective is to present and interpret developments in the PV power systems market and the evolving applications for these products within this market. These trends are analysed in the context of the business, policy and nontechnical environment in the reporting countries. This report is prepared to assist those who are responsible for developing the strategies of businesses and public authorities, and to support the development of medium-term plans for electricity utilities and other providers of energy services. It also provides guidance to government officials responsible for setting energy policy and preparing national energy plans. The scope of the report is limited to PV applications with a rated power of 40 W or more. National data supplied are as accurate as possible at the time of publication. Data accuracy on production levels and system prices varies, depending on the willingness of the relevant national PV industry to provide data. This report presents the results of the 25th international survey. It provides an overview of PV power systems applications, markets and production in the reporting countries and elsewhere at the end of 2021 and analyses trends in the implementation of PV power systems between 1992 and 2021. Key data for this publication were drawn mostly from national survey reports and information summaries, which were supplied by representatives from each of the reporting countries. Information from the countries outside IEA PVPS are drawn from a variety of sources and, while every attempt is made to ensure their accuracy, the validity of some of these data cannot be assured with the same level of confidence as for IEA PVPS member countries. ACKNOWLEDGMENT This report has been prepared under the supervision by Task 1 participants. A special thanks to all of them. The report authors also gratefully acknowledge special support of Eddy Blokken from SERIS. IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2022 2 FOREWORD The annual PV market reached 175 GW worldwide in 2021. While the world was facing the second year of a pandemic and despite the end-of-year disruptions in Asia, the photovoltaic market continued growing. Without these drawbacks, it probably could have reached 200 GW. This is an exceptional result: 945,7 GW of PV power plants were producing electricity worldwide at the end of the year, of which around 70% have been installed during the last five years. Over the years, an increasing number of markets have started contributing to global PV installations, and 2021 closed with a record number of new countries installing significant numbers of PV. The upward trend in module prices observed at the global level at the end of 2021, related to stress on several raw materials markets, has not affected the competitiveness and development of the market. PV’s role in the global transition to low-carbon energy is confirmed. 1200 TWh are produced annually by PV plants, the equivalent of the combined annual consumption of Germany, France, Spain, and Belgium. The PV capacity globally avoided no less than one billion tons of CO2, equating roughly to 3% of annual global emissions, which reached 33 Gt in 2021. PV is thus already a key decarbonization power source. The rapid decline in PV prices over the past years, despite the conjectural recent price increase, has enabled PV systems to achieve competitive prices in several countries. The possibility of developing photovoltaic systems with limited or no financial incentives is now an observable reality. Long-term private contracts (PPA) and the sale of electricity on wholesale markets have been observed in an increasing number of countries in 2021. This growing competitiveness has also boosted the share of PV installations operating under self-consumption without any financial support mechanism. If electricity prices should remain at the high level experienced in 2022 in several places around the world in 2022, especially in Europe, the question of competitiveness would change completely: without any support scheme limitations, the potential of the PV market seems virtually unlimited. With this broader integration, the question of access, management, and financing of the grid will become a key challenge. The electrification of the transport sector, as well as storage capacities and the production of green hydrogen, will increase the demand for low-carbon electricity. The competitiveness also paves the way for further integration in buildings, vehicles, infrastructure, and cross-cutting applications with nearly every energy-consuming sector. One of the most promising hybrid segments is called AgriPV, which combines agriculture with energy production. While still a niche market at this point, AgriPV shows significant development potential. The social acceptance of the energy transition is a major issue and is becoming a key subject for the development of PV. It is multifaceted: economic, social, societal, and environmental, but also aesthetic. PV is a major contributor on the road to sustainability: the nature of the energy transformation, and the acceptance of change are essential elements in the success of this revolution: dealing with the number of jobs concerned, the impact on the environment and the social aspects linked to the development of PV has become unavoidable. Ensuring a local development of the PV industry and improving the use of resources is part of the response to the need for PV to be more virtuous than the energy sources that it replaces. In 2022, photovoltaic technology has become increasingly a source of affordable, local, and low-carbon energy. In the context of geopolitical tensions and resource scarcity, PV could become a stabilization element, promoting peace through reduced tensions in energy markets while accelerating the development of the world. Gaëtan Masson Manager Task 1 IEA PVPS Programme Daniel Mugnier Chair IEA PVPS Programme 3 IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2022 TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD 2 INTRODUCTION TO THE CONCEPTS AND METHODOLOGY 5 PV TECHNOLOGY 5 PV APPLICATIONS AND MARKET SEGMENTS 6 METHODOLOGY FOR THE MAIN PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS 8 PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT TRENDS 9 THE GLOBAL PV INSTALLED CAPACITY 9 PV MARKET SEGMENTS 16 EMERGING PV MARKET SEGMENTS 19 OFF-GRID MARKET DEVELOPMENT 22 PV DEVELOPMENT PER REGION 22 POLICY FRAMEWORK 31 PV MARKET DRIVERS AND SUPPORT SCHEMES 33 PROSUMERS AND ENERGY COMMUNITIES’ POLICIES 38 ENERGY TRANSITION POLITICS 40 INDUSTRIAL AND MANUFACTURING POLICIES 42 TRENDS IN PV INDUSTRY 43 THE UPSTREAM PV SECTOR 43 THE DOWNSTREAM PV SECTOR 53 SOCIETAL IMPLICATIONS OF PV AND ACCEPTANCE 55 ACCEPTANCE OF PV DEPLOYMENT 55 CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION 57 VALUE FOR THE ECONOMY 58 AESTHETICS AND LANDSCAPE 64 COMPETITIVENESS OF PV ELECTRICITY IN 2021 65 MODULE PRICES 65 SYSTEM PRICES 68 COST OF PV ELECTRICITY 70 PV IN THE ENERGY SECTOR 75 PV ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION 75 PV INTEGRATION AND SECTOR COUPLING 79 ANNEXES 81 LIST OF FIGURES 84 LIST OF TABLES 85 4 TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS // 2022 PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME WWW.IEA-PVPS.ORG TOTAL BUSINESS VALUE IN PV SECTOR IN 2021 $190 BILLION USD TOP 5 CHINAEUUSA INDIA JAPAN 54.9 GW 28.7 GW 26.9 GW 13.4 GW 6.6 GW PV CONTRIBUTION TO ELECTRICITY DEMAND 5% Share of PV in the global electricity demand in 2021 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS 1060 million tons of CO2 saved in 2021 GLOBAL PV CAPACITY END OF 2021 PV PENETRATION PER CAPITA IN 2021 1011 0 or NA PV penetration (Wp/capita) 506 YEARLY PV INSTALLATION, MODULE PV PRODUCTION AND MODULE PRODUCTION CAPACITY 2011-2021 (GW) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 20212020201920182017201620152014201320122011 GW Total module production capacityTotal module PV productionYearly PV installations PV MARKETS IN 2021 42 COUNTRIES REACHED AT LEAST 1 GWp IN 2021 18 COUNTRIES INSTALLED AT LEAST 1 GWp IN 2021 SOURCE IEA PVPS including PV facades, sloped and flat roof mountings, integrated (opaque or semi-transparent) glass-glass modules and PV tiles. Single or two-axis tracking systems have recently become more and more attractive for ground-mounted systems, particularly for PV utilization in countries with a high share of direct irradiation. By using such systems, the energy yield can typically be increased by 10-20% for single axis trackers and 20-30% for double axis trackers compared with fixed systems. PV APPLICATIONS AND MARKET SEGMENTS When considering distributed PV systems, it is necessary to distinguish BAPV (building applied photovoltaics) and BIPV (buildings integrated photovoltaics) systems. BAPV refers to PV systems installed on an existing building while BIPV imposes to replace conventional building materials by some which include PV cells. Amongst BIPV solutions, PV tiles, or PV shingles, are typically small, rectangular solar panels that can be installed alongside conventional tiles or slates using a traditional racking system used for this type of building product. BIPV products can take various shapes, colours and be manufactured using various materials, although a vast majority use glass on both sides. They can be assembled in a way that they fill multiple functions usually devoted to conventional building envelope solutions. Bifacial PV modules collect light on both sides of the panel. Depending on the reflection of the ground underneath the modules (albedo), the energy production increase is estimated to a maximum of 15% with a fixed structure, and possibly up to 30-35% with a single-axis system. Bifacial modules have a growing competitive advantage despite higher overall installation costs. Indeed, recent competitive projects in desert areas boosted the market confidence in bifacial PV performance and production lines are increasingly moving towards bifacial modules. The additional factors affecting bifacial performance into their models are also better understood and integrated in the downstream industry. Bifacial PV panels have gained traction again in 2021 and are expected to take growing market shares in the coming years for utility-scale applications. PV TECHNOLOGY / CONTINUED 7 IEA PVPS TRENDS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS 2022 Floating PV systems are mounted on a structure that floats on a water surface and can be associated with existing grid connections for instance in the case of dam vicinity. The development of floating PV on man-made water areas is a solution to land scarcity in high population density areas and can be combined with hydropower. Agricultural PV combine crops and energy production on the same site. The sharing of light between these two types of production potentially allows a higher crop yield, depending on the climate and the selection of the crop variety and can even be mutually beneficial in some cases, as the water which evaporates from the crops can contribute to a reduction of PV modules operating temperature. PV thermal hybrid solar installations (PVT) combine a solar module with a solar thermal collector, thereby converting sunlight into electricity and capturing the remaining waste heat from the PV module to produce hot water or feed the central heating system. It also allows to reduce the operating temperature of the modules, which benefits the global performances of the system. VIPV or vehicle integrated PV. The integration of solar cells into the shell of the vehicles allow for emissions reductions in the mobility sector. The solar cell technological devel