全球能源转型指南：电力部门——进展要点（英）-RMI .pdf

Points of Progress An Introduction to RMI’s Global Energy Transformation Guide: Electricity November 2022 G L O B A L GUIDE rmi.org / 2Points of Progress About RMI RMI is an independent nonprofit founded in 1982 that transforms global energy systems through market-driven solutions to align with a 1.5°C future and secure a clean, prosperous, zero-carbon future for all. We work in the world’s most critical geographies and engage businesses, policymakers, communities, and NGOs to identify and scale energy system interventions that will cut greenhouse gas emissions at least 50 percent by 2030. RMI has offices in Basalt and Boulder, Colorado; New York City; Oakland, California; Washington, D.C.; and Beijing. G L O B A L GUIDE rmi.org / 3Points of Progress Cara Goldenberg Leia Guccione Genevieve Lillis Carina Rosenbach Authors listed alphabetically. Contacts Cara Goldenberg, cgoldenberg@rmi.org Genevieve Lillis, genlillis@rmi.org Copyrights and Citation Cara Goldenberg, Genevieve Lillis, Leia Guccione, and Carina Rosenbach, Points of Progress — An Introduction to RMI’s Global Energy Transformation Guide: Electricity, RMI, 2022, https://rmi.org/ insight/points-of-progress. RMI values collaboration and aims to accelerate the energy transition through sharing knowledge and insights. We therefore allow interested parties to reference, share, and cite our work through the Creative Commons CC BY-SA 4.0 license. https://creativecommons. org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/. All images used are from iStock.com unless otherwise noted. Authors G L O B A L GUIDE rmi.org / 4Points of Progress The authors thank the following individuals from RMI for their helpful insights and/or feedback on this report. All errors remain our own. Kaitlyn Bunker Mark Dyson Rachel Gold Jagabanta Ningthouham Vikram Singh Matt Sugihara Qin Zhou Acknowledgments G L O B A L GUIDE rmi.org / 5Points of Progress About This Report. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Transforming the Global Power Sector . . . 8 Seven Priority Outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Ensure a Fair and Inclusive Energy Transition . . . . 26 Expand Access and Enable Economic Development . 26 Promote Affordability and Equity . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Create a System Poised for Sustainable Growth . . 36 Ensure Energy Reliability and Resilience . . . . . . . . 36 Secure Utility Financial Stability . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Increase Efficient Utilization of Clean Assets . . . . 45 Improve Energy Intensity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Accelerate Clean Energy Adoption . . . . . . . . . . . 48 Reduce Dependence on Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 Catalysts for Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 Endnotes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 Table of Contents G L O B A L GUIDE rmi.org / 6Points of Progress About This Report This is the first report in RMI’s Global Energy Transformation Guide: Electricity (“Global Guide”) series, which is a research endeavor aimed at understanding the leading edge of innovation for forward-thinking electricity system transitions around the world. The primary objective of the Global Guide is to assess new developments to secure universal access to reliable, affordable, and clean electricity by identifying key trends, exploring emerging challenges and opportunities, and sharing success stories from electricity system leaders. These include efforts spanning from a new regional electricity market in the Sahel to an innovative strategy to transition away from a coal power purchase agreement in Chile. By documenting these points of progress, the Global Guide intends to support leaders who are seeking guidance on how to simultaneously expand energy access and promote sustainable development while decarbonizing their power sector to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. This report describes the challenge ahead and introduces key elements of the framework used to guide our research, including seven key outcomes and eight catalysts for change, which are high-impact levers available to electricity sector leaders across countries to transform the power sector. The accompanying reports G L O B A L GUIDE rmi.org / 7Points of Progress in this series provide more detailed discussion on specific catalysts, including the innovation edge for each and where leadership is needed most. The eight catalysts our research has shown to have the greatest potential to support electricity system transformation include: 1. Market Structures 2. Fossil Fuel Transition Strategies 3. System Planning and Procurement 4. Public Policies 5. Customer Solutions 6. Accessible Finance 7. Utility Incentive Structures 8. Carbon-Free Technology Our research included interviews with over 85 experts from around the globe, including utilities, regulators, businesses, system operators, customers, and academics, to understand the drivers of innovation in different geographies. We focused the scope on innovations in the power sector given the essential role electricity plays in modern life and countries’ economies, as well as its importance to meeting economy-wide decarbonization goals. G L O B A L GUIDE rmi.org / 8Points of Progress Transforming the Global Power Sector Electricity is the cornerstone of economic development and human prosperity. Reliable access to affordable and clean electricity unlocks the potential to meet foundational socioeconomic needs, advancing goals for industrialization, public health, education, water and sanitation, comfort, and equity. Historically, economic growth and higher living standards have been coupled with an increase in electricity demand, and thus an increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. As a result, the electricity sector is the largest source of GHG emissions today, responsible for 42% of emissions globally. 1 This trend also explains why cumulative power sector emissions are largely concentrated in the most affluent economies. In 2020, the United States, the European Union (EU), and other countries in Europe made up 57% of global cumulative electricity sector emissions alone. 2,i Exhibit 1 (next page) shows per capita electricity use, gross domestic product (GDP), and cumulative emissions in 2019 for a subset of countries. As shown, higher GDP is directly correlated with higher electricity consumption and emissions (represented by the size of the circle). G L O B A L GUIDE i Cumulative emissions represent the sum of a country’s historical emissions and each country’s total contribution to climate change over time. This metric is important because carbon emissions remain in the atmosphere for hundreds of years. Several of the largest emitting countries today (e.g., India and Brazil) are not major contributors to the historical accumulation of carbon in the atmosphere. rmi.org / 9Points of Progress GUIDE Exhibit 1 Correlation between Electricity Use, GDP, and Emissions 500 2,000 10,000 50,000 200,000 1,000 3,000 10,000 30,000 100,000 300,000 Bubble size indicates emissions Turkey Saudi Arabia Russia United Kingdom Germany Australia United States SingaporeCanada Qatar Luxembourg Trinidad and Tobago Estonia China Poland Brazil Peru South Africa Iran Jordan Indonesia Uzbekistan Tajikistan Tajikistan Cambodia India Myanmar Nepal Kenya Sudan Mali Rwanda Niger Guinea Uganda GDP Per Capita (2019, US$) Electricity Use P er Capit a (2019, Kilow att -Hours [kWh]) Source: EIA, International Energy Data; BP, Statistical Review of World Energy; University of Groningen, Maddison Project Database 2020; World Bank, CO 2 emissions per capita; World Bank, GDP per capita; World Bank, Databank World Development Indicators G L O B A L GUIDE rmi.org / 10Points of Progress Today, political leaders and other decision makers across all economies are being challenged to immediately reduce or limit emissions to prevent the most harmful impacts of climate change. The latest International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report makes clear that to stay within 1.5°C of warming, global emissions must peak by 2025 and decrease 43% from 2019 levels by 2030. However, despite existing commitments to reduce GHG emissions, the world is not on track to meet this target. Current emissions trends are pointing toward a 2.7°C average temperature increase this century. 3 Simultaneously, there is still a need to expand energy access to a large portion of the world. Although the absolute number of people without access to electricity has declined from 1.2 billion in 2010 to 733 million in 2020, 9% of the global population still lacks access. To put this in perspective, to achieve universal electricity access by 2030, 100 million people need to gain access every year. 4 Exhibit 2 (next page) shows the share of population with electricity access across regions over the past 25 years. A much larger number, an estimated 3.5 billion people, lack access to reliable electricity service (the majority residing in sub-Saharan Africa), significantly limiting the benefits electricity can offer. 5 Even in countries that have relatively reliable access to electricity, escalating weather-driven events, disruptions in global energy markets due to Russia’s war on Ukraine and ongoing issues with energy technology supply chains due to COVID-19 have recently exposed significant vulnerabilities of the electricity sector, especially the inability of fossil fuels to deliver reliable power under times of grid or market distress. These challenges have resurfaced concerns around energy independence and the opportunity to deploy domestic resources to ensure security and affordability of electricity. Delivering affordable, reliable, and secure access to electricity while also meeting the world’s climate targets requires a transformation in the ways electricity is supplied, delivered, and used across G L O B A L GUIDE rmi.org / 11Points of Progress % of Population 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 0 20 40 60 80 100 Latin America and Caribbean East Asia and Pacific Middle East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia Europe, Central Asia, and North America Exhibit 2 Share of Population with Electricity Access by Region Source: World Bank, Access to Electricity (% of Population) G L O B A L GUIDE There is still a need to expand energy access to a large portion of the world. To achieve universal electricity access by 2030, 100 million people need to gain access every year. rmi.org / 12Points of Progress the globe. The actions that many advanced economies need to take today are likely going to look different from those in emerging markets and developing economies, which are facing immediate human development (e.g., food security, education, medical care, income) and local economic needs while concurrently managing climate impacts and risks. Actions also will need to reach beyond borders, with higher-income countries using their resources to not only dramatically reduce domestic emissions, but also to mobilize wide-scale finance for clean technology deployment around the world. And although there is not yet a globally unified front on electricity decarbonization pathways and timelines, there is a growing number of national, subnational, and corporate commitments to reducing emissions and emerging opportunities for economies to work together in pursuit of an equitable transformation of the global power sector. G L O B A L GUIDE rmi.org / 13Points of Progress Exhibit 3 Declining Renewable Energy Costs and New Coal Capacity Source: BloombergNEF, 2H 2021 Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE); Global Energy Monitor, Global Coal Plant Tracker Fixed-Axis Photovoltaic (PV) LCOE ($/Megawatt-Hours [MWh]) Tracking PV Onshore Wind Of_fshore Wind (Megawatts [MW]) 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2021 0 100 200 300 400 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 New Coal Capacity G L O B A L GUIDE Fortunately, increases in energy efficiency, the acceleration of electrification, and the growing use of cost-effective renewable energy are creating new pathways for countries to sustainably grow at the same time they advance critical environmental and societal objectives. These potential objectives include expanding domestic workforces, supporting local procurement and supply chains, and improving communities’ livelihoods. Exhibit 3 shows the decline in global renewable energy costs from 2010 to 2021 and the corresponding general decline in new coal capacity over the same period. rmi.org / 14Points of Progress Exhibit 4 Renewable Energy Growth in Advanced Economies Cumulative Capacity (MW) Renewables % of Overall Mix 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 0 100K 200K 150K 50K 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 Australia Germany Japan United Kingdom United States Source: BloombergNEF, 2H 2021 Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) G L O B A L GUIDE This trend is most pronounced in advanced economies over the past decade. Renewable cost declines, ambitious climate targets, and expanded electricity markets have accelerated the deployment of wind and solar technologies in countries like Australia, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States (see Exhibit 4). rmi.org / 15Points of Progress Energy intensity in these countries also has been declining over the past 20 years, playing a central role in maximizing the level of services provided for every unit of energy produced. ii Although reductions in energy intensity in many advanced economies have been at least in part enabled by a transition from manufacturing to service industries, there also has been increased focus on energy efficiency. iii For example, Germany and Japan have sustained decades of focused attention on energy efficiency improvements. Singapore also has reduced energy and carbon intensity through strategic improvements in energy efficiency and investments in less carbon-intensive fuels (see Exhibit 5). 6 ii Energy intensity is the amount of energy used to produce a given level of output or activity. Using less energy to produce a product or provide a service results in reduced energy intensity. iii In the United States, the service industry accounts for approximately 80% of GDP (McKinsey however, in the short term, much of the focus is on energy-saving measures and the electrification of end uses (such as replacing gas-powered heating systems). 11 Lessons from Japan’s Success with Energy Efficiency G L O B A L GUIDE rmi.org / 17Points of Progress In many advanced economies, reductions in energy consumption, increases in renewable energy use, and shifts to more service-based industries have also facilitated the decoupling of emissions from GDP growth. Exhibit 6 (next page) shows the GDP and emissions trends for four large economies over the past 30 years. All four countries have experienced absolute decoupling, which occurs when GDP continues to grow as emissions decrease or remain stable. G L O B A L GUIDE rmi.org / 18Points of Progress Exhibit 6 Decoupling of GDP, Emissions, and Electricity Consumption in Advanced Economies Source: EIA, International Energ