德国发展研究所-绿色氢：对国际合作的影响：特别是南非-56页.pdf

Green Hydrogen Implications for International Cooperation With Special Reference to South Africa Andreas Stamm Tilman Altenburg Rita Strohmaier Ece Oyan Katharina Thoms IDOS DISCUSSION PAPER 9/2023 Green hydrogen Implications for international cooperation With special reference to South Africa Andreas Stamm, Tilman Altenburg, Rita Strohmaier, Ece Oyan and Katharina Thoms Bonn 2023 Dr Andreas Stamm is a senior researcher in the “Transformation of Economic and Social Systems” programme at the German Institute of Development and Sustainability IDOS. Email andreas.stammidos-research.de Dr Tilman Altenburg is head of the “Transformation of Economic and Social Systems” programme at the German Institute of Development and Sustainability IDOS. Email tilman.altenburgidos-research.de Dr Rita Strohmaier is a senior researcher in the “Transformation of Economic and Social Systems” programme at the German Institute of Development and Sustainability IDOS. Email rita.strohmaieridos-research.de Ece Oyan is a researcher in the “Transformation of Economic and Social Systems” programme at the German Institute of Development and Sustainability IDOS. Katharina Thoms is a research associate at the Institute for Technology and Innovation Management at RWTH Aachen University. Published with financial support from the Federal Ministry of Education and Research Bundesministerium fr Bildung und Forschung, BMBF Suggested citation Stamm, A., Altenburg, T., Strohmaier, R., Oyan, E., and to Muhammed Patel, Thabo Chauke, Gaylor Montmasson-Clair, Simon Roberts, Antonio Andreoni, Florian Gldner and Yan Chen for their valuable comments on it. The responsibility for errors remains with the authors. IDOS Discussion Paper 9/2023 IV Abstract Green hydrogen – produced with renewable energy – is indispensable for the decarbonisation of economies, especially concerning “hard-to-abate” activities such as the production of steel, cement and fertilisers as well as maritime transport and aviation. The demand for green hydrogen is therefore booming. Currently, green hydrogen is far more expensive than fossil fuel- based alternatives, but major initiatives are underway to develop a global green hydrogen market and bring costs down. Green hydrogen is expected to become cost-competitive in the mid-2030s. Given their endowment with solar and wind energy, many countries in the Global South are well- positioned to produce low-cost green hydrogen and are therefore attracting investments. Whether and to what extent these investments will create value and employment for – and improve environmental conditions in – the host economies depends on policies. This discussion paper analyses the potential industrial development spillovers of green hydrogen production, distinguishing seven clusters of upstream and downstream industries that might receive a stimulus from green hydrogen. Yet, it also underlines that there is no automatism. Unless accompanied by industrial and innovation policies, and unless there are explicit provisions for using revenues for a Just Transition, hydrogen investments may lead to the formation of socially exclusive enclaves. The paper consists of two parts. Part A provides basic information on the emerging green hydrogen market and its technological ramifications, the opportunities for countries with abundant resources for renewable energy, how national policies can maximise the effects in terms of sustainable national development and how this can be supported by international cooperation. Part B delves into the specific case of South Africa, which is one of the countries that has an advanced hydrogen roadmap and hosts several German and international development projects. The country case shows how a national hydrogen strategy can be tailored to specific country conditions and how international cooperation can support its design and implementation. Keywords Green hydrogen, energy transition, industrial development, industrial policy, South Africa, Just Transition, technological learning, international cooperation IDOS Discussion Paper 9/2023 V Contents Acknowledgements III Abstract IV Abbreviations VII Introduction 1 PART A The green hydrogen economy – opportunities and challenges 3 1 The need for green hydrogen 3 2 The variety of hydrogen colours and where Europe positions itself on the colour spectrum 4 3 The use of green hydrogen for decarbonisation 7 3.1 Where green hydrogen contributes to decarbonisation 8 3.1.1 Applications in industry 8 3.1.2 Hydrogen and synfuels in the transport sector 11 3.2 Where green hydrogen should not play a key role 11 4 Economic pathways and potentials for value creation, employment and technological learning 12 4.1 Green hydrogen as an opportunity for developing countries 12 4.2 Pathways to value creation, employment and technological learning 12 4.3 From factor-cost advantages to human-made competitive advantages 17 5 Uncertainties regarding the vision of a global hydrogen economy 18 5.1 Can the projected fast and steep scaling-up of renewable energy generation be achieved in countries with very good natural conditions 19 5.2 Can the global electrolysing capacities be scaled up as fast as the current hydrogen strategies assume 20 5.3 Can the required huge amounts of hydrogen and derivatives be transported in an economical, safe and clean way, given the long distances between potential exporting and importing countries 21 6 German development cooperation to support green hydrogen 22 6.1 Capacity-building for hydrogen technology foresight and industrial policy 23 6.2 Technical and vocational education and training 24 6.3 Sharing the gains of hydrogen investments the “Just Transition” dimension 25 6.4 Science and technology cooperation 26 6.5 Norms, standards and regulations 27 6.6 Multilateral programmes and South-South cooperation 27 IDOS Discussion Paper 9/2023 VI PART B The hydrogen economy in South Africa 28 7 South Africa’s dual challenge Energy-sector crises plus decarbonisation 28 8 The need for a Just Energy Transition 29 9 South Africa’s potential for renewable energy and green hydrogen 31 10 South Africa’s hydrogen ambitions 32 11 Opportunities for value creation 34 11.1 Ambitious roll-out of renewables and electrolysis, including backward linkages 34 11.2 Chemical conversion into derivatives, including for export 35 11.3 Decarbonisation of domestic industries and transport 36 11.4 Attraction of foreign direct investment in energy-intensive industries 37 12 Recommendations for Germany’s development cooperation with South Africa in the area of green hydrogen 37 References 41 Figures Figure 1 An expanding network of hydrogen trade routes, plans and agreements 1 Figure 2 The hydrogen colour spectrum 6 Figure 3 Industrial linkages of the green hydrogen economy 13 Figure 4 Options for sharing the gains of hydrogen investments 26 Figure 5 South Africa’s energy matrix 2019 29 Figure 6 Exports of PGM metals from South Africa 2015-2021 31 Tables Table 1 Renewable energy expansion in Africa Scenarios 19 IDOS Discussion Paper 9/2023 VII Abbreviations AEM anion exchange membrane BMBF Federal Ministry of Education and Research BMZ German Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development CBAM Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism CCS carbon capture and storage CCU carbon capture and use CH4 methane CO carbon monoxide CO2 carbon dioxide COP Conference of the Parties DRI direct reduced iron DSI Department of Science and Innovation EAF electric arc furnace EPC engineering, procurement and construction EU European Union FCEV fuel-cell electric vehicle FDI foreign direct investment GHG greenhouse gas GIZ German Agency for International Cooperation / Deutsche Gesellschaft fr Internationale Zusammenarbeit H2 hydrogen HySA Hydrogen South Africa IEA International Energy Agency IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency KfW German Credit Institute for Reconstruction km kilometre LH2 liquefied hydrogen LOHC liquid organic hydrogen carrier MENA Middle East and North Africa MJ megajoule Mt million tonnes MW megawatt NDC Nationally Determined Contribution PEM polymer electrolyte membrane PGM platinum-group metal PtX Power-to-X PV photovoltaic R environmental risks; and socio-political risks related to capital-intensive, large-scale investments that may develop into enclaves with minimal local linkages and encourage rent-seeking, which in turn may trigger political resistance. Multiple international agreements have been signed between potential import and export countries Figure 1. Figure 1 An expanding network of hydrogen trade routes, plans and agreements Source International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA, 2022, p. 12 In the case of Germany, international cooperation is now heavily focussing on green hydrogen. Multiple hydrogen partnerships have been established with potential export countries, especially countries and regions with excellent solar and wind resources as well as available, underutilised land. This includes the Gulf region, Northern Africa, South Africa and Namibia, Chile and India, among others. Their main objective is, on the German side, to accelerate investments in export projects to secure imports into Germany. This discussion paper approaches the topic from a IDOS Discussion Paper 9/2023 2 different perspective one that is also echoed in the hydrogen strategy of Germany’s Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, BMZ that of developing countries with favourable conditions for renewable energy generation. How can these countries harness the increasing green hydrogen demand for sustainable national development, accumulate new capabilities, make their industries fit for a low-carbon future, create additional employment as well as tax and foreign exchange earnings while minimising the risks How can green hydrogen thus contribute to a Just Transition The paper also explores how development cooperation can support such a transition. The paper consists of two parts. Part A provides basic information on the emerging green hydrogen market, the opportunities for countries with abundant resources for renewable energy and how development cooperation can help countries exploit the opportunities in support of sustainable national development. Part B delves into the specific case of South Africa, which is one of the countries that has an advanced hydrogen roadmap and hosts several German and international development projects. The country case shows how specific country conditions lead to tailored hydrogen strategies and, in the same vein, discusses the specific contribution of a bilateral cooperation programme. IDOS Discussion Paper 9/2023 3 PART A The green hydrogen economy – opportunities and challenges Part A consists of six sections. Section 1 clarifies the role of green hydrogen in the transition to low-carbon economies. Section 2 explains the various ways of producing hydrogen with different carbon footprints. Section 3 deals with the economic sectors demanding green hydrogen, while Section 4 outlines routes that green hydrogen producing countries can take to maximise development co-benefits and decarbonise their own economies. Section 5 highlights some uncertainties of the newly emerging market and how those create risks for potential exporters. Section 6 concludes the general part of the paper by drawing conclusions for development cooperation. 1 The need for green hydrogen The term “hydrogen economy” was first coined in the 1970s by the chemist John Bockris Brandon but the global hydrogen demand is expected to increase considerably, given its enormous potential for decarbonising industrial processes and transport. The benchmark of 110 TWh mentioned in the German National Hydrogen Strategy for 2030 translates into 3.3 Mt, twice as much as is currently used. For the same year, the EU plans to process 10 Mt of green hydrogen European Commission, 2023. 1 In 2050, demand in Germany is expected to reach 380 TWh – a sevenfold increase compared to current levels – whereas estimates for the EU project 2,700 TWh of green hydrogen to be used German Advisory Council on the Environment [SRU], 2021. Given the expected demand, 35 countries have published or are currently preparing a national hydrogen strategy, with many more countries undertaking measures in this regard World Energy Council – Germany [WEC], 2022. Twenty-nine parties of the United Nations Framework 1 The EU aims to increase annual production of green hydrogen to 10 million tonnes by 2030. IDOS Discussion Paper 9/2023 4 Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC mention hydrogen as a contributing factor to climate change mitigation and energy transition in their Nationally Determined Contributions NDCs Climate Watch, 2023. Although many of these strategies have been drafted on the level of nation states, it is clear that the green hydrogen transition will require comprehensive international coordination. Some of the big future consumers lack the renewable energy potential to satisfy demand domestically. This is especially the case for Europe, Japan and Korea, whereas other prospective big consumers – such as China, the United States, Canada and Australia – will likely not be dependent on imports Wappler et al., 2022. 2 The variety of hydrogen colours and where Europe positions itself on the colour spectrum Large quantities of low-carbon hydrogen are needed to decarbonise hard-to-abate economic activities around the world. The challenge is to increase its use as an energy carrier and feedstock in the respective industries and transport sectors and to produce it in the most climate friendly way possible. Not all hydrogen is the same. Corresponding to the way it is produced, different types, or “colours”, are distinguished, with very different carbon footprints see Figure 2. Today, the bulk of hydrogen is produced from fossil fuels, representing 6 per cent of natural gas use and 2 per cent of coal consumption and accounting for 830 Mt carbon dioxide CO2, which is equivalent to 2 per cent of global annual CO2 emissions in 2021 IEA, 2019a. Steam methane reforming is the predominant process for hydrogen production and employed in 95 per cent of EU hydrogen production. Fossil fuels such as natural gas and petroleum or coal are usually used as feedstock. Under pressure and high temperatures, the hydrocarbons contained in the energy sources are converted into methane CH4, carbon monoxide CO and CO2. These substances are then catalysed to form hydrogen. Given its high carbon intensity, this type of hydrogen is commonly referred to as “grey” hydrogen. A much smaller amount of current hydrogen production – so-called brown or black hydrogen – is based on the gasification of bituminous black and lignite brown coal, which is an even more polluting process. Yet, hydrogen can also be produced sustainably by either using renewable energy or other low- carbon sources or by captur