202010-399页版本全版-Energy Technology Perspectives 2020

Technology 2020 Perspectives Energy Technology 2020 Perspectives Energy The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 30 member countries, nullassociation countries and beyond. Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t to produce recycled metals and provide heat for industry; and to supply the energy needed for heating, cooking and other appliances in buildings. Reaching net-zero emissions in 2050 would require a much more rapid deployment of low-carbon power generation. In the Faster Innovation Case, electricity generation would be about 2.5 times higher in 2050 than it is today, requiring a rate of growth equivalent to adding the entire US power sector every three years. Annual additions of renewable electricity capacity, meanwhile, would need to average around four times the current record, which was reached in 2019. Electricity cannot decarbonise entire economies alone Hydrogen extends electricity’s reach. On top of the surging demand for electricity from across different parts of the economy, a large amount of additional generation is needed for low-carbon hydrogen. The global capacity of electrolysers, which produce hydrogen from water and electricity, expands to 3 300 GW in the Sustainable Development Scenario, from 0.2 GW today. In order to produce the low- carbon hydrogen required to reach net-zero emissions, these electrolysers would consume twice the amount of electricity the People’s Republic of China generates today. This hydrogen forms a bridge between the power sector and industries where the direct use of electricity would be challenging, such as in the production of steel from iron ore or fuelling large ships. Carbon capture and bioenergy play multifaceted roles. Capturing CO2 emissions in order to use them sustainably or store them (known as CCUS) 1 is a crucial technology 1 Our forthcoming ETP Special Report on CCUS provides our most in-depth look yet at this critical technology family and its role in reaching net-zero emissions. Energy Technology Perspectives 2020 Executive summary PAGE | 25 IE A . A ll r ight s r es er v ed. for reaching net-zero emissions. In the Sustainable Development Scenario, CCUS is employed in the production of synthetic low-carbon fuels and to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. It is also vital for producing some of the low-carbon hydrogen that is needed to reach net-zero emissions, mostly in regions with low-cost natural gas resources and available CO2 storage. At the same time, the use of modern bioenergy triples from today’s levels. It is used to directly replace fossil fuels (e.g. biofuels for transport) or to offset emissions indirectly through its combined use with CCUS. A secure and sustainable energy system with net-zero emissions results in a new generation of major fuels. The security of today’s global energy system is underpinned in large part by mature global markets in three key fuels – coal, oil and natural gas – which together account for about 70% of global final energy demand. Electricity, hydrogen, synthetic fuels and bioenergy end up accounting for a similar share of demand in the Sustainable Development Scenario as fossil fuels do today. The clean energy technologies we will need tomorrow hinge on innovation today Quicker progress towards net-zero emissions will depend on faster innovation in electrification, hydrogen, bioenergy and CCUS. Just over one-third of the cumulative emissions reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario stem from technologies that are not commercially available today. In the Faster Innovation Case, this share rises to half. Thirty-five percent of the additional decarbonisation efforts in the Faster Innovation Case come from increased electrification, with around 25% coming from CCUS, around 20% from bioenergy, and around 5% from hydrogen. Long-distance transport and heavy industry are home to the hardest emissions to reduce. Energy efficiency, material efficiency and avoided transportation demand (e.g. substituting personal car travel with walking or cycling) all play an important role in reducing emissions in long-distance transport and heavy industries. But nearly 60% of cumulative emissions reductions for these sectors in the Sustainable Development Scenario come from technologies that are only at demonstration and prototype stages today. Hydrogen and CCUS account for around half of cumulative emissions reductions in the steel, cement and chemicals sectors. In the trucking, shipping and aviation sectors, the use of alternative fuels – hydrogen, synthetic fuels and biofuels – ranges between 55% and 80%. Highly competitive global markets, the long lifetime of existing assets, and rapidly increasing demand in certain areas further complicate efforts to reduce emissions in these challenging sectors. Fortunately, the engineering skills and knowledge these sectors possess today are an excellent starting point for commercialising the technologies required for tackling these challenges. Energy Technology Perspectives 2020 Executive summary PAGE | 26 IE A . A ll r ight s r es er v ed. Emissions from existing assets are a pivotal challenge Power and heavy industry together account for about 60% of emissions today from existing energy infrastructure, climbing to nearly 100% in 2050 if no action is taken. Reaching net-zero will depend on how we manage the emissions challenge presented by these sectors’ long-lasting assets, many of which were recently built in Asian economies and could operate for decades to come. The situation underscores the need for hydrogen and CCUS technologies. Ensuring that new clean energy technologies are available in time for key investment decisions will be critical. In heavy industries, for example, strategically timed investments could help avoid around 40% of cumulative emissions from existing infrastructure in these sectors. Governments will need to play the decisive role While markets are vital for mobilising capital and catalysing innovation, they will not deliver net-zero emissions on their own. Governments have an outsized role to play in supporting transitions towards net-zero emissions. Long-term visions need to be backed up by detailed clean energy strategies involving measures that are tailored to local infrastructure and technology needs. Effective policy toolkits must address five core areas:  Tackle emissions from existing assets  Strengthen markets for technologies at an early stage of adoption  Develop and upgrade infrastructure that enables technology deployment  Boost support for research, development and demonstration  Expand international technology collaboration. Economic stimulus measures in response to the Covid-19 crisis offer a key opportunity to take urgent action that could boost the economy while supporting clean energy and climate goals, including in the five areas above. Energy Technology Perspectives 2020 Introduction PAGE | 27 IE A . A ll r ight s r es er v ed. Introduction Objective The Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) series has been informing the global energy and environment debate since 2006. Meeting the policy goals of energy security, economic development and environmental sustainability can only be achieved through energy technology development and innovation. Understanding the opportunities and challenges associated with existing, new and emerging energy technologies is critical to improving policy making to meet those goals. A cleaner and more secure energy sector requires the rapid uptake and use of a wide range of technologies, some of which are still at an early stage of commercial development or deployment, or still at the prototype stage. But technological change takes time: for example, solar photovoltaics (PV) and batteries took decades to be commercialised and become economically competitive. Moreover the evolution of existing and emerging technologies in terms of technical performance and cost is inherently uncertain – the success of PV and batteries was far from assured when they were developed and launched – and that uncertainty increases as we peer further into the future. The primary purpose of this edition of the ETP is to help decision makers in government and industry to meet the challenges of a cost-effective transition to a clean energy system with net-zero emissions, while enhancing energy security and ensuring access to modern energy services for all. ETP has evolved to improve its usefulness and relevance; it focuses throughout on exploring the opportunities and risks that surround the scaling up of clean energy technologies in the years ahead. It sets out where the key technologies stand today, their potential for wider deployment to meet energy policy goals, and the opportunities for and barriers to developing selected new technologies in the coming decades. It also looks at how past experiences can help governments design more effective policies to encourage innovation from research and development to market deployment. In addition, using a systems approach it looks at what governments and stakeholders need to do to accelerate the development and deployment of clean energy technologies with a particular focus on those that address multiple policy objectives. What we mean by clean energy technology Energy technology refers to the combination of hardware, techniques, skills, methods and processes used in the production of energy and the provision of energy services, i.e. the way we go about producing, transforming, storing, transporting and using energy. It follows that technological change in the energy sector refers to Energy Technology Perspectives 2020 Introduction PAGE | 28 IE A . A ll r ight s r es er v ed. changes over time in the types of technology that are used at various stages of the energy supply chain. Technological progress results from investment in basic and applied research, and from the development, demonstration and commercialisation of new technologies (see Chapter 6 for a detailed discussion of this innovation process and how to accelerate it). Clean energy technology comprises those technologies that result in minimal or zero emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and pollutants. For the purposes of this report, clean energy technology refers to low-carbon technologies which do not involve the production or transformation of fossil fuels – coal, oil and natural gas – unless they are accompanied by carbon capture, utilisation and storage and other anti-pollution measures. The International Energy Agency (IEA) defines low-carbon energy technologies as: renewable energy sources (renewables 1 ), nuclear power; carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS); hydrogen derived from low-carbon energy sources; technologies that improve the efficiency of energy transformation (e.g. switching from incandescent to light-emitting diode [LED] lighting); other non-fossil power and storage options; and cross-cutting technologies that result in minimal emissions of CO2 and pollution. Clean energy sources are growing in importance, but they still account for only around one-fifth of energy supply worldwide. In other words, the energy system in its present state is unsustainable. Scope and analytical approach The analysis in this report is underpinned by global projections of clean energy technologies derived from the IEA’s in-house ETP model, a quantitative framework composed of four interlinked modules covering energy supply (production and transformation), and energy use in the buildings, industry and transport sectors (see online documentation of the ETP Model). 2 Depending on the sector, the modelling framework includes 28 to 40 world regions or countries. The projection period in this report is 2019 to 2070 – ten years beyond the end-point of the previous ETP in 2017. The most recent year of complete historical data is 2019, though preliminary data are available for some countries and sectors for the first-quarter of 2020 which accordingly have been used to adjust the projections. We employ two scenarios to describe possible energy technology pathways over the next half century. The Sustainable Development Scenario – the focus in this report – sets out the major changes that would be required to reach the key energy-related 1 Renewables include bioenergy, though this energy source is sometimes used unsustainably (e.g. if not entirely replaced with replanted biomass) and in an unhealthy manner (e.g. the indoor use of wood for cooking on an open stove). 2 www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-perspectives-2020/etp-model. Energy Technology Perspectives 2020 Introduction PAGE | 29 IE A . A ll r ight s r es er v ed. goals of the United Nations Sustainable Development Agenda, including an early peak and rapid subsequent reductions in emissions in line with the Paris Agreement, universal access to modern energy by 2030 and a dramatic reduction in energy- related air pollution. The trajectory for emissions in the Sustainable Development Scenario is consistent with reaching global net-zero CO2 emissions by around 2070. 3 The Stated Policies Scenario takes into account energy- and climate-related policy commitments already made or announced by countries, including the Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement. The Stated Policies Scenario provides a baseline from which we assess the additional policy actions and measures needed to achieve the key energy and environmental objectives incorporated in the Sustainable Development Scenario. Neither scenario should be considered a prediction or forecast. Rather the scenarios offer valuable insights of the impacts and trade-offs of different technology choices and policy targets and provides a quantitative approach to support decision making in the energy sector and strategic guidance on technology choices for governments and stakeholders. The ETP scenarios are broadly consistent with those presented in the 2019 edition of the IEA’s flagship publication, World Energy Outlook (WEO) 4 , however the time horizon is extended to 2070 to underpin a more technology focussed view of the energy system. As well, the ETP scenarios incorporate updated assumptions for gross domestic product (GDP) and energy prices which have been affected with the outbreak of the global Covid-19 pandemic. This report draws on strategic discussions during an ETP-2020 consultation meeting with high-level energy officials and experts from government, industry, financial institutions, academia and international organisations on 3 July 2019. In addition